Are we going back to days when Glasgow was murder capital of Europe?

The Herald Scotland

28-05-2025

So, in relative terms, such crimes are far less common than they were in Scotland's past. That will, however, be cold comfort to the families of those who have been the victim of such terrible crimes.
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As the spotlight falls, once again, on 'problematic youth' serious questions have been raised about how to deal with them. Immediate responses have inevitably turned to justice-based measures, such as increased use of police stop and search and harsher punishment for offenders to deter others. Other suggestions have included removing free bus passes and neighbourhood curfews.
Evidence around the effectiveness of such measures is, however, severely lacking. Research has shown that focused stop and search activity in 'hot spot' areas can have short-term benefits, albeit the longer term effects are less certain and there is a risk of shifting the problem to other, neighbouring, areas.
The evidence around using harsher punishments as a deterrent, quite frankly, doesn't stack up. While removing free bus passes and driving children off our streets will simply penalise the vast majority of young people who are law abiding and a credit to our society.
There is no one universal explanation as to why Scotland experienced such a large fall in violence in recent decades. Some have placed the plaudits at the door of the police and, in particular, the Violence Reduction Unit (VRU), which was established in 2005 to tackle the problem of knife crime and homicide.
The VRU certainly changed the narrative around violence in Scotland, recognising that it was a 'public health' problem that needed to be addressed by tackling the root causes. Most research evidence shows, however, that better education, rather than policing, is the key to reducing violence, and there has also been a great deal of educational work in Scottish schools and communities by organisations such as No Knives Better Lives and Medics Against Violence.
The Scottish Tories have called for the police to be given more stop and search powers (Image: free)
More widely however, there has been a policy shift since the election of the SNP government in 2007, when the introduction of the Getting It Right for Every Child policy started to shift the language from 'problematic children' towards 'child wellbeing'. Since then, we have seen a whole raft of new policies aimed at improving children's outcomes, such as reducing child poverty, narrowing the education gap, earlier and more effective intervention, and reducing the reliance on justice responses to offending. As a consequence, the number of children entering the justice system is at a record low and we no longer send children to prison in Scotland.
And yet, we cannot ignore the recent headlines nor minimise the significant impact of youth violence on those who fall victim to it. So, despite all the progress made, what has gone wrong?
Recent research shows that, while great strides have been made, there are still many children who are exposed to a whole range of factors that increase their likelihood of engaging in violence and other crimes.
Despite the Scottish Government's targets, persistent child poverty has not diminished. The cost of living crisis is affecting many low income households – especially those with children – creating strain and diminishing the capacity of parents to monitor their children's activities.
Housing and homelessness are acute problems, and some communities are subject to significant churn and change which destabilise neighbourhoods and reduce the scope for self-governance. The education gap between those at the highest and lowest ends of the deprivation spectrum has not narrowed. Rates of mental health and neurodiversity diagnoses have increased, but levels of service provision cannot keep up. Negative social media influences run rampant in the lives of our young people, but 'safe spaces' in communities where they could be supported and mentored by people in the real world have been stripped away as a consequence of austerity.
Lurking below all of this, is the spectre of serious and organised crime. Many children who carry weapons and get involved in serious violence are victims of exploitation at the hands of criminal gangs who use them to deal and transport drugs and other illicit items. Their youth and vulnerability make them perfect agents to do the dirty work of those who sit back and reap the rewards.
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In some regards, it is not unusual to see such a spike in violence during periods of good weather when young people congregate on beaches and other beauty spots towards the end of the academic year. However, a cluster of very serious incidents, along with rising concern about anti-social behaviour in communities and schools, is a worrying trend.
We should be reassured that Scotland has the structures and mechanisms in place to deal with such incidents in a sensitive, holistic, and trauma-informed way. However, whether it has the capacity and resource to do so is another matter.
A policing response is inevitably required to dampen down the immediate issues and to tackle the scourge of serious and organised crime; however, as a society, we all have a part to play in making society safer. A collective response is needed from public and third sector organisations to ensure early and effective intervention amongst those whose behaviour is at risk of escalating into serious violence. The private sector could play a greater role in supporting and investing in our most deprived communities, and partner with local government in sponsoring the return of youth facilities and safe spaces for children and young people.
And the general public should not tolerate or be bystanders to violence, ignoring or walking away when we could take steps to discourage, prevent or even, when safe to do so, intervene.
Let us remember that the vast majority of children in Scotland are good, law-abiding citizens who contribute positively to society – with a holistic approach, we can surely turn the tide on the small minority who are causing serious harm, just as we did 20 years ago.
Susan McVie is Professor of Quantitative Criminology, University of Edinburgh