Putin Warned of Russian Demographic Crisis
In a meeting reported by Russian state media and posted on the Kremlin website, labor minister Anton Kotyakov told Putin that by 2030 the country could be as many as three million workers short in the labor force.
Russian demography expert Igor Efremov told Newsweek the only measure the Russian government can take to address the shortage is to draw on migrant workers, but this would be difficult because the move would be considered a security threat.
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.
Sanctions have buffeted but not delivered a knockout blow to Russia's economy, although war losses in Ukraine and escaping the draft have contributed to a labor shortage that has contributed to rising inflation.
Putin has highlighted population growth as a national priority following a yearslong decline in Russia's birthrate. An inability to replace retiring workers and boost a dwindling workforce could pose an economic problem for Russia that may outlast the current conflict with Ukraine.
During a cabinet discussion Tuesday, Kotyakov, minister for labor and social protection, warned that Russia is entering a period of profound transformation of its labor market.
By 2030, Russia will need at least 2.4 million additional workers according to his ministry's forecasts. The upper range of this prediction is 3.1 million or the combined population of the major cities of Kazan and Novosibirsk, he added.
Citing a survey of 260,000 employers, Kotyakov said there was a shortage of skilled workers, especially in construction and manufacturing. By the start of the next decade, Russia needs to involve 10.9 million people in the economy, to make up for the 10.1 million who will retire and fill an additional 800,000 jobs, he added.
Other lawmakers have also sounded the alarm about the country facing a demographic crisis.
Valery Tumin, from the parliament's economic policy committee, said an aging population and a declining birthrate have exacerbated worker shortages in industry, agriculture, transport, and the high-tech sector.
Efremov told Newsweek Russia's labor shortage has been ongoing for years in Russia and has led to a slowdown in economic growth and a relative acceleration of inflation.
The only government policy that can reduce the severity of this problem, without solving it completely is to lower barriers to international labor migration, he said.
However, the current migration policy of the government is increasingly restrictive, because labor migration is often seen as a security threat, he added.
The labor shortage due to demographic problems is an inevitable property of the demographic structure of the Russian population, about which "little can be done" in the immediate future, Efremov said.
Russian Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov, per the newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets: "By 2030, the Russian economy will need at least 2.4 million additional workers, and the total number of people who need to be involved in labor activities will be 10.9 million."
He added: "there is a particularly acute shortage of skilled workers."
Russian demography expert Igor Efremov told Newsweek: "The labor shortage has been observed for years in Russia and has already led to a slowdown in economic growth and a relative acceleration of inflation. This process is... slow and lasting."
He added: "The only government policy that can reduce the severity of this problem in the coming years, but not solve it completely, is to weaken barriers to international labor migration. But the migration policy of the government is increasingly restrictive, because labor migration is often seen as a security threat."
Russia's worker shortage and declining birthrate are long-term problems for the Kremlin.
Kotyakov has called for education reform, career guidance, internships, training and increasing the attractiveness of blue-collar professions through salaries, working conditions and career prospects.
At the same cabinet meeting, Russia's deputy prime minister Tatyana Golikova reported on the Kremlin's national family project over the next six years, which includes financial support for those with large families as well as first-time parents.
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