Economic statement shows public finances 'not as healthy as the headline figures suggest'
The Summer Economic Statement, however, says that a potential change in the tariff landscape or economic conditions could impact future spending plans.
According to the document, which was published on Tuesday, Budget 2026 provides for an overall package of €9.4bn and will be comprised of both tax reductions and public spending increases.
The tax package will amount to €1.5bn, while the spending package will be €7.9bn, an increase of 7.3% on the revised 2025 General Expenditure Ceiling.
"If there is a deterioration in the tariff landscape, Government will recalibrate its fiscal strategy — reducing the quantum of the budgetary package — in order to ensure that the public finances remain on a sustainable trajectory," it says.
The document says that Budget 2026 is designed to "address the policy challenges of today without jeopardising fiscal sustainability into the future".
"To this end, Budget 2026 is a budget that focuses on investment rather than consumption — it is designed to address the infrastructure gap and to boost economic resilience."
However, the document says that while the economy is in good condition, the public finances "are not as healthy as the headline figures suggest".
"While the headline budgetary position is in surplus, this is almost entirely due to a handful of large corporate taxpayers.
"Over the medium-term, structural changes — an ageing population, the phasing out of fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas emitters, the need to facilitate the digital transition and the fragmentation of economic activity along geopolitical lines — will have profound implications for the Irish economy and for the public finances."
Speaking on Tuesday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that if the economic winds shift, it will be day-to-day spending which will be hit, rather than capital projects.
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