At Issue - June 21, 2025
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBC
30 minutes ago
- CBC
Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation
The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation. The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada. "Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year. Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. "There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province. "Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said. Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. "There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said. Conservative estimates The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel. "There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said. Rath said the plan uses "extremely conservative estimates" to make those assumptions, resulting in numbers reflecting the least positive outcome. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young notes that the plan does take into account the fluctuation in oil prices. "They acknowledge that demand for oil will peak relatively soon and then decline," she said, demonstrating they are thinking about potential swings in the economy. Still, Rath said they believe there is no sign demand for oil and gas will shift. "It's kind of like Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," he said, referencing comments the former U.S. vice president made several years ago about climate change. "Every five years somebody says that the end of the earth is coming and nobody has yet to come up with an economic alternative to oil and gas." Young said the plan still lacks "robust" analysis from economists — and it leaves several questions about the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered. "Have they taken into account the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into account the many people who would pack their bags and leave the province and not want to be part of Alberta?" Pension payments and currency concerns Another area of uncertainty is the plan to shift to an Alberta Pension Plan — like the one the United Conservative government has proposed. Using data from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the plan says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its conservative estimates, the plan assumes the province would receive $167 billion in 2026. Rath also said an independent Alberta would reduce pension payments but double pension payouts. But St-Arnaud said this is based on the assumption that Albertans are generally richer and can contribute more, but also that they are younger and will use less of the money. "But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," he said. "Yes, Alberta is still younger than the rest of Canada, but that gap is narrowing quite rapidly." He also said one key mistake the plan makes in its revenue estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with overall fiscal revenue. "That amount of revenues shouldn't be included in fiscal revenues because that's the way pension funds work, and that's the way the CPP works at a federal level," he said. "It's an independent entity." Rath said Alberta would also adopt the U.S. dollar, before eventually shifting to an Alberta-specific currency. Young said the potential effect this could have is not clear. "What would it mean to adopt the American dollar all of a sudden, right? What would that do to people's personal finances?" she said. Opposition petition 'a bad joke' At the same press conference Thursday, Rath addressed questions about a competing petition plan that would call for Alberta to stay in Canada. "It's a bad joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously." The Forever Canada petition, led by former Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its own referendum question about staying in Alberta. Rath said this will not disrupt his group's plans to submit a question on separation because theirs is a constitutional challenge, not a policy one.
Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
Trump has yet to kill the golden goose that is the U.S. economy. But he's working on it
The market was asked to digest two pieces on news about the U.S. economy on Thursday. One is about the past. The other is about the future. The news about the past is good. The news about the future is not. The good news is that the American economy added 144,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent. U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats have mostly not knocked the economy off course, yet, because they are still (mostly) threats. Even so, U.S. job gains were concentrated in local government and health care, while manufacturing employment fell for a second month. It may be a sign that tariffs are starting to bite. And as for that lower unemployment rate, it was caused by a drop in the number of Americans looking for work – also not a great sign. On Wednesday night, Mr. Trump posted on social media that 'the USA is on track to break every record on GROWTH.' Unfortunately, the U.S. economy is not even on track to beat 'GROWTH' during the Biden years. But so far at least, economic life in the Trump era is, for the average American, not much different from six months ago. The view from the side and rear windows is moderately sunny. And now for the clouds out the front window. U.S. Congress just passed Trump's massive tax and spending cuts bill. Here's what to know Trump's massive spending bill is set to become law. Now, the reckoning begins On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed Mr. Trump's signature 'one big beautiful' budget bill. It's basically a plan for large tax cuts, which will mostly benefit higher earners, combined with cuts to social spending that will, among other things, end health insurance for several million Americans. The bill also counts on new revenue from tariffs. Because the tax cuts are bigger than anything else, the result is an increase in the federal deficit of US$3.3-trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, or US$5.5-trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The CRFB estimate is higher, and likely more accurate, because it ignores accounting fictions and assumes that tax cuts intended to be permanent become permanent – as the bill does for Mr. Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which were set to expire. Even before this legislation, the U.S. budget deficit was in the stratosphere. In the last fiscal year, it weighed in at US$1.8-trillion, or 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product. Paying for tax cuts today through an IOU to the future will push U.S. deficits to new heights. That's why Mr. Trump is badgering Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. Earlier this week on social media he said 'Powell, and his entire Board, should be ashamed' for having 'FAILED' Americans. 'We should be paying 1% Interest, or better!' The reason: 'Our Country would be saving Trillions of Dollars in Interest Cost.' Mr. Trump is right about the rising cost of carrying all that debt, though his solution – he wants Mr. Powell to resign – can't solve the problem. Washington will spend nearly US$1-trillion on interest this year, and the CRFB estimates that Mr. Trump's budget bill will raise that to US$2-trillion by 2034. Simply ordering the Fed to lower interest rates won't work. The Fed sets short term rates, but the market gets a vote on long-term borrowing costs. And those have been rising. The yield on the U.S. 10-year bond is up three-quarters of a percentage point since last September, even though the Fed lowered short-term rates by a percentage point. The global era of ultra-cheap debt appears to be over. The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond is back to where it was in 2007. The Great Recession triggered almost two decades of near zero-borrowing costs, but that's history. Mr. Trump and Team MAGA are taking a very large budget deficit and pushing it higher, which will stimulate the economy in the short term but in the long-run will cause interest costs to eat away at U.S. finances. In response to this problem of his own making, Mr. Trump is demanding that the Fed take actions likely to provoke inflation and undermine investor appetite for lending to Washington. Both of these moves would put further upward pressure on interest rates. And all of this is being done to finance tax cuts for the wealthy, paired with a dose of trade-sapping, inflation-powering, alliance-destroying tariffs, plus a side order of cuts to services for many of the blue collars who are the Republican Party's base. Happy Fourth of July, y'all. The U.S. economy is a goose that lays golden eggs. And Mr. Trump wants to feed it rocks.
CTV News
an hour ago
- CTV News
‘Smart,' ‘confusing': Experts weigh in on Alberta Sheriffs Police Service
The Alberta government is moving forward with its own police force. The premier insists the new agency will compliment current ones—not replace them. After Alberta Premier Danielle Smith unveiled a provincial policing service Wednesday, there are still many questions left unanswered. CTV public safety analyst Chris Lewis said he was 'a little confused' by the premier's announcement. 'There are a lot of gaps to fill in that are really uncertain at this time,' said Lewis. Currently, sheriffs do court security and traffic enforcement while RCMP respond to homicides, fatal collisions, missing people and the lot. 'How do you go from what they are to what they can do?' said Lewis. 'Who do they report to? Who's responsible for what they do?' In Calgary Wednesday, Smith said the Alberta Sheriffs Police Service wouldn't replace the RCMP, but would 'work alongside existing branches of law enforcement to fill gaps.' Danielle Smith Premier Danielle Smith speaks at a news conference in Calgary on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Municipalities will have the option to contract the new service for its policing needs instead of RCMP. Lewis said a provincial service would essentially be like the RCMP but with a different name and with its own hierarchy, infrastructure, cruisers and training. 'It would be really tough to move from what the RCMP does now to a model like the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP),' said Lewis. ' Do you take over RCMP buildings, their radios, their cars? Or do you change all that?' The former OPP commissioner added that it would take years to put together if the province decided to go the latter route, but it's too early to say at this point. Dan Jones, chair of justice studies at Norquest College, said he thinks it's a 'smart move' while Ottawa may move to get out of contracting leasing. 'I think it's a smart move for the Alberta government to do something before it's done to them and be ready for it,' Jones told CTV News Edmonton. The current policing contract for RCMP ends in 2032. Contract policing is provided through agreements negotiated between the federal government and provinces, territories and municipalities. Eight provinces and three territories receive RCMP services as well as some 150 municipalities under direct contract. Ontario and Quebec have their own provincial police services. There are over 4,000 RCMP personnel in Alberta, including officers and civilian workers. The province said there are around 2,000 sheriffs, with 650 of them fully trained, for the Alberta Sheriffs Police Service. 'One of the issues at hand is the RCMP are understaffed in some (Alberta) communities, where they are paying for policing services that are not happening because the RCMP don't have people there,' said Jones. 'Where are they going to get these folks from? How many are they going to hire and how large is the service going to be?' Despite unanswered questions, Jones thinks the province has done a 'good job' planning the provincial force. 'This has been going on for a long time and I think the planning has been really well done,' said Jones. 'I think this is a positive move for the province of Alberta.' With files from CTV News Edmonton's Miriam Valdes-Carletti and CTV News Calgary's Melissa Gilligan.
