Why Gavin McKenna's decision to join the NCAA could mark the end of major junior hockey in Canada as we know it

Yahoo

8 hours ago

Gavin McKenna, one of the hottest NHL prospects since Connor McDavid and the surefire No. 1 pick in next year's draft, is set to make an unprecedented move. It's one that could spark a major change in the Canadian hockey landscape for years to come.
The Whitehorse, Yukon, phenom made waves on Monday when it was reported that he would be leaving the WHL's Medicine Hat Tigers for the NCAA's Penn State Nittany Lions. The official announcement from the 17-year-old will be coming sometime this week, according to Elite Prospects' Cam Robinson.
It marks the first time a presumptive top NHL draft pick will be making the switch from the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), the world's top junior outfit, to the U.S. college scene to play out their all-important draft year.
BREAKING: Multiple sources indicate that Gavin McKenna will commit to Penn State University for 2025-26One of the most electrifying prospects chooses the Nittany Lions. A game-changing get for PSU hockey. Read more: https://t.co/5L6NFs8rqq pic.twitter.com/8KodDOh5nW
— Cam Robinson (@Hockey_Robinson) July 7, 2025
McKenna's move comes at a pivotal time for the CHL as a recent rule change looks poised to completely upend the traditional structure of junior and collegiate hockey in North America. High-end teenage talent, until now, would have to choose between the Canadian Hockey League — which features the WHL, OHL, and QMJHL — and the U.S. college route, as players would no longer be considered amateur athletes and subsequently lose their NCAA eligibility once they signed with a CHL team.
However, last November, the NCAA Division I Council voted to lift the previous restriction that barred CHL players due to its amateur status rules, and allow those playing major junior hockey to make the switch to U.S. college hockey as of August 1, 2025.
The rule change is the latest in the evolution of the NCAA, coming four years after collegiate U.S. athletes south of the border were first allowed to be compensated for their name, image, and likeness, creating the framework known as "NIL."
Essentially, NCAA athletes can now be paid, and there is no shortage of money being thrown around, especially in sports like football and basketball. McKenna may be the first "generational" hockey prospect to bolt from the Canadian major junior hockey scene for the NCAA, but there's no reason to believe he'll be the last, especially if the CHL doesn't adapt in a hurry.
McKenna didn't waste anytime busting his way onto the scene. As a 14-year-old (yes, 14) McKenna made his debut in the WHL — a league filled with 18, 19 and 20-year-olds and known as arguably the toughest league for young players to find their footing.
The kid was an instant star, catching the hockey world's attention by potting four points in his WHL debut as, by far, the youngest player in the league.
Although he was granted exceptional player status by BC Hockey and Hockey Alberta, which allowed him to enter major junior hockey as a 14-year-old, the WHL didn't grant him full exceptional status, meaning he was limited to just 16 games in his rookie season, where he potted 4 goals and 14 assists and still finished over a point-per-game.
A star was born.
The ultra-skilled, uber-talented winger was back in the WHL as a full-time player during his 15-year-old season, where he put up 34 goals and a whopping 97 points in just 61 games during the 2022-23 campaign — absurd output for such a young player in such a competitive league.
His first two seasons in the league were massive, but it was last year, however, where McKenna really made his mark.
The 6-foot, 165-pound Yukon native put on an absolute clinic throughout his 16-year-old season with Medicine Hat, posting an egregious 41 goals and 129 points in just 56 regular-season contests — a ridiculous clip of 2.30 points-per-game.
To put that in perspective, McDavid, the consensus best player on planet earth, posted 99 points in 56 games during his 16-year-old campaign in the OHL back in 2013-14 (1.77 points-per-game). Sidney Crosby, meanwhile, put up 2.29 PPG in his draft-year-minus-one in the QMJHL in 2003-04.
Connor Bedard, the latest prospect to get boast the "generational" tag, tallied 51 goals and 100 points in 62 contests in the WHL, the same league as McKenna, as a 16-year-old, good for 1.61 points-per-game.
As far as production goes in their draft-year-minus-one, McKenna stands right with, or above, the best prospects the NHL has seen over the past two decades.
Going to be seeing a lot of this from Gavin McKenna and the Penn State Nittany Lions this season pic.twitter.com/onDrAD8gSf
