Whole Hog Politics: Democrats diving headfirst into 2028 race
There's 'testing the waters' and then there's going off the high dive — for instance, announcing a visit to the Iowa State Fair by posting a video of yourself that begins with a crowd chanting your name over Queen's 'We Will Rock You.'
Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego (D) is not acting bashful about the possibility that he may contend for his party's 2028 presidential nomination, nor is he alone.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom campaigned in South Carolina this week, taking special pains to reach out to black voters, including those represented by Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.). Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), meanwhile, was kicking off a new national effort funded by Democratic mega-donors in Philadelphia. And, perhaps sensing that ours is not a time for reluctant self-promoters, the previously bashful Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky, kicked the door wide open to a potential run.
Having watched Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) soak up lots of limelight for her successful support of Zohran Mamdani in New York's primary mayoral election last month, the rest of the Democratic field seems to be in a hurry to get into the conversation.
But where to begin? As the differing destinations of Gallego and Newsom suggest, there isn't a great deal of clarity just now about where and in what order the Democratic nominating process will unfold. The party ripped up its primary calendar in 2024 in order to protect former President Biden, who was a vulnerable incumbent, pushing away progressive voters in New Hampshire and Iowa in favor of more moderate electorates in South Carolina and Michigan. This time, it's very much an open question.
Gallego, Newsom, Shapiro and Beshear join Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in the pool of Democratic water testers visiting potential early primary states and courting party power brokers. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and her 2024 running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are both potential contenders, but one imagines Democrats will be very much in the mood for something new and different next time around.
Different like you-know-who.
After a springtime campaign swing that drew massive crowds in California and the rest of the West, Ocasio-Cortez was already looking formidable in her party. And, almost as impressive as the crowds, was the implicit endorsement from two-time progressive presidential heartthrob, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Starting the summer with a member of the same Democratic Socialist movement in her own hometown stunning the Democratic establishment was another boost.
Nor does it hurt that by Election Day 2028, she'll still only be 38 years old, the right age for a party that has revived its traditional affection for youth politics in the wake of an extraordinarily embarrassing episode with Biden and his eventual ouster from the 2024 race. She's also remade her image with party elites, going from the bomb-thrower of her first term to one who keeps her policies radical but learned to play an inside game in Washington.
The way Ocasio-Cortez would win the Democratic nomination would not look so different from the way a New York radical on the other side, President Trump, succeeded with Republicans in 2016. And she is right now getting one of the essential ingredients in that recipe: a crowded field among the normies.
That's inevitable in a party where so many believe that 2028 will be a very good year for Democrats. If Vice President Vance remains the front-runner for the Republican nomination; it won't be hard for members of the blue team to imagine how their party will win a change election based on turning the page from the Trump administration. That will entice lots of top-tier Democrats into the field.
The implication of that knowledge is what has Gallego, Newsom and company stampeding to the (maybe) early primary states. If the Democrats are going to end up where they have in every open presidential contest since 2004 — a safer center-left pick fighting a left-wing favorite — the fight to be the surviving safe choice is already well underway. With good reason. The mainstream choice has won the party's nod every time, except for former President Obama's 2008 upset.
What we will find out in the coming months is whether Ocasio-Cortez has any real competition to be the favorite of the far left. So far, she's swimming in her own lane.
Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@GMAIL.COM. If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be made public, please specify.
NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 42 percent
Average Disapproval: 53.2 percent
Net Score: -11.2
Change from one week ago: No change
Change from one month ago: +0.4 points
[Average includes: Marist College 43 percent approve – 52 percent disapprove; Emerson College 45 percent approve – 46 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac University 41 percent approve – 54 percent disapprove Ipsos/Reuters 41 percent approve – 57percent disapprove; Gallup 40 percent approve – 57 percent disapprove]
No consensus on school choice for religious institutions
Do you favor tax-funded vouchers that help parents pay for tuition for their children to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools?
