Trump trade war, Middle East tensions overshadow BRICS summit
Analysts and diplomats have said the lack of cohesion in an enlarged BRICS, which doubled in size last year, may affect its ability to become another pole in world affairs. They also see the summit's moderate agenda as an attempt by member countries to stay off Trump's radar.
Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has some of his priorities, such as debates on artificial intelligence and climate change, front and centre for the talks with key leaders not in attendance.
Lula said in his speech on Sunday that 'we are witnessing the unparalled collapse of multilateralism' and that the meeting is taking place 'in the most adverse global scenario' of the four times Brazil has hosted it. He called for the group to promote peace and mediate conflicts.
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'If international governance does not reflect the new multipolar reality of the 21st century, it is up to the BRICS to contribute to its renovation,' Lula said at the opening of the summit.
China's President Xi Jinping did not attend a BRICS summit for the first time since he became his country's leader in 2012. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will make an appearance via videoconference, continues to mostly avoid traveling abroad due to an international arrest warrant issued after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Egypt's Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi are also absent from the gathering in Rio de Janeiro.
Three joint statements expected
The restraint expected in Rio de Janeiro marks a departure from last year's summit hosted by Russia in Kazan, when the Kremlin sought to develop alternatives to U.S.-dominated payment systems which would allow it to dodge Western sanctions imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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A source involved in the negotiations told journalists Friday that some members of the group want more aggressive language on the situation in Gaza and Israel's attack on Iran. The source spoke under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the matter publicly.
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'Brazil wants to keep the summit as technical as possible,' said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation think tank and university.
Consequently, observers expect a vague final declaration regarding Russia's war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East.
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As well as suiting Brazil, a watered-down and non-controversial statement may be made easier by the absences of Putin and Xi, Stuenkel said. Those two countries have pushed for a stronger anti-Western stance, as opposed to Brazil and India that prefer non-alignment.
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A Brazilian government official told The Associated Press on Thursday that the group is expected to produce three joint statements and a final declaration, 'all of which less bounded by current geopolitical tensions.' The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the summit's preparations.
João Alfredo Nyegray, an international business and geopolitics professor at the Pontifical Catholic University in Parana, said the summit could have played a role in showing an alternative to an unstable world, but won't do so.
'The withdrawal of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the uncertainty about the level of representation for countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are confirming the difficulty for the BRICS to establish themselves as a cohesive pole of global leadership,' Nyegray said. 'This moment demands high level articulation, but we are actually seeing dispersion.'
Avoid Trump's tariffs
Brazil, the country that chairs the bloc, has picked six strategic priorities for the summit: global cooperation in healthcare; trade, investment and finance; climate change; governance for artificial intelligence; peace-making and security; and institutional development.
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It has decided to focus on less controversial issues, such as promoting trade relations between members and global health, after Trump returned to the White House, said Ana Garcia, a professor at the Rio de Janeiro Federal Rural University.
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'Brazil wants the least amount of damage possible and to avoid drawing the attention of the Trump administration to prevent any type of risk to the Brazilian economy,' Garcia said.
While Brazil advocated on Sunday for the reform of Western-led global institutions, a cornerstone policy of the group, the country's government wants to avoid becoming the target of tariffs — a predicament it has so far largely escaped.
Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs against the bloc if they take any moves to undermine the dollar.
'Best opportunity for emerging countries'
BRICS was founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but the group last year expanded to include Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.
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As well as new members, the bloc has 10 strategic partner countries, a category created at last year's summit that includes Belarus, Cuba and Vietnam.
That rapid expansion led Brazil to put housekeeping issues — officially termed institutional development — on the agenda to better integrate new members and boost internal cohesion.
Despite notable absences, the summit is important for attendees, especially in the context of instability provoked by Trump's tariff wars, said Bruce Scheidl, a researcher at the University of Sao Paulo's BRICS study group.
'The summit offers the best opportunity for emerging countries to respond, in the sense of seeking alternatives and diversifying their economic partnerships,' Scheidl said.
For Lula, the summit is a welcome pause from a difficult domestic scenario, marked by a drop in popularity and conflict with Congress.
The meeting also represents an opportunity to advance climate negotiations and commitments on protecting the environment before November's COP 30 climate talks in the Amazonian city of Belem.
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