Growth In The District - What It Means For All Of Us

Scoop

5 days ago

At Council, we often get asked about growth and what it means for us in the Horowhenua. Here's a breakdown of how we're growing, where it's coming from and what we're doing to plan for it.
If you were to compare Horowhenua to a life stage, we would be that slightly awkward, pimply faced teen. We'd be trying out different hair colours, growing out of school uniforms, listening to angsty teen anthems and fuelled on bowls of Weetbix, frozen dumplings and endless packets of two-minute noodles.
As a district, we're in between big and small. We have a beautiful mix of urban and rural, made up of towns and settlements that are home to close knit communities. But it won't be long before Levin (our biggest town) is on its way to becoming a city. It's hard to imagine what that change will look like for us, or what it will mean for our communities, houses, town centres, schools and businesses. Speak to one of the many 65+ year olds that call Horowhenua home and they will say it wasn't that long ago that St Annes Street in Levin backed onto paddocks filled with sheep and you could buy your first house for the same price as a ride on lawn mower in today's currency.
So how fast are we actually growing?
Up until about 2014, Horowhenua had almost no growth, according to Census data, between 1991 and 2013 our population grew by just 200. This began to change, when we saw our population jump by more than 3000 in 2018 – a trend that has continued in the 2023 Census when our population increased by another 4000.
Growth forecasts have pulled back since 2021, lowering the population and household numbers originally forecast, but Horowhenua is predicted to continue as the fastest growing district in the Manawatū-Whanganui region, and to grow strongly alongside the greater Wellington region councils.
Our district's population is projected to grow at a rate of 1.5% per annum from 2025 until 2030, increasing to 2.1% per annum until 2044. This means our population will increase to more than 54,000 by 2044 and more than 66,000 by 2054.
According to the 95th growth rate, in the first 10 years of the Long Term Plan our population is expected to grow by 700 per year on average. Looking back over the last 10 or so years, our annual population growth has been (on average)
2013-2018 – 400 per year
2019-2023 – 800 per year
From the 2023 Census to the 2024 population estimates, our population grew by 900 in that year alone. This all indicates that our real-world growth is tracking very close to what our population projections expected. We also regularly review these projections – however it is important to remember that short term shocks and year to year variation occurs – given the long range nature of our work, we need to plan for the trendline, not the headline.
People are moving from places like Wellington, Kāpiti and Auckland due to rising house prices, congestion and a change in flexible/remote working arrangements. Domestic migrants are looking for affordable, lifestyle-focused alternatives. Our proximity to Wellington and the highway means we're appealing to these former city dwellers.
We've noticed it in subdivision growth in Levin, Foxton Beach, Ōhau, and Waitārere Beach, and in an increase in residential building consents and infrastructure pressure in semi-urban and rural areas.
Where are we growing and does this impact how we prioritise infrastructure investment?
Census data tells us that our district had 36,696 residents across the district in March 2023. With Levin having more than half of the total district's population, we need to ensure water and wastewater service delivery is adequate and resilient for residents of today and into the future. Council has committed to spending $284m on water projects alone over the next 10 years, with a further $340m investment anticipated for the following 20 years. Significant projects include upgrades to the Levin Wastewater Treatment Plant and building a more resilient water supply for Levin and Ōhau, with major investment committed to projects across the district.
Horowhenua District's Population as of 2023 Census data
Levin – 19,539
Rural – 4,491
Foxton – 3,384
Waitārere-Waikawa-Hōkio - 3,342
Ōhau -Manakau** - 2,262
Foxton Beach – 2,130
Shannon – 1,548
TOTAL – 36,696
*Hokio Beach is split between Waitārere and Waikawa for SA2 (Census Unit) purposes, we have grouped into a single unit.
**Ōhau-Manakau is a single SA2 (Census Unit)
From 2018-2023 we've seen the biggest percentage change in the 15-29 year age group at 31%, 65+ age group at 28%, 30-64 age group at 19% and under 15's changed by 15%.
Is it just population growth, or are we also seeing economic growth?
The two go hand-in-hand. As a district we've experienced consistent growth in both new and existing businesses since 2018. This has been driven by a combination of entrepreneurship, infrastructure investment, industrial expansion, and coordinated support from Council and economic development agency The Horowhenua Company Limited. The district has benefited from diversification, modern business park development, and targeted efforts to build workforce capability and attract private investment.
What's Council doing about growth?
Council has prepared the Horowhenua Growth Strategy 2040, which sets out where we expect to grow over this period. It covers urban growth areas for both housing and business – but land needs to be rezoned under the District Plan before development can occur (e.g. change the zoning from Rural to Residential) – so the growth strategy is pretty high level. We have started rezoning land already, with Tara-Ika rezoned to allow development last year and a proposal to rezone land in the north-west Levin area currently underway.
