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Yahoo
5 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Dollar Edges Higher with T-Note Yields
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.19%. The dollar recovered from a 2.5-week low and moved higher as T-note yield rose after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-month low, a sign of labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy and positive for the dollar. The dollar was initially under pressure on Thursday as improved prospects for an EU trade agreement with the US boosted the euro. Also, Thursday's weaker-than-expected US PMI and new home sales reports were bearish for the dollar. More News from Barchart As Silver Scores a Nearly 14-Year High, New Records Could Be Just Around the Corner for Precious Metals Will Metals Stay in the Spotlight Wednesday? Possible EU-US Trade Deal Weighs on the Dollar Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -4,000 to a 3-month low of 217,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 226,000. The US June Chicago Fed national activity index rose +0.06 to -0.10, stronger than expectations of -0.15. The July S&P US manufacturing PMI fell -3.4 to 49.5, weaker than expectations of 52.7 and the lowest level in 7 months. US June new home sales rose +0.6% m/m to 627,000, weaker than expectations of +4.3% m/m to 650,000. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 63% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Thursday fell by -0.03%. The euro fell from a 2.5-week high Thursday and turned slightly lower on comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said the economic risks to the Eurozone are tilted to the downside and a stronger euro could dampen inflation more than expected. The euro initially moved higher Thursday on hopes that a trade deal between the EU and US was close. Also, signs of strength in the Eurozone economy boosted the euro after the Eurozone July S&P manufacturing PMI rose to a 3-year high and the July S&P composite PMI rose to an 11-month high. In addition, the euro garnered support Thursday after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and said the Eurozone economy has so far proven resilient. The Eurozone July S&P manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 to a 3-year high of 49.8, right on expectations. The Eurozone July S&P composite PMI rose +0.4 to an 11-month high of 51.0, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 50.7. Eurozone June new car registrations fell -7.3% y/y to 1.010 million units, the largest decline in 10 months. The German Aug GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -1.2 to a 4-month low of -21.5, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.3. As expected, the ECB kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00%. The ECB said, 'Inflation is currently at the 2% medium-term target' and the economy has so far proven resilient, but the environment remains uncertain due to trade disputes. Swaps are pricing in a 21% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Thursday rose by +0.27%. The yen fell from a 2-week high against the dollar today and moved lower after the Nikkei Stock Index rallied to a 1-year high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Losses in the yen accelerated Thursday after T-note yields rose. The yen initially moved higher Thursday on speculation that the BOJ is closer to raising interest rates, following Wednesday's trade agreement between the US and Japan, which removed uncertainty from the market. The yen continues to be undercut by concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. Thursday's Japanese economic news was mixed for the yen. The Japan July S&P manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 to 48.8. However, the July S&P services PMI rose +1.8 to a 5-month high of 53.5. August gold (GCQ25) on Thursday closed down -24.10 (-0.71%), and September silver (SIU25) closed down -0.279 (-0.71%). Precious metals were under pressure on Thursday as the easing of global trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand for the metals. The US and Japan agreed to a trade deal on Wednesday, and Bloomberg reported that the European Union (EU) and the US are progressing toward a trade agreement. Also, Thursday's US weekly initial unemployment claims report showed jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-month low, a sign of US labor market strength that is hawkish for Fed policy and bearish for precious metals. In addition, higher global bond yields and a stronger dollar on Thursday undercut the prices of precious metals. Finally, Thursday's action by the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged, along with its post-meeting statement that the Eurozone economy is proving resilient, was bearish for precious metals. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a two-year high on Wednesday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a three-year high on the same day. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
New York Post
6 minutes ago
- New York Post
TikTok will go dark in US if China doesn't OK sale before Trump's deadline: Lutnik
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday that TikTok will have to stop operating in the United States if China does not approve a deal for the sale of the Chinese-owned short video app that is used by some 170 million Americans. Lutnick, speaking on CNBC, also said the US must control the algorithm that makes the social media platform work. Last month, President Trump extended by 90 days to Sept. 17, a deadline for China-based ByteDance to divest the US assets of TikTok. Trump's action took place despite a 2024 law that mandated a sale or shutdown by Jan. 19 of this year if there had not been significant progress. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned TikTok will go dark in the US if China doesn't approve a sale to American investors. REUTERS 'China can have a little piece or ByteDance, the current owner, can keep a little piece. But basically, Americans will have control. Americans will own the technology, and Americans will control the algorithm,' Lutnick said. 'If that deal gets approved, by the Chinese, then that deal will happen. If they don't approve it, then TikTok is going to go dark, and those decisions are coming very soon.' TikTok did not immediately comment. A deal had been in the works this spring that would spin off TikTok's US operations into a new US-based firm, majority-owned and operated by US investors. This stalled after China indicated it would not approve it following Trump's announcements of steep tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has three times granted reprieves from federal enforcement of the law that mandated the sale or shutdown of TikTok that was supposed to take effect in January. A deal had been in the works this spring that would spin off TikTok's US operations into a new US-based firm, majority-owned and operated by US investors. REUTERS Attorney General Pam Bondi sent letters to Apple, Google and other companies that provide services or host the TikTok app that were made public this month. The letters said the Justice Department was irrevocably relinquishing any claims against the companies for potential violations of the law, citing Trump's determination that an abrupt shutdown would interfere with his overseeing national security and foreign affairs. Some Democratic lawmakers argue Trump has no legal authority to extend the deadline and suggest the deal under consideration would not meet legal requirements.
