What to watch next week: UK shop prices, US employment, Constellation Brands, M&S and Sainsbury's
While developments around US trade tariffs and conflict in the Middle East continue to dominate market focus, there are also key economic data releases and a number of companies reporting in the coming week.
In the UK, investors will be looking at the latest shop price index from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), particularly given recent data showing a fall in retail sales.
Over in the US, the June jobs report is due to be published on Thursday, giving an insight into how the economy is faring amid uncertainty fuelled by president Donald Trump's trade tariffs.
In terms of earnings releases, investors will be keeping an eye on Constellation Brands' (STZ) earnings, to see how the Corona beer maker is coping with tariffs.
Back on the London market, investors will be looking out for any comments out of Marks & Spencer's (MKS.L) annual general meeting as to how the business is faring the wake of a cyberattack.
Meanwhile, Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) is due to update on its performance, as pricing competition has heated up among UK supermarkets.
Here's more on what to look out for:
UK retail sales saw a sharp downturn in May, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). A 2.7% drop in the total volume of retail sales marked the biggest monthly fall since December 2023 and was down from a 1.3% rise in April, as well as being much lower than the 0.7% decline expected by economists.
ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said that the fall was "mainly due to a dismal month for food retailers, especially supermarkets, following strong sales in April".
"Feedback suggested reduced purchases for alcohol and tobacco with customers choosing to make cutbacks."
Given this downbeat backdrop, investors will be looking at the BRC's June shop price index closely, to get an indication of how this could further shape consumer sentiment.
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In May, the BRC's index showed overall prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year, which was unchanged from April. Non-food deflation declined further to 1.5%, down from 1.4% in April but food inflation increased to 2.8%, up 2.6% in April.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Given the trends emerging in May, and ongoing caution among shoppers, it's likely that clothing and household goods sales have remained lower, as stores try and lure in more custom.
"But grocery prices have been on the rise again, which are making budgets even tighter. This trend is likely to have continued in June as some grocers try and pass on higher payroll costs and deal with some supply chain shortages."
She added: "While essentials will still bulk out trolleys, there may be further signs that customers are cutting back on goods like alcohol and tobacco. This data will be another piece of the jigsaw for Bank of England (BoE) policymakers to puzzle over as they assess the stickiness of inflation and mull the prospect of further interest rate cuts this year."
The BRC index is released ahead of the ONS official inflation data, so should also give some insight into what to expect from those figures. Previous ONS data showed UK inflation eased to 3.4% in May, which was in line with economist expectations, though this was still higher than the BoE's 2% target.
The non-farm payrolls data is typically released on a Friday but the June report is set to be released a day earlier this time, due to the 4 July holiday.
The May jobs report showed the US labour market remained largely resilient despite concerns about Trump's tariffs. The US economy added 139,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, more than the 126,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
However, Hargreaves Lansdown's Streeter said that US consumer confidence "deteriorated in June as workers worried about the availability of jobs ahead".
"So, there will be keen interest in what the US employment report shows, and whether the labour market is holding up or showing signs of weakness," she said.
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"There are signs that employers are becoming more cautious with the churn in the labour market have decreased with less hiring and firing," Streeter said. "Although overall the trend of jobs growth is expected to be positive, and the unemployment rate is expected to be stable around 4.2%, weakness is expected in certain sectors."
She said that while there is expected to be continued demand for workers in healthcare and social assistance and leisure, "there could be signs of fresh employer wariness in other areas such as manufacturing and also the retail and travel business given weaker consumer confidence".
Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday showed 1.974 million continuing jobless claims were filed in the week ending 14 June, up from 1.937 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021. Continuing jobless claims refers to the number of individuals who are still filing for unemployment insurance benefits.
"Signs of a softening labour market could signal the potential for the Fed to go faster with interest rate cuts this year, which could help market sentiment but if a set of robust figures are delivered, it may cause nervousness about higher borrowing costs lingering for longer," said Streeter.
Shares in Constellation Brands (STZ) jumped in May, after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) disclosed that it had more than doubled its stake in the company behind Corona and Mondelo beer.
