Barclays Research Expects AI to Recast Global Supply Chains and Labor Markets
'AI is already changing many aspects of the modern economy and financial markets and will continue to do so for years to come,' says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research. "The end result promises to be fascinating – and most likely a net positive for the world at large.'
The Geopolitics of Minerals and Minds
Barclays Research highlights the strategic vulnerabilities created by the global reliance on a handful of countries for critical rare earth elements and skilled talent. Barclays analysts warn that this concentration threatens supply chain stability amid rising geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and climate-related shocks.
AI and the New Skills Divide
Drawing on eight years of data, Barclays analysts find that while AI's overall effect on employment remains modest, it is already reshaping expectations of skills and tasks, especially in higher-paid, white-collar roles. As adoption accelerates, the potential for broader macroeconomic effects continues to grow.
AI's Market Divide
Barclays analysts argue that the spread of AI could have far-reaching implications for investment returns, drawing parallels to past technological revolutions such as the post-WW2 revolution in durable goods, the rise of the internet in the 1990s and the data boom of the 2010s. AI could drive gains in equities, upward pressure on yields across the curve and a moderately stronger dollar.
Deep Impact
The sudden emergence of DeepSeek from China was a 'Sputnik moment' for the US and other developed markets, galvanizing a new wave of investment in AI infrastructure. Barclays analysts believe that the capital expenditure arms race has further to run, not least due to the vast computing power needed for emerging, multi-step workloads.
Notes to editors:
Barclays Equity Gilt Study is a flagship annual publication that combines market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset dataset spanning over 100 years. It provides uniquely rich data and commentary on long-term asset returns in the UK and US. Data for the UK goes back to 1899, while the US data, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago, runs from 1925.
About Barclays Investment Bank
Our vision is to be the UK-centred leader in global finance. We are a diversified bank with comprehensive UK consumer, corporate and wealth and private banking franchises, a leading global investment bank and a strong, specialist US consumer bank. Through these five divisions, we are working together for a better financial future for our customers, clients and communities. The Investment Bank helps money managers, financial institutions, governments, supranational organisations and corporate clients manage their funding, investing, financing, and strategic and risk management needs. www.barclays.com/ib
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