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India-US trade deal awaits Trump's nod ahead of July 9 tariff deadline
The development comes after Indian negotiators, led by chief negotiator Rajesh Aggarwal, extended their stay in Washington beyond their initial schedule to bridge gaps over sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture. A key government official told LiveMint, 'Indian negotiators did their best to convince their US counterparts about the domestic sensitivities involved in these sectors. To some extent, the USTR has agreed to India's position on not fully opening up the agriculture sector. Now, it's up to the US President to take the final call.'
Agriculture, dairy, genetically modified (GM) seeds, and medical services remain points of contention, with the US seeking greater market access while India looks to protect its vulnerable sectors, as per the report.
India-US trade deal: Options on tariffs
The US, as per the report, has offered two alternatives on tariff reductions. If India agrees to the US's demands in agriculture and related sectors, its exports could face an additional 10 per cent tariff. 'If India agrees to US demands for greater market access in agricultural goods, dairy and seeds, then Indian goods may face only a 10 per cent additional tariff -- which, while not ideal, is still much lower than what other countries in the Asian region are facing,' a person aware of the talks told LiveMint.
If India refuses, tariffs could go up to 20 per cent, which includes the existing 10 per cent baseline and an extra 10 per cent under earlier US measures. Still, this would represent a 6 per cent relief from the earlier proposed 26 per cent duty.
Trump's deadline nears
The US President, speaking to reporters on July 4, confirmed he had signed multiple letters informing countries of upcoming reciprocal tariffs. 'I signed some letters and they'll go out on Monday, probably 12. Different amounts of money, different rates of tariff,' Trump said, without naming the countries.
Although the reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect from August 1, the letters are expected to be sent out on July 8, giving India a narrow window to seal the deal before being hit by new duties.
India firm on agriculture, open on other fronts
India is pushing for better access for its leather, textiles, and footwear sectors, while resisting demands to lift restrictions on GM seeds and crops. Only Bt cotton is currently approved for cultivation in India, and no GM food crops are commercially grown.
US-India trade data
Commerce ministry figures highlight the growing trade with the US. In FY25, India's exports to the US rose by 11.6 per cent to $86.51 billion, while imports increased by 7.42 per cent to $45.33 billion. However, US imports fell in May year-on-year, from $3.85 billion to $3.63 billion, while exports grew by 17.3 per cent, led by electronics and smartphones.
In contrast, India's imports from China rose by 11.5 per cent in FY25 to $113.46 billion, while exports to China fell by 14.5 per cent, underscoring the trade imbalance.
The deal, if finalised, is likely to mirror elements from recent US trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam. While the US retained its 10 per cent baseline tariff in both those cases, it offered some reductions in additional duties. Trade watchers see the India-US agreement as a limited deal focused solely on goods, with services and labour excluded for now.
Despite the challenges, negotiators on both sides remain hopeful of concluding an agreement in time to avoid penalties. The ball now lies in Trump's court.
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Hindustan Times
7 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Mediators tell Hamas new Gaza talks to begin in Doha
International mediators trying to broker a ceasefire to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza have informed the Palestinian group that talks will resume on Sunday, a Palestinian official said. Hamas is seeking increased humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip and assurances for a lasting end to the conflict.(REUTERS) "Mediators informed Hamas that a new round of indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel will begin in Doha today, Sunday," the official, who is familiar with the talks and close to Hamas, told AFP. The official said the Hamas delegation, led by its top negotiator Kahlil al-Hayya, was already in the Qatari capital. The renewed talks are expected to focus on the conditions for a potential ceasefire agreement, with particular attention to the details of a possible hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is also seeking increased humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip and assurances for a lasting end to the conflict. Two Palestinian sources close to the discussions said the latest US-backed proposal included a 60-day truce, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and several bodies in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel. On Friday, Hamas said it was ready "to engage immediately and seriously" in negotiations, and that it had submitted its response to the proposal, without offering any details. On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that "the changes that Hamas is seeking to make in the Qatari proposal... are unacceptable to Israel". Netanyahu however ordered negotiators to head to Doha to discuss "the Qatari proposal that Israel has agreed to", the statement from his office said, later adding the delegation would travel on Sunday.
Mint
11 minutes ago
- Mint
Vijay L. Bhambwani's Ticker: Beneath the surface, an undertone of cautious optimism
Dear reader, Last week, I wrote that the bulls had an upper hand. However, markets showed signs of being top-heavy, as higher levels attracted selling. Nervousness over the India-US trade deal and Friday's Sebi ban on Jane Street dampened sentiments. The latter event triggered worries among retail options traders, since options make up the lion's share in the derivatives segment. Traders feared there would be a temporary drought of liquidity as institutional players, especially since algo and AI-capable traders such as Jane Street constitute approximately half of the entire derivatives turnover. My call to deploy tail risk (Hacienda) hedges on all open positions turned out to be a robust strategy, and my readers should continue to maintain this strategy as the period of higher volatility is not over yet. Market internals still indicate that bulls still nurse optimism, though they avoided providing big-ticket support at higher levels. Markets showed resilience by not falling significantly either. Studying the statistical signals below should clarify matters further. Last week, I wrote that industrial metals were likely to witness a routine month-end rally. That occurred, and provided a boost to metal and mining stocks. The month-end is done and dusted, and upsides may run into some profit-taking on these commodities, and by extension, in some of their stock prices too. The long-term bull story in bullion is alive and kicking. Patient delivery-based investors who are willing to overlook short-term volatility with a steely resolve are yet to witness the peak prices of bullion -- just look beyond calendar year 2025. Oil and gas are likely to remain subdued and rallies, if any, are likely to be temporary. I maintain my view that energy markets are well-supplied. This view remains unchanged for months, and should hold for the calendar year, barring sudden unforeseen circumstances. This week will see continued trading action on public sector undertakings, particularly banks. There are some hopes of a divestment in government banks, and the markets are cheering that expectation. Besides, the weightage of the banking and financial sector in headline indices itself means that a boost for these stocks will lend cheer to the markets. Oil marketing companies may see above-average daily ranges, and should provide high-risk traders with good trading opportunities for two-way trading moves. Option traders should note that the Jane Street episode may impart higher-than average volatility; therefore, they should trade light till clarity emerges. Tail risk hedges are a robust idea. Fixed income investors should still keep the powder dry and await the festive season that starts in September. I expect consumer credit demand to perk up, which may push coupon rates mildly higher too. A tutorial video on tail risk (Hacienda) hedges is here - Rear View Mirror Let us assess what happened last week, so we can guesstimate what to expect in the coming week. The week's fall was led by the banking sector, and the broad-based Nifty-50 brought up the rear. A weak US dollar index (DXY) propped up emerging market indices including India. Bullion gained week-on-week, as defensive buying continued. Energy remained under pressure and cheered inflation-wary bulls. The INR displayed strength, adding to the cheerful sentiments. NSE gained market capitalization despite weak indices, and that tells me the broader market sentiment remains cheerful. Market-wide position limits (MWPL) rose routinely post-expiry. US indices gained, providing tail winds to our markets. Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders – where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more of futures which require sizable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile compared to stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are average of all trading days of the week) – Turnover contribution in the higher-risk, capital-intensive futures segment eased. That tells me traders were unwilling to go out on a limb to go long. In the relatively lower-risk, lower capital requirement options segment, it was the lowest-risk index options that saw the turnover contribution rise, which means derivatives traders were unwilling to take aggressive bets. Matryoshka Analysis Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the first chart I share is the NSE advance-decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of the number of rising stocks compared to falling stocks. As long as gainers outnumber the losers, bulls are dominant. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'one marshmallow" traders. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty-50 fell on a week-on-week basis, but the advance-decline ratio remained above the 1.0 level. At 1.03 level (prior week 1.61) it indicates there were 103 gaining stocks for every 100 losing stocks. Bulls remained optimistic. Watch this metric keenly this week. As long as the daily and weekly average stays above 1.0, bulls are still in control. A tutorial video on the Marshmallow theory in trading is here - The second chart I share is on market-wide position limits (MWPL). This measures the amount of exposure utilized by traders in the derivatives (F&O) space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'two marshmallow" traders. These are deep-pocketed, high-conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session/s. The MWPL reading rose routinely, and that indicates traders were willing to enhance their exposure post-expiry. It was marginally lower than the commensurate week last month. That was due to the nervousness over the trade deal and Jane Street. Overall, risk appetite remained steady among swing traders. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here - The third chart I share is my in-house indicator 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week, both indices fell with lower impetus readings. That means the fall lacked selling momentum and/or panic sales. Ideally, prices and impetus readings should rise in unison to indicate a sustainable uptrend. The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight; so, applying LWTD to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments. The Nifty ended last week with small losses. The LWTD reading fell too. At -0.04 (prior week 0.19), it indicates the possibility of weak fresh buying. While short-covering can cushion declines, it takes fresh buying to boost levels to all-time highs. A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here - Nifty's Verdict The weekly candle chart shows a small-bodied bearish candle with the prior week's prominently bullish candle. The last candle size was too small to present a major worry to bulls. The price is comfortably above the 25-week average, which is a proxy for a six-month-long holding cost of a retail investor. That means the medium-term outlook is positive for now. Last week, I advocated watching the 25,250 level as an immediate support, which remains in place. As long as bulls defend this level, they remain in the driver's seat. On the flip side, overcoming the 25,750 on a sustained closing basis can trigger a fresh upthrust. Your Call to Action Watch the 25,250 level as a near-term support. Breaking out above the 25,750 level raises the possibility of testing fresh record highs in the coming weeks. Last week, I estimated ranges between 57,800 – 54,700 and 25,725 – 24,500 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Both indices traded within their specified resistance levels. This week, I estimate ranges between 58,450 – 55,625 and 26,075 – 24,825 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L. Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani
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Business Standard
12 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Borosil Renewables to wind up German unit, focus on Indian solar glass
Borosil Renewables has filed an application to wind up operations of its German subsidiary to sharpen focus on the Indian solar glass market with immense potential. In a regulatory filing, Borosil Renewables Ltd said its material step-down subsidiary in Germany, GMB Glasmanufaktur Brandenburg GmbH, has filed an application for the commencement of insolvency proceedings before the Insolvency Court at Cottbus, Germany, in accordance with the German Insolvency Code (InsO). This decision was reached after a comprehensive assessment of market conditions, financial viability, and long-term strategic priorities. "The challenges for GMB began with slide in demand for German made solar panels, when faced with the precipitous drop in prices by Chinese manufacturers of solar panels, who have engaged in large scale dumping in the European market, using predatory pricing. "Despite the alarms sounded by the German solar module manufacturers seeking protection against such dumping, policy responses to date have been insufficient," the filing said. Lack of meaningful protective measures by the authorities concerned has led to the shutdown of major solar module manufacturers in Germany, with some of them filing for the commencement of insolvency proceedings. Eventually, this resulted in the disappearance of the market demand for solar glass manufactured by GMB, causing substantial losses to GMB, which has affected the consolidated financials of the company, it said. The company/GMB has approached the authorities concerned to get some quick measures in place. GMB (capacity of 350 tonnes per day) was once a vital part of Borosil's global footprint, serving the European solar glass market. However, since the second half of 2023, the landscape changed dramatically. A significant increase in low-cost solar panel imports from China created unprecedented pricing pressure, leading to a rapid decline in demand for German-made modules and, consequently, for locally produced solar glass. Lack of meaningful protective measures by the authorities has led to the shutdown of major solar module manufacturers in Germany, with some of them filing for the commencement of insolvency proceedings. As of March 31, 2025, Borosil's total exposure to GMB and its associated German entities stood at 35.30 million euros, or approximately ₹340 crore. This includes both capital investments and loans extended over time to sustain German operations. From the date of the insolvency filing (July 4, 2025), Borosil will no longer account for GMB's monthly losses. Analysts said the insolvency filing will lead to sharper focus on Indian operations that are witnessing significant tailwinds. The move allows Borosil Renewables to halt capital bleed in a structurally declining market and reallocate resources toward its growth nucleus: India. India presents a compelling growth story driven by sizeable addition to solar power capacity every year, strong demand for solar infrastructure, supportive government policy (including PLI schemes and ALMM for modules and cells), and a favourable cost base. Manufacturing capacity for solar modules has already reached 90-plus gigawatts and is expected to rise to 150 gigawatts by March 2027. Thus, there is a huge scope for capacity addition and import substitution. With this pivot, Borosil aims to double down on its leadership in solar glass innovation, manufacturing scale, and ESG-driven clean energy technologies, they said. In May this year, Borosil Renewables announced its plan to raise production capacity for solar glass by 600 tonnes per day, by setting up two furnaces of 300 TPD each at an estimated cost of ₹950 crore. This translates into significant capacity addition of 60 per cent, considering Borosil's existing manufacturing capacity of 1,000 TPD. The imposition of anti-dumping duty for a period of five years, effective from December 4, 2024, on the import of solar glass from China and Vietnam is leading to a level playing field for domestic manufacturers. This policy measure is anticipated to foster rapid and significant growth in domestic solar glass manufacturing. The imposition of anti-dumping duty has also led to a significant improvement in domestic prices for solar cells. For example, average ex-factory selling prices for solar glass during Q4 FY25 were about ₹127.6 per millimetre per square metre as compared to ₹99.6 per millimetre per square metre in the same period in FY24, translating into an increase of 28 per cent. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