However, shares is still down 27% year-to-date, with tariffs weighing on the stock. Constellation's (STZ) profit forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, shared in its full-year results in April, came in below analyst estimates.
The company said it expected adjusted profit per share to come in between $12.60 and $12.90 for the year, which was below estimates of $13.97, according to LSEG-compiled data reported by Reuters.
Constellation (STZ) said that its outlook for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 reflected the anticipated impact of tariffs announced in early April.
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For the 2025 fiscal year, Constellation (STZ) posted a 2% rise in net sales at $10.2bn (£7.4bn), though adjusted earnings before interest and tax were down 88% to $329m.
While sales grew in its beer business, the company said wine and spirits sales declined 6%, citing "unfavourability" in its US wholesale market.
Separately, Constellation (STZ) announced that it had signed an agreement to divest from the mainstream wine brands in its portfolio. Instead, the company said it was seeking to reposition this side of the business to a portfolio of higher-growth, higher-margin brands "aligned to consumer-led premiumization trends".
It said the restructuring was expected to generate more than $200m in annualised cost savings by the 2028 fiscal year.
Shares in M&S (MKS.L) are trading more than 5% in the red year-to-date, with the recent cyberattack on the company having dragged shares lower. Investors will be keeping an eye out for any commentary on how the company is dealing with the fallout from the incident when it holds its annual general meeting on Tuesday.
AJ Bell's (AJB.L) investment experts Russ Mould, Danni Hewson and Dan Coatsworth said: "Marks & Spencer's annual general meeting has not featured a first quarter, like-for-like sales figure for some time – management dropped this when trading was tough and felt it just a rod for their own back.
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"The company has more momentum behind it now and the share price is doing its best to shake off spring's cyberattack, but the first-quarter sales number is now usually disclosed as part of the first-half and full-year results, in November and May, respectively."
They said that in the "unlikely event boss Stuart Machin says anything at all about current trading, it may pertain to the cyberattack and whether he sticks to the initial estimate of a £300m hit to profit, reduced to £200m by insurance, cost cuts and an ongoing efficiency drive."
Currently, they said that analysts are forecasting a drop in underlying pre-tax profit to to £653m for the year to March 2026, down from £876m.
As talk of a UK supermarket price war ramped up, Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) CEO Simon Roberts said in the company's full-year results that the chain was "committed, above all else, to sustaining the strong competitive position we have built".
In the April results release, Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) said it expected underlying operating profit to come in at around £1bn for the coming year, which would be slightly down from the figure it reported for the past year, as it looked to maintain its competitiveness.
AJ Bell's (AJB.L) Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth said: "Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) shares are nudging toward their highest mark in a year, and they are not that far from their five-year, COVID-inspired high either. This suggests that fears of a supermarket price war, spearheaded perhaps by Asda, are yet to be realised, a view supported by the 4.4% year-on-year food price inflation flagged by the Office for National Statistics as part of May's 3.4% overall year-on-year increase in the headline consumer price index.
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"However, before hard-pressed shoppers begin to accuse Sainsbury (SBRY.L) of profiteering and price gouging, it may be worth noting that the shares are no higher than they were in 1990 – which is surely a testament to how competition in this industry remains red hot."
They said that an operating margin of 3% suggests the same, "as Sainsbury (SBRY.L) works hard to maintain market share". The latest data from market research firm Kantar showed that Sainsbury's market share was unchanged in the three months to May compared to the same period last year, at 15.1%.
The focus in Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) first-quarter update is set to be like-for-like sales growth, they said, with the total figures for the year to February of 3.2% as the benchmark.
AJ Bell's (AJB.L) investment experts said that analysts and shareholders would also be looking for any change to guidance for the coming year.
Monday 30 June
Sinovac Biotech (SVA)
Quantum Corporation (QMCO)
Tuesday 1 July
Supreme (SUP.L)
Wynnstay (WYN.L)
Kitwave (KITW.L)
Wednesday 2 July
Topps Tiles (TPT.L)
Thursday 3 July
Currys (CURY.L)
Baltic Classifieds (BCG.L)
Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.L)
Friday 4 July
Various Eateries (VARE.L)
You can read Yahoo Finance's full calendar here.
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