When planning urban growth areas, we consider things like infrastructure requirements, transport links, environmental suitability, and community amenities—doing our best to ensure growth is coordinated rather than reactive.
Council is required by the National Policy Statement for Urban Development to provide sufficient zoned and serviced land to meet demand for housing and business land – the Growth Strategy, the District Plan, and other key Council documents like the Infrastructure Strategy and Long Term Plan help us to do this.
We are aware the Government announced a 'stop work' notice on District Plan changes last week – with a few exemptions. This announcement does impact some of the growth-related plan changes we were intending to do and may impact our ability to enable development in the way needed to support growth. However, this announcement is very fresh and we are awaiting further details and direction to understand how this will impact our work, including whether the exemptions will apply to this work.
We don't build houses, but we help create the conditions for housing supply to meet demand.
This includes rezoning land to allow for housing or mixed use, working with developers and iwi/hapū to bring land to market, improving consent processes and development guidance, advocating for central government investment in housing and infrastructure, and planning and delivering infrastructure projects.
We prioritise infrastructure investment through our Long Term Plan, with a focus on:
Expanding and upgrading water and wastewater systems
Strengthening transport networks and connectivity
Future-proofing community facilities like libraries, pools, and recreation areas
We may be in our awkward teenager phase, but Council doesn't prepare for growth alone. We engage with and listen to you, our community, to help guide our decision making. We work with government agencies like Waka Kotahi NZTA, Kāinga Ora and the Ministry for the Environment. We engage Iwi/hapū to ensure mana whenua aspirations are reflected in planning and we work with the likes of developers, schools, the Ministry of Health and community providers to align services and infrastructure with growth.
What does growth mean for all of us?
A growing district brings both pros and cons. The benefits include:
A larger rating base
As more homes are built, the total rates burden is shared by more ratepayers, which can help reduce the impact on existing households in the long run.
A stronger local economy
More people means more spending in local shops, cafes, and services—helping our businesses grow and supporting local jobs.
Better infrastructure funding
Growth unlocks access to central government and developer funding for key infrastructure projects—roads, pipes, parks, and community facilities—that might not otherwise be affordable – the more people per pipe to share the costs, the more affordable. We might also get improved services by other infrastructure providers – such as more schools, or a public transport system.
More housing choice
Growth encourages more housing supply, including smaller homes, retirement options, and rental choices—helping to ease pressure on the housing market over time.
Vibrant communities
New families, businesses, and community groups bring fresh energy and ideas, making Horowhenua an even more vibrant and connected place to live.
The challenges of growth that need to be navigated are:
Upfront infrastructure costs
To prepare for more people, we often need to invest in roads, pipes, and services before the growth fully arrives. That can feel unfair if you're already paying rates and struggling with costs, but in Horowhenua we have development contributions, which means the 30% of total expenditure that relates to growth is paid for not by current ratepayers, but by developers and people subdividing or building new homes in the district who will benefit from the infrastructure that's required to support that growth.
Pressure on services
Rapid growth can strain existing services—like waste collection, libraries, roads, and stormwater—if we don't plan carefully.
Changing character
Growth can bring change to neighbourhoods, landscapes, and how places feel. That change can be exciting—or unsettling.
Uncertainty
It can be difficult to predict the exact when, where, and what type of growth – factors outside of Council's control (like market forces, interest rates, and central government policy) could cause growth to happen more quickly or more slowly than we expect, or limit the actions Council can take to keep up with growth. To counteract this, we regularly review growth projections and are improving monitoring of development uptake. This means we can adjust our approach if needed – such as speeding projects up or slowing them down. However, the Government's direction to 'stop work' on plan changes puts us at risk of being unable to keep up with demand for housing and business land. We are awaiting further detail from the Government about this.
Have you noticed a change in traffic congestion, available GP appointments, the lead in time required to enrol the kids in a local school, or perhaps more options to eat out at night? Much like a caring parent, who's navigating the angsty teenage years, as kaitiaki we want to make sure that Horowhenua is not just prepared for growth and our next 'life stage', but that with clever strategic planning, collaborative partnerships and our community's best interests at heart, in years to come we will look back and be proud of the decisions we've made and the work we've done to shape our district.
We'll be discussing growth among other things tonight in a Facebook Live session - feel free to join us and share any questions you may have, and we will do our best to answer them.