Bonnie Crombie defies grumblers as Liberal leadership review looms
The provincial Liberal chief faces a leadership review in September amid grousing from some party members that it's time for her to go as former rival Nate Erskine-Smith potentially waits in the wings.
In the snap Feb. 27 election,
Crombie
led the Grits to a respectable 30 per cent of the popular vote — behind Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives' 43 per cent, but well ahead of NDP Leader Marit Stiles's 18.5 per cent.
However,
the former Mississauga mayor
failed to win herself a riding and the Liberals' inefficient vote, a perennial problem, meant they took only 14 seats in the 124-member legislature to 80 for the Tories and 27 for the New Democrats. (There are also two Greens and one Independent MPP.)
Even though she returned them to official party status for the first time since 2018 — meaning additional funding for staff and research, a greater role in question period and standing on legislative committees — and has been unanimously endorsed by her caucus and the Liberal executive, some Grits remain dissatisfied.
A 'grassroots' group called New Leaf Liberals, co-founded by a one-time Erskine-Smith backer, launched an
online petition
saying the leader should resign if she fails to achieve a super majority of two-thirds support from delegates to the party's Sept. 12-14 annual general meeting at the Sheraton Centre in Toronto.
Crombie, who has been quietly criss-crossing the province meeting with Liberals to dissect last winter's campaign, said while she understands the criticism — and welcomes the feedback — she is 'confident' she will secure the threshold of more than 50 per cent as required by the party constitution.
'They're just disappointed we didn't win — and believe me, no one's more disappointed than me,' she said in a wide-ranging interview.
'I feel like I needed another year. I really wanted to showcase myself as a business person and a competent leader who has run a government and showcase my record as mayor.'
Ford's Tories had other ideas and —
after spending millions on attack ads targeting Crombie
— called an election 15 months earlier than the scheduled June 2026 vote, successfully framing the campaign as a referendum on who could best steer Ontario through a trade war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump.
'I couldn't speak to those issues with the same sort of credibility as he had because of course he was the premier,' said Crombie, admitting Ford exploited a 'leadership vacuum' in Canada on Trump because the federal Liberals were seeking a new leader in the wake of prime minister Justin Trudeau's January resignation.
'So we tried to break through and reframe the ballot question … on health care, affordability, tax cuts and education while he was breaking the caretaker convention (of limited government action during a campaign) and going to Washington.'
Crombie,
who fell to Tory rookie Silvia Gualtieri in Mississauga East-Cooksville
, said she's encouraged by what Liberals have told her on a 'listening' tour that has included nine regional meetings across Ontario.
'I'm doing it with some humility, because clearly it wasn't the result that I wanted. They truly felt that one of the reasons there was a snap election call was because of the momentum that we were building, the fact that we were rising in the polls and that we were raising money at a rate the Liberal party had never had before,' she said.
'But they did strongly believe that the election was stacked against us.'
Still, Crombie conceded she is hearing similar carping to that aimed at federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who (unlike her) squandered a years-long double-digit poll lead and lost to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals in an April campaign also dominated by Trump.
'It's much the same as what you've heard from (those) criticizing Poilievre's team: 'You needed to pivot.' So we're hearing that as well.'
While Poilievre, a 21-year MP who was defeated in his Ottawa-area seat, will contest a byelection in an Alberta riding vacated for him by a caucus colleague, Crombie plans to wait for an open provincial constituency.
'It would be a good urban seat, I think. We have to be strategic about it,' she said, stressing she has no plans to ask a sitting Liberal MPP to step aside.
As Crombie looks forward, critics want to see the back of her.
Nathaniel Arfin, a co-founder of the New Leaf initiative, maintained it is 'a grassroots group of organizers, staffers, former candidates, everyday Ontario Liberals (who) believe that change needs to be made in the party so that we can strengthen ourselves in order to defeat Doug Ford.'
Although Arfin, a computer specialist, worked on the
2023 leadership campaign
of runner-up Erskine-Smith, he insisted the progressive insurgents are not a stalking horse for the federal Beaches-East York backbencher, who sat out the recent provincial election after losing to Crombie.
'Nate's leadership was kind of my dipping my toe into the water and since then, I've also had a job (in the Prime Minister's Office under Trudeau). Many of us are Nate supporters,' he said of the New Leaf push.
'I don't know if Nate even wants to run again. I mean he was just re-elected federally.'
Erskine-Smith returned to Parliament on April 28, but
has publicly expressed his discontent with Carney's Liberals
since
being demoted from cabinet
after serving as housing minister in the final months of Trudeau's reign.
That suggests the self-styled maverick may well be open to making another run at the provincial leadership if Crombie is forced out.
Asked about New Leaf Liberals, Erskine-Smith said he's 'not involved in that project.'
But the four-term MP, a formidable organizer, did not rule out a second leadership bid if the job becomes available.
'It's past time for a change in government at Queen's Park, and I'm committed to helping where I can to make that happen,' said Erskine-Smith, who made a similar pledge after falling to Crombie in 2023 but returned to federal politics.
'I won't make any decision until the members have the chance to make theirs,' he said, 'and it will be important for the leader to secure a clear mandate in that process.'
Pressed about what that 'clear mandate' would look like, Crombie countered, 'We know what the (Ontario Liberal Party) constitution says. We will abide by the constitution.'
The leader was decidedly more pointed when asked if she were concerned Erskine-Smith may be nipping at her heels.
'I'm not worried about any specific personalities. If anyone had a desire, their opportunity would have been to run in the last provincial election. That's the difference — if you were really committed you would have run,' said Crombie.
'I don't plan to be going anywhere,' she added firmly.
Noah Parker, another New Leaf activist, emphasized the group's members are agnostic and not relitigating the last leadership race.
'We are from a variety of areas within the Liberal party. We have no funding. We've decided not to receive any backing or support from any potential leadership candidate,' said Parker.
'We're starting the conversation on the future of our party, rather than prescribing what we think the end goal is,' he said.
But the activist didn't mince words when asked if Crombie could meet the two-thirds bar proposed by New Leaf.
'Do I think she'll get 66 per cent? If you do a pulse check on the vast majority of the membership of the party, you know that is a minority opinion,' he said.
'I don't think a lot of people have high expectations … but in addition to that, there is a laundry list of specific and substantive changes that we're looking to make in the party that are bigger than the leader's office.'
That's a view shared by at least one Liberal MPP, who spoke confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations.
'We need to do better as a party and she needs to do better,' said the MPP, referring to Crombie.
One minister in Ford's cabinet said the Tories are closely watching what happens across the aisle.
Despite revelling in the challenges the Liberals have without their leader in the legislature, the minister privately cautioned against writing off a suburban centrist like Crombie who could appeal to PC voters.
'Look, Bonnie at her best can be impressive. She's energetic and can work a room. And,' the cabinet member said, motioning toward Ford's office door, 'she gets under his skin.'
A senior Liberal insider, also speaking confidentially, agreed it is noteworthy the premier remains more preoccupied with her than with the NDP's Stiles.
'Everyone recognizes we have a lot of work to do, but Bonnie is a moderate centrist who is not interested in fringe things. As Carney's election has shown, people are exactly where Bonnie is — in the centre,' said the Grit.
'So we do not have the time or the money to waste on another leadership race, which is something no one wants or needs right now. The economy is slowing down and we need to be a party of proposition not opposition while holding (the Tories) to account.'
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