Chinese arrivals may hit 9m in 2026
Atta president Thanapol Cheewarattanaporn said Chinese arrivals could climb to 9 million next year, approaching the 2019 peak of 10.9 million, mainly driven by three factors.
He said chartered flights should start to increase this year thanks to the subsidy programme offering 350,000 baht per flight, as Atta already secured deals with travel agents in Chongqing, Lanzhou and Hangzhou during its roadshow this week.
This programme alone should attract 150,000 Chinese tourists, said Mr Thanapol, along with 75,000 travellers from subsidies for the meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions segment, which are typically high spenders.
Large incentive groups choosing Bangkok as their destination should also help revive confidence, notably the Amway 2026 incentive meeting in March and April 2026, with 13,000 delegates joining, he said.
"These large-scale groups from China will play a key role in restoring travel confidence among Chinese tourists and will help attract more independent travellers back to Thailand," said Mr Thanapol, adding this estimate assumes no further negative incidents.
On Oct 12-18, 2026, Thailand is scheduled to host the World Bank Governors' Meeting, an international event that could help elevate confidence in Thailand's safety, infrastructure and capacity as a leading tourism and business destination, he said.
Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of Atta, said the momentum from the chartered flights subsidy should continue, increasing traffic to Thailand by five times and generating a total of 1 million tourists of the 9-million goal next year.
Zheng Wei, owner of Gansu Junhe Cultural Tourism, a major tour operator in Lanzhou, said there's strong interest in the chartered and incentive subsidies.
"We expect the real impact of these measures to show starting from November and December. If no major negative incidents occur, Chinese tourism to Thailand could recover to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels by late next year," he said.
Mr Zheng said the emergence of Vietnam serves as a temporary substitute based on lower costs, but it still lacks the quality and appeal of Thailand.
"Safety concerns are easing. If Thailand handles this well, Chinese tourists will definitely return. Vietnam is not a true competitor due to its substandard services. Most Chinese tourists don't repeat their visits," he said.
The TAT & Atta Roadshow to China this week is aimed at blunting the sharp plunge of the Chinese market by 34.1% in the first half.
However, the TAT has yet to set 9 million as a target and remains cautious in assessing the situation.
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