— Drop the Mitts Hockey (@dropmittshockey) July 7, 2025
Boasting exceptional skating ability, silky-soft hands, and an ultra competitive motor, McKenna also became the third youngest player to be named CHL Player of the Year after earning the award following last season's heroics, behind only Sidney Crosby (2004) and John Tavares (2007).
He'll be the player to watch for Canada at next year's World Junior tournament and undoubtedly the top pick in the 2026 NHL draft.
As McKenna becomes the first high-profile, yet-to-be-drafted player to take advantage of the new NCAA rules, many are wondering why a sure-fire No. 1 overall pick would leave the CHL to play a year of college hockey south of the border.
There are several attracting factors to players like McKenna, and the big one that can't be overlooked is the almighty dollar. Per College Hockey Insider Mike McMahon, McKenna will reportedly earn somewhere in the neighbourhood of $700,000 USD to play one season with Penn State, which will be the richest in college hockey history. Not a bad pay-day for a 17-year-old who would've earned essentially peanuts had he stayed in the WHL for his draft year.
With the risk of injury always high and the future never certain, the potential for an elite talent like McKenna to cash in big before even turning pro is alluring to say the least.
CHL players aren't paid, at least not over the table. Billet families are provided, players can earn future college tuition at Canadian universities, and they're given a weekly stipend — but aren't able to earn anywhere close to what these NCAA schools can now offer top Canadian Hockey League talent.
This will surely be a major issue as major junior teams try to prevent players from bolting to the U.S. collegiate scene, but there's no solution in sight unless the CHL adjusts its rules and allows its member leagues to over similar amounts of cash that NCAA schools can.
Gavin McKenna's deal with Penn State University is apparently $700K.That has to be the biggest college hockey deal ever, right...? pic.twitter.com/XLYIB3M8CO
— Zeegs (@SDZegras) July 8, 2025
The closest comparable to McKenna's decision that we have is when highly-touted prospect, and now Toronto Maple Leafs captain, Auston Matthews scoffed at both the NCAA and CHL and instead decided to play pro in Switzerland for his draft year, reportedly earning $400,000 from the Zurich Lions before turning pro the following year.
Another reason high-end talent may continue to leave the CHL prior to their draft years is for the opportunity to play against older, more physically-developed and seasoned competition, as the average age of NCAA players is 2-3 years older than that of the average Canadian Hockey Leaguer.
Players with NHL aspirations will find it appealing to prepare for the next level by competing against those in the U.S. college ranks — theoretically making the transition to the NHL that much smoother after a year or two of NCAA hockey under their belts rather than out of the CHL where the playing pool is made up of mostly teenagers.
NCAA Division 1 schools — fuelled by big-time boosters, alumni, and money-making sports programs like football and basketball — also have better facilities, for the most part, and more resources for coaching, training, and development, than the majority of CHL programs, which operate largely in medium-to-small sized towns and rely heavily on ticket sales and community support to keep their programs afloat. That, coupled with a more practice-heavy schedule and less games than the CHL boasts, allows for better development and less injury risk, all extremely appealing factors for top-end teenage hockey talent hoping to realize their NHL dreams.
These are all major obstacles the CHL will have to somehow overcome, in a hurry, if the once-premier destination for high-end NHL prospects wants to stop the bleeding and avoid becoming a second-tier entity.
Since the new ruled were approved by the NCAA last November, the CHL has already lost a tonne of players to the U.S. College ranks, with more than 170 CHL player past and present committing to NCAA programs over the past seven months, according to Sportsnet.
Though many have aged out of junior, several star CHL players who still have junior eligibility — including Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Cayden Lindstrom (Michigan State), 2025 NHL first-round draft prospect Malcolm Spence (Michigan), Calgary Flames prospects Henry Mews (Michigan) and Luke Misa (Penn State), and 14th overall pick Jackson Smith (Penn State) — have all decided to leave the Canadian major junior scene for the lucrative pastures of the NCAA, and this is just the beginning.
The CFL must adapt or die, it's as simple as that.