Trump's Scotland trip could be awkward for PM — here's what to expect
• Trump's links to Scotland — from golf courses to family history
Thousands of police officers will be present and the full cost of policing the trip is likely to be more than £10 million, based on previous Trump visits.Sir Keir Starmer will meet the president at Turnberry on Monday, with a formal bilateral meeting and lunch. The White House expects them both to head to Menie, where the US president is expected to play a round of golf to mark the opening of his new course. Given that Starmer has little or no interest in golf, it could be an awkward affair. And as ever with Trump, it is a case of expecting the unexpected.
At the centre of the agenda for talks between Starmer and Trump will be trade. The White House said that it wanted to 'refine' the deal hammered out between the nations this year, but what does that mean in practice?
Starmer has two priorities, the first of which is removing 25 per cent tariffs on steel exports to the US. There has been a disagreement about the types of steel that would be covered by a zero-tariff quota system, with a discussion over whether imported steel should be covered. The US has also been seeking assurances over British Steel, still formally owned by the Chinese Jingye Group, amid concerns that it could provide Beijing with a back door into the US market. Officials say there has been significant progress in both areas and a deal is expected. The other significant issue is pharmaceuticals. Trump has threatened to levy import duties of up to 200 per cent on drugs coming into the US. Given that the UK exports pharmaceuticals worth £9 billion a year to the US, this is a major cause for concern.
A top priority for Starmer will be to ensure that Trump follows through on his dramatic shift of position towards Ukraine. A few months after his disastrous Oval Office bust-up with President Zelensky, Trump is now condemning Russia and saying that he is 'very unhappy' with President Putin for failing to honour his promises. 'He talks nice and then bombs everybody in the evening,' Trump said recently of his Russian counterpart. Trump has now pledged to send 'top of the line weapons' worth 'billions of dollars' to Europe to help defend Ukraine, while threatening tariffs on countries that trade with Russia. Given Trump's inconsistency, Starmer's priority will be to ensure that this rhetorical shift translates to reliable support for Kyiv.
Trump has recently been increasing pressure on Israel to shift approach after reacting badly to what the White House described as 'pictures of starvation of women and children' in Gaza. He has shown clear signs of losing patience with Binyamin Netanyahu, months after tweeting an AI depiction of him relaxing with the Israeli prime minister in a 'Trump Gaza' resort. This presents Starmer with a question about how much political capital to deploy in persuading the president to help force a ceasefire. This week the prime minister described the situation in Gaza as 'intolerable on so many levels' and is facing increasing pressure from the left to do more, including recognising a Palestinian state. However judging how far to push Trump, given the president's long-standing support for Israel, is a delicate calculation.
Trump has repeatedly raised his fears over migration in Britain and more widely in Europe, saying that mass migration had created a 'total mess' that the US should learn from. He has said that London in particular is 'no longer recognisable' due to immigration and that it was 'changing the culture' of Europe, including Britain.Trump could be asked whether he still considers parts of London 'no-go zones' — a claim he made in 2015 as he said that parts of the capital had been so radicalised that police were afraid to go there, which would reignite his longstanding feud with Sir Sadiq Khan, the London mayor.
• What Trump protesters are preparing for his 'welcome' to Scotland
In the present climate Trump may have a view on the protests outside asylum hotels and the broader issue of social cohesion. Downing Street will be wary.
Trump's administration has deep concerns about the state of free speech in the UK, with officials accusing Britain of 'trampling democracy' and becoming a 'hotbed of digital censorship'. The White House has 'monitored' the case of Lucy Connolly, who was jailed for social media posts over the Southport riots, while JD Vance, the vice-president, has criticised bans on praying outside abortion clinics as infringing religious rights. Vance used his Munich Security Conference speech to claim that 'freedom of expression was 'in retreat' across Britain and wider Europe', directly singling out Starmer.The Online Safety Act, which comes into effect on Friday, has been a particular target of criticism with the US State Department saying that it had 'concern about the spill-over effects that impact free speech in America'.
For the president, golf is a serious business and that poses some tricky challenges for Starmer, who does not play.
For a start, Trump faces lingering local anger outside Aberdeen over claims he never made good on promises of lucrative development made when he bought the Menie Estate in 2006. Then there is the diplomatic headache of Trump's demand that his other Scottish course, Turnberry, host the Open championship. The British government is said to have interceded with golf's government body the R&A on this issue but will be wary of lobbying for special favours to please a foreign head of state. Unlike Finland's president Alexander Stubb, who wowed Trump with his golf prowess, Starmer has been unable to rely on his putting skills to forge a relationship. Indeed, the only cabinet minister with a serviceable golf game is said to be Lord Hermer. The attorney-general and international law enthusiast, who is unlikely to gel with the president, is not being deployed on the links.
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It's great to be here, I love standing on the soil of Scotland, Trump says
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