Why Xi Jinping's abrupt absence has sparked global speculation

India Today

6 hours ago

For over a decade, president Xi Jinping has stood unchallenged at the pinnacle of Chinese power, his grip over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the state likened to that of an emperor. Sweeping purges, restructured institutions and a cult of personality have cemented his position as the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.Yet, an unusual silence now surrounds Xi, sparking intense speculation. His sudden and unexplained absence from major international events, including the recent BRICS summit, has triggered alarm globally. In tightly controlled authoritarian systems, such absences are rarely accidental, often signalling either deliberate strategy or deeper instability.advertisementXi's last confirmed public appearance was on June 24, when he met Singapore's prime minister Lawrence Wong at Beijing's Great Hall of the People. After that, he disappeared from public view for nearly two weeks.But on July 7, China's state-run Xinhua News finally released an image of Xi laying a wreath at a memorial for martyrs of the Anti-Japanese War in Shanxi province. The tightly framed photo, devoid of any broader context, was meant to quell rumours. But it only deepened the mystery.
Observers noted that Xi had also missed a major constitutional loyalty ceremony in June—an annual event attended by more than 50 top ministers and party leaders. In the carefully choreographed world of Chinese elite politics, such absences are rarely benign.China watchers claim the country could be heading for a political shake-up. Over the past year, several of Xi's closest allies in the military and government have been abruptly removed or have disappeared from view. Defence minister Li Shangfu and foreign minister Qin Gang vanished, only to be later dismissed without explanation.Military generals such as Wei Fenghe were removed. Others, such as Xu Qiliang, have died, and key figures like He Weidong have vanished from the scene. This purge of loyalists has not gone unnoticed. Some see it as a sign of Xi consolidating power even further. Others view it as a desperate attempt to quell rising discontent or perhaps a move by rival factions to isolate him. At the same time, reports of corruption in the People's Liberation Army, especially its Rocket Force, led to embarrassment for Xi in the past couple of years.Observers maintain that amidst the silence, talk of succession is beginning to surface. Several names are circulating among China watchers and within elite party circles. Wang Yang, a reformist technocrat once seen as sidelined by Xi, is rumoured to be re-emerging as a potential successor.General Zhang Youxia, the current vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, has reportedly gained ground, particularly in the military ranks. The so-called Hu Chunhua faction, previously marginalised by Xi's rise, appears to be regaining strength. These developments come at a time when China's domestic challenges are multiplying—a stagnant real-estate sector, youth unemployment around 15 per cent, and persistent failures in high-tech industries such as semiconductors. Combined with ongoing trade tensions and Western sanctions, China's economy is facing its most serious headwinds in decades.advertisementMany senior observers dismissed these speculations as empty. A senior China analyst downplays the speculation, calling it part of an annual cycle of rumours and insisting that Xi is merely choosing to lie low as global attention focuses on crises elsewhere—from US president Donald Trump's tariff war to India-Pakistan tensions. 'It's a Chinese concept—lie low and move steadily towards your goal,' the expert said.That may be true. Xi has long believed in strategic patience, preferring silence over public confrontation. But history offers a cautionary tale. In the opaque world of the CCP, even supreme leaders have been quietly sidelined when they fall out of favour. Their removals are rarely announced. Instead, they fade from view—replaced, reimagined or erased.This same system that Xi has wielded with ruthless precision may now be turning against him. If the party believes he has become a liability, he could meet the same fate he reserved for others. The absence from key events, the quiet elimination of allies and the rise of rival figures all suggest a shift underway at the very top. For now, the CCP remains silent, as it always does in moments of transition. But behind the curtain, the balance of power may already be tilting.advertisementWhether Xi's absence stems from illness, isolation or being gradually sidelined by his own system, one thing is clear: China is entering a period of political uncertainty. The leader who once eliminated rivals may now be surrounded by them. As global attention focuses on Beijing, the growing silence speaks volumes. In China, such silence often precedes significant change.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch