Could China's Tibet mega dam help boost its sway with South Asian neighbours?

The Star

2 days ago

China's latest mega dam on the Tibetan Plateau could help draw neighbouring countries closer into its economic orbit by supplying electricity and boosting growth, analysts have argued.
According to some estimates, the dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo will be the world's biggest, producing up to 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year, three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam.
State news agency Xinhua said over the weekend that its output would 'primarily deliver electricity for external consumption' but would also meet local demand in Tibet.
But the project has drawn concerns about the impact on water supply and ecological risks downstream in India and Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Brahmaputra, although Beijing has said it was not seeking to benefit at the 'expense of its neighbours'.
India is also worried about Beijing's efforts to strengthen its influence in South Asia, and Chinese observers said the project could help increase its sway over countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh, which have long struggled with power shortages.
The project 'will undoubtedly become a major power hub for surrounding countries and related neighbouring regions', according to Zhu Feng, dean of the school of international studies at Nanjing University.
'It will have significant strategic value in boosting electricity supply and industrial growth in the surrounding regions,' he said.
It would also play an important role in driving economic cooperation with its neighbours, something Beijing has made a priority in light of its rivalry with the US.
Lin Minwang, deputy director of Fudan University's Centre for South Asian Studies, said that in the long run, the hydropower project could help draw Southeast and South Asian countries more closely into China's economic orbit through electricity exports.
He said India might also benefit from the power generated from the dam, but border tensions would complicate the issue.
'The key issue is political relations,' said Lin. 'Northeast India is a highly sensitive area for New Delhi, and if electricity is to be sent to Bangladesh, it would require a transit route.'
India has already been investing heavily in hydropower projects in Nepal and Bhutan to secure its own supplies.
'Whether those countries will choose China or India [for future power imports] is another much bigger question,' Lin added.
The dam will be built close to the border with India and flows through Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian-controlled state that China claims as part of southern Tibet. Beijing has previously objected to Indian infrastructure projects in the state.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Beijing's Renmin University, said the project was first of all designed to meet China's own power needs, and 'whether demand is sufficient in the present domestic economic downturn and whether it is environmentally less risky are other matters'.
China has tried to address concerns about the environmental risk posed by the project and its impact on water supplies downstream, and said it would continue to strengthen cooperation with neighbouring countries.
Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday that the project 'aims to accelerate the development of clean energy' and 'comprehensive ecological and environmental protection measures' would be adopted.
'It will, as a by-product, aggravate the tensions with India and attract some Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] countries to China's power diplomacy. So it has double effects both internal and external,' Shi said.
'It will correspondingly increase China's influence [in Southeast Asia], in a competitive geopolitical arena over which the US and its allies have somewhat preponderance, especially because of [Donald] Trump's most recent trade agreements.'
Lu Gang, director of the Institute of International Studies at East China Normal University, said ensuring stable power supplies for its neighbours could 'help shape a positive image of China'.
'[This] will build trust with other countries. And, naturally, economic dependence will follow,' Lu said.
He also said the project may also have a longer-term strategic impact on regions such as Central Asia.
'For Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – both have abundant hydropower resources, but their infrastructure is weak. So if the project in Tibet is successfully implemented and generates economic benefits, it will serve as a stimulus,' he said. - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST