IBM touts software segment gains as infrastructure revenue falls

Ethereum turns 10: From scrappy experiment to Wall Street's invisible backbone

CNBC

3 hours ago

CNBC

Ethereum turns 10: From scrappy experiment to Wall Street's invisible backbone

CANNES — Ten years ago, Vitalik Buterin and a small band of developers huddled in a drafty Berlin loft strung with dangling lightbulbs, laptops balanced on mismatched chairs and chipped tables. They weren't corporate titans or venture-backed founders — just idealists working long nights to push a radical idea into reality. From that sparse office, they launched "Frontier," Ethereum's first live network. It was bare-bones — no interface, no polish, nothing user-friendly. But it could mine, execute smart contracts, and let developers test decentralized applications. It was the spark that transformed Ethereum from an abstract concept into a living, breathing system. Bitcoin had captured headlines as "digital gold," but what they built was something else entirely: programmable money, a financial operating system where code could move funds, enforce contracts, and create businesses without banks or brokers. One year earlier and 520 miles away in Zurich, Paul Brody got a call from IBM security: A kid was wandering the lab unattended. "That's not a child," Brody told them. "That's Vitalik. He's a grown-up — he just looks really young." At the time, Buterin had just founded Ethereum. The blockchain was still in its alpha stage, an early build of what would become a $420 billion platform rewiring Wall Street and powering decentralized finance, NFTs, and tokenized markets across the globe. Brody, then leading a research team at IBM, remembers how quickly the idea clicked. "One of the guys on the research team came to me and said, 'I've met this really interesting guy. He's got a really cool like a version of bitcoin, but we're going to make it much faster and programmable,'" he said. "And when he said that to me, I thought, 'That's it. That is what I want. That is what we need.'" With Buterin's help, IBM built its first blockchain prototype on Ethereum's early code, unveiling it at CES in 2015 alongside Samsung. "That was how I ended up down this path," Brody said. "I was done with all other technology and basically made the switch to blockchain." Even now, as EY's global blockchain leader, Brody remembers feeling a pang of envy. "This is a kid, and it doesn't matter," he said. "I was jealous of Vitalik… to be able to do that." He added, "I don't think opportunities like that could have been surfaced when I was that age." Now, a decade later, that experiment has quietly rewired global markets. "It's very impressive, just how much the space has succeeded and grown into, beyond pretty much anyone's expectations," Buterin told CNBC in Cannes on the sidelines of the blockchain's flagship event in Europe. Buterin said the change over the past decade has been staggering. Ten years ago, he recalled, the crypto community was "just a very small space," with only a handful of people working on bitcoin and a few other projects. Since then, Ethereum has become "this big thing," Buterin said, with major corporations now launching assets on both its base layer and layer-two networks. Parts of national economies are beginning to run on Ethereum infrastructure, a far cry from its cypherpunk origins. But Buterin warned that mainstream adoption brings risks as well as benefits. One concern is that if too few issuers or intermediaries dominate, they could become "de facto controllers of the ecosystem." He described a scenario where Ethereum might appear open, but, in practice, all the keys are managed by centralized providers. "That's the thing that we don't want," he said. Two years earlier in Prague, CNBC met Buterin at Paralelní Polis, a sprawling industrial complex turned anarchist tech hub in the city's Holešovice district. The building's labyrinthine staircases and shadowed corridors felt like a physical map of the crypto world itself — part resistance movement, part experiment in reimagining power. It was a place built on Václav Benda's concept of a "parallel society," where decentralized technologies offered refuge from state surveillance and control. It's the kind of place where Buterin, a self-described nomad, found himself at home among cypherpunks and cryptographic idealists. At the time, Buterin described crypto's greatest utility not in speculative trading, but in helping people survive broken financial systems in emerging markets. "The stuff that we often find a bit basic and boring is exactly the stuff that brings lots of value," he told CNBC at the time. "Just being able to plug into the international economy — these are things that they don't have, and these are things that provide huge value for people there." Even in Prague, where coders worked to make payments fast and censorship-resistant, the technology felt like a resistance movement — privacy-preserving, anti-authoritarian, a lifeline in countries where banking collapses were common and money couldn't be trusted. This year, Buterin keynoted Ethereum's flagship conference at the Palais des Festivals — the same red carpet venue that hosts movie stars each spring. It was a fitting symbol of Ethereum's journey: from underground hacker dens to a network that governments, banks, and brokerages are now racing to build upon. Brody, who currently leads blockchain strategy at EY, says what matters most is how deeply Ethereum is integrating into traditional finance. "The global financial system is really nicely described as a whole network of pipes," he said. "What's happening now is that Ethereum is getting plumbed into this infrastructure," Brody continued, noting that until recently, crypto operated on entirely separate rails from traditional finance. Now, he said, Ethereum is being wired directly into core transaction systems, setting the stage for massive financial flows — from investors to everyday savers — to migrate away from older mechanisms toward Ethereum-based platforms that can move money faster, at lower cost, and with more advanced functionality than legacy systems allow. Stablecoins — digital dollars that live on Ethereum — power trillions in payments, tokenized assets and funds are moving on-chain, and Robinhood recently rolled out tokenized U.S. equities via Arbitrum, an Ethereum-based layer two. Circle's USDC — the second-largest stablecoin — still settles around 65% of its volume on Ethereum's rails. According to CoinGecko's latest "State of Stablecoins" report, Ethereum accounts for nearly 50% of all stablecoin activity. Between Circle's IPO and the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, now signed into law by President Donald Trump, regulators have new reason to engage with, rather than fight, this transformation. Data from Deutsche Bank shows stablecoin transactions hit $28 trillion last year — more than Mastercard and Visa combined. The bank itself has announced plans to build a tokenization platform on zkSync, a fast, cost-efficient Ethereum layer two designed to help asset managers issue and manage tokenized funds, stablecoins, and other real-world assets while meeting regulatory and data protection requirements. Digital asset exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken are racing to capture this crossover between traditional securities and crypto. As part of its quarterly earnings release, Coinbase said this week it's launching tokenized stocks and prediction markets for U.S. users in the coming months, a move that would diversify its revenue stream and bring it into more direct competition with brokerages like Robinhood and eToro. Kraken announced plans to offer 24/7 trading of U.S. stock tokens in select overseas markets. BlackRock's tokenized money market fund, BUIDL, launched on Ethereum last year, offering qualified investors on-chain access to yield with real-time redemptions settled in USDC. Even as newer blockchains tout faster speeds and lower fees, Ethereum has proven its staying power as the trusted network for global finance. Buterin told CNBC in Cannes that there's a misconception about what institutions actually want. "A lot of institutions basically tell us to our faces that they value Ethereum because it's stable and dependable, because it doesn't go down," he said. He added that firms frequently ask about privacy and other long-term features — the kinds of concerns that institutions, he said, "really value." Different institutions are choosing different layer twos for different needs — Robinhood uses Arbitrum, Deutsche Bank zkSync, Coinbase and Kraken Optimism — but they all ultimately settle on Ethereum's base layer. "The value proposition of Ethereum is its global reach, its huge capital flows, its incredible programmability," Brody said. He added that the fact it isn't the fastest blockchain or the one with the quickest settlement times "is secondary to the fact that it's overall the most widely adopted and flexible system." Brody also believes history points toward consolidation. He said that in most technology standards wars, one platform ultimately dominates. In his view, Ethereum is likely to become that dominant programmability layer, while Bitcoin plays a complementary role as a risk-off, scarcity-driven asset. Engineers, he said, "love to work on a standard… to scale on a standard," and Ethereum has become precisely that. Tomasz Stańczak, the newly appointed co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, sees the same pattern from inside the ecosystem. "Institutions chose Ethereum over and over again for its values," Stańczak said. "Ten years without stopping for a moment. Ten years of upgrades with a huge dedication to security and censorship resistance." When institutions send an order to the market, they want to be sure that it's treated fairly, that nobody has preference, and that the transaction is executed at the time when it's delivered. "That's what Ethereum guarantees," added Stańczak. Those assurances have become more valuable as traditional finance moves on-chain. Ethereum's path hasn't been smooth. The network has weathered spectacular booms and busts, rivals promising faster speeds, and criticism that it's too slow or expensive for mass adoption. Yet it has outlasted nearly all early competitors. In 2022, Ethereum replaced its old transaction validation method, proof-of-work — where armies of computers competed to solve puzzles — with proof-of-stake, where users lock up their ether as collateral to help secure the network. The shift cut Ethereum's energy use by more than 99% and set the stage for upgrades aimed at making apps faster and cheaper to run on its base layer. The next decade will test whether Ethereum can scale without compromise. Buterin said the first priority is getting Ethereum to "the finish line" in terms of its technical goals. That means improving scalability and speed without sacrificing its core principles of decentralization and security — and ideally making those properties even stronger. Zero-knowledge proofs, for example, could dramatically increase transaction capacity while making it possible to verify that the chain is following the rules of the protocol on something as small as a smartwatch. There are also algorithmic changes the team already knows are needed to protect Ethereum against large-scale computing attacks. Implementing those, Buterin said, is part of the path to making Ethereum "a really valuable part of global infrastructure that helps make the internet and the economy a more free and open place." Buterin believes the real change won't come with fireworks. He said it may already be unfolding years before most people recognize it. "This type of disruption doesn't feel like overturning the existing system," he said. "It feels like building a new thing that just keeps growing and growing until eventually more and more people realize you don't even have to look at the old thing if you didn't want to." Brody can already see hints of that future. Wire transfers are moving on-chain, assets like stocks and real estate are being tokenized, and eventually, he said, businesses will run entire contracts — the money, the products, the terms and conditions — automatically on a single, shared infrastructure. That shift, Brody added, won't simply copy old financial systems onto new technology. "One of the lessons from technology adoption is that it's not that we replace like for like," he said. "When new things come along, we tend to build on a new technology infrastructure. My key hypothesis is that as we build new financial products, it will be attractive to build them on blockchain rails — and we'll try to do things on blockchain rails that we can't do today." If Brody and Buterin are right, the real disruption won't make headlines. It'll simply become the way money moves, unseen and unstoppable.

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

Yahoo

10 hours ago

Yahoo

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

As recent college graduates face one of the toughest job markets in years, Berkeley economist and voluble Substacker Brad DeLong has a message for those struggling to land their first full-time gig: Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are not to blame. Larger forces are at work. DeLong, a professor at UC Berkeley and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, argued in a recent essay that the challenges confronting young job-seekers today are primarily driven by widespread policy uncertainty and a sluggish economy—not by the rapid rise of AI tools like ChatGPT or data-crunching robots. DeLong offered his analysis on July 23, roughly 10 days before the July jobs report stunned markets, revealing that the economy has been much weaker than previously thought for several months. Prominent business leaders had also flagged troubling signs in the economy before the July jobs report dropped. IBM Vice Chair and former Trump advisor Gary Cohn went on CNBC a day before the jobs data, noting 'warning signs below the surface.' Cohn said he pays close attention to the quits rate in the monthly JOLTS data, arguing that 150,000 fewer quits was an ominous sign of poor economic health. DeLong sounded a prophetic note, writing that 'policy uncertainty' over trade, immigration, inflation, and technology has 'paralyzed business planning,' leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of hiring freezes. New entrants to the job market are bearing the brunt of the retreat to risk aversion. In other words, the college graduate class of 2025 is really unlucky. The economist argued that the uncertainty causes companies to delay major decisions—including hiring—in the face of an unpredictable policy environment. 'This risk aversion is particularly damaging for those at the start of their careers, who rely on a steady flow of entry-level openings to get a foot in the door,' he wrote. DeLong has sounded similar warnings of a slowdown for years. He talked to Fortune in 2022 about his theory of the economy starting to sputter from his book Slouching Towards Utopia. In 2025, he wrote, the big story in the jobs market is not actually AI, but something different. Policy paralysis So, what's really keeping freshly minted graduates from clinching that all-important first job? DeLong cited Bloomberg BusinessWeek's Amanda Mull and her theory about 'stochastic uncertainty'—a cocktail of unpredictability around government policies, trade, immigration, and inflation. Companies aren't firing; instead, they're just waiting. And many are delaying new hires in anticipation of possible sudden shifts in tariffs, inflation rates, and regulatory environments. The result is a wait-and-see climate where employers, worried about future economic shocks, have selected caution over expansion. The holding pattern hits new entrants to the workforce especially hard. While overall unemployment in the U.S. remains low, the situation is uniquely difficult for new graduates relative to the rest of the workforce. Citing economists including Paul Krugman, DeLong noted that while the absolute unemployment rate for college graduates isn't alarming, the gap between graduate unemployment and general unemployment rates is at record highs. In the past, higher education reliably led to lower unemployment, but now recent grads are struggling 'by a large margin' compared to previous generations. As previously reported by Fortune Intelligence, Goldman Sachs has argued that the college degree 'safety premium' is mostly gone. The team, led by Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius, wrote: 'Recent data suggests that the labor market for recent college graduates has weakened at a time when the broader labor market has appeared healthy.' It also found that since 1997, young workers without a college degree have become much less likely to even look for work, with their participation rate dropping by seven percentage points. Mull cited an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which found that tech and design fields, including computer science, computer engineering, and graphic design, are seeing unemployment rates above 7% for new graduates. Why the AI hype misses the mark Although the tech sector is buzzing about AI's potential to replace junior analysts or automate entry-level tasks, DeLong urged caution in assigning blame. In his typical style, he noted, 'there is still [no] hard and not even a semi-convincing soft narrative that 'AI is to blame' for entry-level job scarcity.' Hiring slowdowns, he pointed out, are driven by broader economic forces: uncertainty, risk aversion, and changes in how companies invest. Here again, DeLong's analysis rhymes and aligns with recent research from Goldman's Hatzius. The bank's quarterly 'AI Adoption Tracker,' issued in July, found that the unemployment rate for AI-exposed occupations had reconciled with the wider economy, which contradicts fears of mass displacement. They also noted there have been no recent layoff announcements explicitly citing AI as the cause, underscoring that it's contained to disruption of specific functions, not entire industries. Crucially, he argued, rather than hiring people, companies in the tech sector are splurging on 'the hardware that powers artificial intelligence'—notably Nvidia's high-performance chips—fueling a boom in capital investment while sidelining junior hires. 'For firms, the calculus is straightforward: Investing in AI infrastructure is seen as a ticket to future competitiveness, while hiring junior staff is a cost that can be postponed.' Underpinning these trends is a shift away from any and all risk. Employers prefer to hire for specific short-term needs and are less willing to invest in developing new talent—leaving young applicants caught in a cycle where 'just getting your foot in the door' is more difficult than ever. Incumbent workers, worried about job market uncertainty, are less likely to change jobs, leading to fewer openings and greater stagnation. DeLong's analysis harmonized with Goldman Sachs' findings about the declining premium attached with a college degree: 'For the longer-run, the rise in the college wage premium is over, and a decline has (probably) begun.' For decades, he continued, a college degree was a ticket to higher earnings, and the labor market rewarded those with advanced skills and credentials. In recent years, though, 'this has plateaued and may even be falling.' The causes are complex, he added, but the takeaway: While degrees remain valuable, they are no longer the ever-ascending ticket to prosperity they once were. These comments confirm the gloomy remarks of University of Connecticut professor emeritus Peter Turchin, who recently talked with Fortune about the declining status of the upper middle class in 21st century America. When asked where else he sees this manifesting in modern life, Turchin said, 'It's actually everywhere you look. 'Look at the overproduction of university degrees,' he said, arguing that the decreasing premium that Goldman and DeLong write about shows up in declining rates of college enrollment and high rates of recent graduate unemployment. 'There is overproduction of university degrees and the value of a university degree actually declines.' DeLong's bottom line for recent grads: Blame a risk-averse business climate, not technology, for today's job woes. And now that we know the economy may have been much more risk-averse in 2025 than previously, DeLong's warnings are worth revisiting. DeLong did not respond to a request for comment. For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Yahoo

11 hours ago

Yahoo

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

As recent college graduates face one of the toughest job markets in years, Berkeley economist and voluble Substacker Brad DeLong has a message for those struggling to land their first full-time gig: Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are not to blame. Larger forces are at work. DeLong, a professor at UC Berkeley and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, argued in a recent essay that the challenges confronting young job-seekers today are primarily driven by widespread policy uncertainty and a sluggish economy—not by the rapid rise of AI tools like ChatGPT or data-crunching robots. DeLong offered his analysis on July 23, roughly 10 days before the July jobs report stunned markets, revealing that the economy has been much weaker than previously thought for several months. Prominent business leaders had also flagged troubling signs in the economy before the July jobs report dropped. IBM Vice Chair and former Trump advisor Gary Cohn went on CNBC a day before the jobs data, noting 'warning signs below the surface.' Cohn said he pays close attention to the quits rate in the monthly JOLTS data, arguing that 150,000 fewer quits was an ominous sign of poor economic health. DeLong sounded a prophetic note, writing that 'policy uncertainty' over trade, immigration, inflation, and technology has 'paralyzed business planning,' leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of hiring freezes. New entrants to the job market are bearing the brunt of the retreat to risk aversion. In other words, the college graduate class of 2025 is really unlucky. The economist argued that the uncertainty causes companies to delay major decisions—including hiring—in the face of an unpredictable policy environment. 'This risk aversion is particularly damaging for those at the start of their careers, who rely on a steady flow of entry-level openings to get a foot in the door,' he wrote. DeLong has sounded similar warnings of a slowdown for years. He talked to Fortune in 2022 about his theory of the economy starting to sputter from his book Slouching Towards Utopia. In 2025, he wrote, the big story in the jobs market is not actually AI, but something different. Policy paralysis So, what's really keeping freshly minted graduates from clinching that all-important first job? DeLong cited Bloomberg BusinessWeek's Amanda Mull and her theory about 'stochastic uncertainty'—a cocktail of unpredictability around government policies, trade, immigration, and inflation. Companies aren't firing; instead, they're just waiting. And many are delaying new hires in anticipation of possible sudden shifts in tariffs, inflation rates, and regulatory environments. The result is a wait-and-see climate where employers, worried about future economic shocks, have selected caution over expansion. The holding pattern hits new entrants to the workforce especially hard. While overall unemployment in the U.S. remains low, the situation is uniquely difficult for new graduates relative to the rest of the workforce. Citing economists including Paul Krugman, DeLong noted that while the absolute unemployment rate for college graduates isn't alarming, the gap between graduate unemployment and general unemployment rates is at record highs. In the past, higher education reliably led to lower unemployment, but now recent grads are struggling 'by a large margin' compared to previous generations. As previously reported by Fortune Intelligence, Goldman Sachs has argued that the college degree 'safety premium' is mostly gone. The team, led by Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius, wrote: 'Recent data suggests that the labor market for recent college graduates has weakened at a time when the broader labor market has appeared healthy.' It also found that since 1997, young workers without a college degree have become much less likely to even look for work, with their participation rate dropping by seven percentage points. Mull cited an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which found that tech and design fields, including computer