CNBC
7 minutes ago
- CNBC
This original tech giant is trouncing the market in 2025 – and pays a solid dividend
An old school, tech workhorse is having a rough post-earnings session, but has still managed to trounce the S & P 500 in 2025 – and also rewards long-term investors who are seeking portfolio income. International Business Machines sold off sharply Thursday, down more than 8%, as investors punished the tech company when it missed Wall Street's estimates for software revenue in the second quarter . Software revenue for IBM came in at $7.39 billion, up about 10% from the year-ago period, but below the StreetAccount consensus estimate of $7.43 billion. IBM YTD mountain IBM shares in 2025 The software revenue overshadowed an otherwise solid quarter for IBM, when adjusted earnings came in at $2.80 per share on revenue of $16.98 billion, topping the $2.64 per share and $16.59 billion LSEG consensus. The 114-year-old tech bellwether also lifted its full-year cash flow guidance to more than $13.5 billion. "We believe that IBM is well-positioned to capitalize on the current demand shift for hybrid and [artificial intelligence] applications with more enterprises looking to implement AI for productivity gains and drive this long-term profitable growth," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said in a Thursday note. He said he would be a buyer "of any knee-jerk weakness" post earnings. Those who do snap up IBM shares while they're on sale – and stick with them for the long run – could be rewarded. The original blue chip tech stock has been steadily raising its dividend for decades, and investors who use each quarter's income to buy more shares could see enhanced returns over time. A dividend aristocrat Dating back to 1926, dividends have contributed about 31% of the total return of the S & P 500, while capital appreciation has contributed 69%, according to S & P Global . IBM is in an elite crowd of stocks, known as the dividend aristocrats. These are companies that have raised their annual dividend for at least 25 consecutive years. For its part, IBM has now increased its dividend for 30 straight years, with the company most recently announcing a hike in April to $1.68 a share. IBM has a current dividend yield of 2.6%, and its annual dividend payment per share adds up to $6.72. But the real power of the income payment comes in the form of compounding growth over time and using those dividends to buy more shares. On a price basis, IBM shares are up 18% in 2025, but its total return – factoring in reinvested dividends – is closer to 20%, according to FactSet calculations. That compares to an 8% increase on a price basis for the S & P 500 this year, and an 8.9% total return. Where investors really see the difference, though, is when they stick with a stock for the long run and make a point of reinvesting those dividend payments. Over the past 20 years, IBM's share price went up more than 220%, but on a total return basis the appreciation comes to more than 490%, reflecting the reward investors receive not just from buying additional stock but also from receiving added dividends on all those newly-accumulated shares. A way to dollar-cost average Investors can check with their brokerage firm to enroll in dividend reinvestment plans, which are known as DRIPs. The benefit of enrolling in a DRIP is that it allows investors to dollar-cost average into a position, meaning they buy shares at regular intervals regardless of the price action. There's no waiting for fire sales. You'll want to be picky about which names you reinvest in, though. Stocks with unreasonably high dividend yields may be on a downward trajectory, and companies that are under pressure may be forced to cut their payments to save cash. Investors can also consider diversifying their approach and snap up a dividend-focused ETF instead. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) has an expense ratio of 0.05% and a return of 7.3% in 2025. Its constituents include Broadcom, Microsoft and Costco Wholesale. Meanwhile, the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) has an expense ratio of 0.35% and a 2025 return of nearly 6%. Names in the fund include Emerson Electric, Caterpillar and Fastenal.
