Injury-plagued Astros are surging into second half of 2025 — but how?

New York Times

2 days ago

HOUSTON — How are they doing this?
The question has hounded the Houston Astros across an 81-game stretch defined by attrition, yet still defying expectations. Answers vary from obvious to obscure, some citing culture or clutch performances, while others cling to cliches that this club is turning into truths.
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Inevitability is part of the Astros' aura, but it isn't sufficient for what has transpired across the season's first three months. Houston can't find a cleanup hitter or diagnose a hand fracture for the one it already employs. Injuries have pared down the starting rotation to an almost unrecognizable state.
None of their position players will start next month's All-Star Game, either. It is a gross oversight for the game's most productive shortstop, but an outcome befitting of this entire ballclub.
Flexing the leather, JP!#BuiltForThis x @MLBPS_US pic.twitter.com/iYPHbNQsWi
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 26, 2025
Houston has spent eight seasons being hunted, hailed as favorites from the first February morning of spring training. Trading a five-tool player and failing to pay a franchise cornerstone changes the calculus. FanGraphs gave the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners higher odds of winning the American League West before the season began.
One morning this spring, manager Joe Espada stood before the players that remained — castoffs in one corner, core players in another and prospects populating the lockers in between. It would take all of them, Espada said, to accomplish any of the team's stated goals.
Twenty-nine other managers make the same speech every February. Few of them forecast it will define their season. Yet here sits Espada, managing an injury-ravaged roster while relying on those very replacements that motivation needed to reach.
'It's contagious what happens when you walk in that clubhouse,' Espada said after Thursday's 2-1 win against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Only six teams in franchise history have authored better first halves than what this skeleton crew completed on Thursday afternoon. Five of them finished as division champions. Houston is 81 games from becoming the sixth, playing at a 96-win pace while running out lineups most in the organization never thought would manifest.
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'You have a bunch of guys that believe in one another,' said Hunter Brown, who bullied the Phillies across seven scoreless innings on Thursday.
'The way everyone goes about their preparation, when you start to see results through that preparation, you know you can build some confidence in that. I think that's what you're seeing.'
Mystique may explain some of Houston's first-half charm, but in reality, much of the credit belongs to a pitching staff that has created a run prevention monster.
Only the Rangers are allowing fewer runs per game than the Astros, but no pitching staff in the sport is striking out more hitters than Houston's. None is generating a higher whiff rate, either.
Pair it with a defense that entered Thursday worth 19 outs above average, and Houston's path to victory is clear. Ask the Phillies, who scored once in 27 innings this week at Daikin Park.
Brown boasts baseball's lowest earned-run average and must be the front-runner for the American League Cy Young Award. Rotation-mate Framber Valdez has a 2.88 ERA during his platform year. Closer Josh Hader has converted all 21 of his save chances, while setup man Bryan Abreu sports a 1.72 ERA.
Those four men hold the key to Houston's season. Two of their five counterparts from the season-opening rotation have already undergone Tommy John surgery. Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco threw just 80 1/3 innings before blowing out.
Since Blanco's last appearance on May 17, Astros starters have a 3.16 ERA. Only three rotations entered Thursday with a lower one across that same span. Among the men who've started in that span: Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walter and Jason Alexander. Alexander and Walter were waiver claims. Gusto got passed over in the Rule 5 draft.
'We don't have many rules,' utilityman Mauricio Dubón said. 'If you perform, if you're ready to go at 7 p.m., OK, good. Get between the lines. We try to make everybody feel comfortable, and I think that's the biggest thing.'
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On Wednesday, Espada wrote his 76th different batting order during the season's 80th game. He has deployed 67 players — 43 position players and 24 pitchers — while Houston's injured list resembles a roster that could compete with the Colorado Rockies.
Yordan Alvarez has not taken an at-bat since May 2. Houston has won 32 of the 50 games he's missed. Journeyman Cooper Hummel, cut by Houston in spring training and jettisoned by two other clubs already this season, homered Tuesday to win a one-run game. Rookie Cam Smith lifted a two-out single on Thursday to win another.
'We're going to fight you for 27 outs, I'll tell you that,' Espada said, 'This team is going to fight you for 27 outs.'
Neither pluck nor grit is quantifiable, but how else can Espada explain his club's 157 two-out runs? Only four teams entered Thursday with more. Houston has already won 17 of the 24 one-run games it has played this season. It won 18 one-run games last year.
'We play until the last out, the very last pitch,' Smith said. 'I love that about this club. That's winning baseball, and that's what we crave: to show up every day and compete the way we do.'
CAM SMITH COMES THROUGH! #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/Y6dtPpXF9J
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 26, 2025
Smith, the precocious rookie put on the Opening Day roster with just 32 games of professional experience, has hit fifth in each of the past three games. He hit cleanup on Sunday — the seventh different player Espada has slotted there this season — but ceded the spot to Jake Meyers on Thursday.
No qualified hitter in baseball has improved his batting average more from 2024 than Meyers, one of the unforeseen surprises buoying an offense in need of any spark imaginable. Fifteen teams have a higher slugging percentage. Twenty are scoring more runs.
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Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz and Jose Altuve all hit within the top five of Houston's Opening Day lineup. Walker and Diaz hit sixth and seventh on Thursday. Altuve finished the game 1-for-4, dipping his OPS to .738.
According to Baseball-Reference, Walker, Diaz and Altuve accrued 9.3 WAR last season. They finished the first half worth minus-0.2, according to Baseball-Reference.
Again, it begs the question: How are they doing this?
(Photo of Jeremy Peña: Tim Warner / Getty Images)