Trump wields trade threat to play peacemaker in China's backyard

Time of India

2 days ago

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President Donald Trump 's tariff threats against Thailand and Cambodia pushed them toward ending their deadly border clash this week, showing again his willingness to use a trade war cudgel to stop armed conflict and upstaging China in its own backyard.Before shaking hands at a briefing following their ceasefire agreement Monday — ending five days of fighting that killed at least 42 people — both Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai thanked Trump in their remarks.The US president had wielded his top bargaining tool only days before, using access to the US market to end the fighting and to help his aspirations to be recognized as a peacemaker.While China also sent a representative to the talks, it kept a much lower profile than the US and made no similar threat of economic harm — in line with its approach to generally avoid intervening in conflict beyond seeking to facilitate discussions. And that allowed Trump to claim credit for stopping the bloodshed.'Trump will see this as a win. He wants to be seen as a peacemaker,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University. 'And the fact that China also took part is good, because involving both the US and China — the top two superpowers in the world — gives it balance, legitimacy, and material support.'The ceasefire reached Monday — in a conflict that traces its roots back more than a century — was the culmination of events that started only on Saturday, when Trump called both leaders and then posted on social media that US negotiators 'do not want to make any Deal, with either Country, if they are fighting.'The stakes were high for both countries, facing 36% tariffs as soon as Aug. 1, while neighboring exporters Indonesia and Philippines had been granted rates of 19% and Vietnam stands at 20%.Trump said Monday the trade talks would restart with both countries. Meanwhile, landing back in Bangkok, Thailand's Phumtham told reporters he spoke to the US leader and that 'we will get something very good out of it. He will do his best to give us as much as he can.''I am proud to be the President of PEACE!' Trump posted.The truce — negotiated in Malaysia, as the current chair of the regional grouping Asean — appeared to be holding after military officials from Thailand and Cambodia met Tuesday, although sporadic clashes have still been reported.The contrasting responses from Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlight the different ways they think major powers should engage with the world. Trump is intent on redrawing trade relationships, and has threatened to cut off access to the world's richest consumer market as a bargaining chip. Trump claims to have used a similar tactic to end the fighting earlier this year between India and Pakistan.The tariffs-for-peace strategy builds on White House efforts to leverage the duties for other geopolitical ends. Earlier this month, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil as he called on local authorities to drop charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro over an alleged coup attempt.China's principle of non-interference in other countries' affairs means it's long kept out of foreign entanglements. That's allowed Beijing to distinguish itself from Washington in the Global South, where it has pursued ties primarily by offering loans and development and refraining from calls for political change.'China hopes to mediate via regional organizations,' said Tang Xiaoyang, chair of the international relations department at Tsinghua University, referring to Asean. 'It's not like a country outside the region must use power to directly intervene — that's what Trump is doing. That doesn't align with China's usual diplomacy approach.'Foreign Minister Wang Yi used the conflict to address grievances that go back more than a century to British and French imperialism, saying last week that 'the root cause of this problem is the legacy of Western colonizers in the past, and now we need to face it calmly and handle it properly.'The tensions between Thailand and Cambodia trace back to maps based on the Franco-Siamese treaties of the early 1900s that laid out the boundaries between Thailand and Cambodia, which was then part of French Indochina. Sovereignty remains a point of contention over a handful of areas and ancient temples along the border.Southeast Asia has long sought to balance its economic and security relationships with China and the US, while still maintaining a sense of regional autonomy through Asean.China has made deeper inroads in recent years with Cambodia, which has the most at risk economically from the clash.Under Xi's flagship Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese companies have helped finance and build much of Cambodia's manufacturing and infrastructure — including new airports in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap, and the country's first expressway linking the capital to the port city of Sihanoukville. During Xi's visit to the country in April, they agreed to move forward with the $1.2 billion Funan Techo Canal, linking Cambodia's manufacturing belt with the Gulf of Thailand.Trump created a further opening for Chinese soft power when he decided to decimate the US Agency for International Development . Two projects in Cambodia that were canceled in February, focusing on child literacy and nutrition, were quickly replaced by Beijing with almost identical programs.For both Thailand and Cambodia, China is their top trading partner, comprising more than 20% of each of their total trade. The US comes in second, with about 13% for Thailand and 19% for Cambodia.But both Bangkok and Phnom Penh run trade deficits with the US, selling almost $44 billion and $12 billion more, respectively, than they buy. That's the type of trade relationship Trump wants to reverse, regardless of either countries' need for American exports.