Favor: 35 percent
Oppose: 38 percent
Neither favor nor oppose: 25 percent
[National Opinion Research Center survey of 1,158 adults, June 5-9]
ON THE SIDE: CAN'T HOLD A CANDLE TO THE ORIGINAL
Writer Iris Gottlieb explains the origin of the restaurant birthday song for Gravy: 'Twenty years ago, when I worked at Bennigan's, they kept it relatively simple, singing diners a bouncier rendition of the classic happy birthday song: 'Happy, happy birthday/It's your special day/Happy, happy birthday/That's all we're here to say (hey!) /Happy, happy birthday/May all your dreams come true/Happy, Happy birthday/From Bennigan's to you (hey!)' Restaurants often have their own version of the 'Happy Birthday Song,' because the classic song didn't enter the public domain until the 2010s. … In 1988, Warner Chappell Music purchased the rights and started making up to $2 million yearly on 'Happy Birthday to You.' … Companies regularly used alternate happy birthday songs to avoid paying licensing fees. Bennigan's added some pizazz with on-beat claps and a tambourine. And the rest is restaurant history.'
PRIME CUTS
In Virginia, GOP looks to run a Biden-era campaign: Semafor: 'On the stump, [Gov. Glenn Youngkin's] aspiring successors clearly see power in 'memory lane.' 'If you remember where we were in 2021 — yes, they were bad times,' said [Lt. Gov Winsome Earle-Sears, her party's gubernatorial nominee]. 'COVID shut down our schools? No, COVID didn't do that. It was the governor who shut down our schools, shut down our businesses, shut down our houses of worship.' [Attorney General Jason Miyares], the only statewide official seeking reelection to his current job, denounced [Democratic challenger Jay] Jones' criminal justice reform advocacy, linking it to a sexual assault case that Republicans blamed on Loudoun County's inclusive gender policies. … He warned that all of the gains Republicans had made on public safety — often by letting the state move in to take cases 'woke' local prosecutors had dropped — could be lost.'
The data on angry politics: The Liberal Patriot: 'This recent academic paper explored the psychological content of social media postings from heavy partisan users from 2013 to 2024 (on issues including abortion, democracy, gender equality, gun control, immigration, taxes and inequality, climate, and trade), finding one emotion standing out way above all the others: anger. The same pattern was found on the supply side when the researchers examined the emotional content of the tweets from official Republican Party and Democratic Party accounts from 2013 to 2024 and in speeches and public interactions made by Trump, Biden, and Harris from 2023 to 2024. 'Supply matches demand,' according to their findings. Anger dominated all other emotions in terms of social media messages from party officials and in many public statements from leaders, with hope emerging a bit more in the official output of Democrats last cycle.'
SHORT ORDER
Senate GOPers fear Musk's America Party could cost them majority by splitting populist voters — The Hill
Independent Dan Osborn tries again for Nebraska Senate, this time targeting Ricketts — The Hill
North Carolina Dems clearing the field for former Gov. Roy Cooper to seek Tillis seat – WRAL
Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton, wife of Senate candidate Ken Paxton, files for divorce after years of standing by her husband amid allegations of infidelity, corruption — KUT
Burt Jones, Georgia's deep-pocketed lieutenant governor who helped Trump try to overturn 2020 results, launches campaign for state's top job — The Hill
Ernst, top Iowa GOP leaders back Rep. Randy Feenstra for governor — KCCI
Hogg's PAC faces first big test in Tuesday special election in Arizona — Politico
TABLE TALK: LANGUAGE BARRIER
'And such good English, such beautiful. Where did you learn to speak so beautifully?' — President Trump to Joseph Boaka, president of Liberia, the African nation founded by Americans, the official language of which is English
You should email us! Write to WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@GMAIL.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — at least first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the multitasking Meera Sehgal, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!
FOR DESSERT: RICKY BOBBY, OFFICIANT
WSOC: 'A sign advertising a car show at a cemetery is raising eyebrows in Union County [North Carolina]. Families of loved ones buried at Forest Lawn East Cemetery say it's disrespectful to host an event at a place that's considered to be sacred ground. … [Nancy Hare, whose parents are buried there] says she was shocked owners started advertising a car show at the cemetery for August 16. The event was planned for a grassy area in a new part of the cemetery. 'We find it disrespectful that they are promoting it as 'family fun and horsepower and good vibes and food and prizes,'' Hare said. 'It's just not the venue for it.' Hare says other families shared their distaste with the event on social media. When [a reporter] brought those complaints to the managing partner of Forest Lawn East, he claimed he hadn't received any complaints. … Late Wednesday, Channel 9 learned that the Eventbrite listing for the event showed that the car show was now canceled.'
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of 'The Hill Sunday' on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Meera Sehgal contributed to this report.
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