science, computer engineering, and graphic design, are seeing unemployment rates above 7% for new graduates. Why the AI hype misses the mark Although the tech sector is buzzing about AI's potential to replace junior analysts or automate entry-level tasks, DeLong urged caution in assigning blame. In his typical style, he noted, 'there is still [no] hard and not even a semi-convincing soft narrative that 'AI is to blame' for entry-level job scarcity.' Hiring slowdowns, he pointed out, are driven by broader economic forces: uncertainty, risk aversion, and changes in how companies invest. Here again, DeLong's analysis rhymes and aligns with recent research from Goldman's Hatzius. The bank's quarterly 'AI Adoption Tracker,' issued in July, found that the unemployment rate for AI-exposed occupations had reconciled with the wider economy, which contradicts fears of mass displacement. They also noted there have been no recent layoff announcements explicitly citing AI as the cause, underscoring that it's contained to disruption of specific functions, not entire industries. Crucially, he argued, rather than hiring people, companies in the tech sector are splurging on 'the hardware that powers artificial intelligence'—notably Nvidia's high-performance chips—fueling a boom in capital investment while sidelining junior hires. 'For firms, the calculus is straightforward: Investing in AI infrastructure is seen as a ticket to future competitiveness, while hiring junior staff is a cost that can be postponed.' Underpinning these trends is a shift away from any and all risk. Employers prefer to hire for specific short-term needs and are less willing to invest in developing new talent—leaving young applicants caught in a cycle where 'just getting your foot in the door' is more difficult than ever. Incumbent workers, worried about job market uncertainty, are less likely to change jobs, leading to fewer openings and greater stagnation. DeLong's analysis harmonized with Goldman Sachs' findings about the declining premium attached with a college degree: 'For the longer-run, the rise in the college wage premium is over, and a decline has (probably) begun.' For decades, he continued, a college degree was a ticket to higher earnings, and the labor market rewarded those with advanced skills and credentials. In recent years, though, 'this has plateaued and may even be falling.' The causes are complex, he added, but the takeaway: While degrees remain valuable, they are no longer the ever-ascending ticket to prosperity they once were. These comments confirm the gloomy remarks of University of Connecticut professor emeritus Peter Turchin, who recently talked with Fortune about the declining status of the upper middle class in 21st century America. When asked where else he sees this manifesting in modern life, Turchin said, 'It's actually everywhere you look. 'Look at the overproduction of university degrees,' he said, arguing that the decreasing premium that Goldman and DeLong write about shows up in declining rates of college enrollment and high rates of recent graduate unemployment. 'There is overproduction of university degrees and the value of a university degree actually declines.' DeLong's bottom line for recent grads: Blame a risk-averse business climate, not technology, for today's job woes. And now that we know the economy may have been much more risk-averse in 2025 than previously, DeLong's warnings are worth revisiting. DeLong did not respond to a request for comment. For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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Ethereum turns 10: From scrappy experiment to Wall Street's invisible backbone

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

IBM touts software segment gains as infrastructure revenue falls

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Ethereum turns 10: From scrappy experiment to Wall Street's invisible backbone

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

Top economist Brad DeLong to recent college grads: Don't blame AI for job struggles—blame the sputtering economy

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