Which MLB pitchers could be next to join 3,000-strikeout club?

USA Today

3 days ago

Now that Clayton Kershaw has officially become the 20th pitcher in major league history to record 3,000 career strikeouts, baseball fans' attention can turn to the question of who might be the next pitcher to join him.
Kershaw is now the third active member of MLB's 3,000-strikeout club, along with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
On the horizon though, only four current pitchers are even two-thirds of the way to the milestone.
So let's take a look at some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game today and see how likely it is they'll become part of that exclusive group.
Next closest to 3,000 strikeouts
Only four pitchers currently on MLB rosters have even surpassed 2,000 career strikeouts. Unfortunately, the top two are currently on the injured list, putting a halt to their climb up the leaderboard.
Sale, 36, went on the injured list June 21 after suffering a fractured ribcage diving for a popup in a game against the New York Mets. He was later moved to the 60-day injured list, which means he can't return until at least mid-August.
The reigning NL Cy Young award winner had continued to be one of the league's best pitchers this season -- with 114 strikeouts in 89 ⅓ innings (11.5 K/9). However, staying healthy has proved to be a challenge for Sale throughout his 16-year career.
At his current career rate of 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter (and his career average of 6.3 innings per start), Sale would need to make another 60 starts to get to 3,000. Assuming five more starts this season, Sale would be on pace to hit the milestone toward the end of the 2027 season at age 38.
Cole, 34, is out for the season after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his right elbow in March. He's expected to be able to resume throwing in September with an eye toward being ready for the start of the 2026 season. Pitchers have been able to come back from elbow surgery and have successful careers -- Verlander was one who did it and won a Cy Young at age 39 – so it's certainly possible Cole will make it to 3,000 strikeouts.
If he can maintain his career strikeout rate, Cole would need 106 more starts to hit 3K. If his recovery is successful, he could potentially get there during the 2029 season.
At age 41, Morton is unlikely to make it to 3,000 – even though he has averaged 192.8 strikeouts a year over the past four full seasons. Even at that amazing pace, he's still need to pitch until he's 45 to get there.
Probably the most surprising member of the 2K club, Darvish has yet to pitch this season as he works his way back from elbow inflammation he first developed this spring.
Since he began his pro career in Japan and only started pitching in MLB in 2012, Darvish, 38, probably doesn't have enough time to get to 3,000 K's. However, he did lead the majors in strikeouts with 277 in 2013.
Possible late-career surge
Of the 10 remaining pitchers at least halfway to 3,000, Nola, 32, has the best combination of accumulated strikeouts and potential production. However, he also is currently on the 60-day injured list with ankle and rib issues.
He's averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings over his 11-year career -- one that has been largely injury free. Over the past six full MLB seasons, he's averaged 203 strikeouts per year. At that pace, he would have needed almost seven full seasons to get to 3,000. This year's injury seemingly would extend that into 2032 before he'd be able to reach 3,000 K's.
Ray, 33, will likely pass the injured Nola sometime this month. He's 20 months older, but has a better career whiff rate (11.0 K/9) than the Phillies star. In fact, Ray has the third highest strikeout rate in major league history of pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings.
However, he's dealt with health issues over the past two seasons – pitching a total of 34 innings in 2023 and 2024 combined. Back in top form this season, the 2021 AL Cy Young winner would need to continue his historic whiff rate over another 200 starts to get to 3,000 strikeouts. So optimistically, 2032.
Too early to tell
The road to 3K is long and filled with obstacles. Even the most talented pitchers need to avoid catastrophic injuries and have lengthy careers to have a shot. But they all have to start somewhere and bat-missing talent is a good place to start.
The defending AL Cy Young award winner just might be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now. He led the majors in strikouts last season with 228 and is just six behind Garrett Crochet's 144 for the MLB lead this year.
Projecting his career over at least another decade is tricky, but let's give it a shot. He's whiffed 10.4 batters per nine innings over 120 major league starts, averaging 5.6 innings per start. At that pace, Skubal would need to make 344 more starts to reach 3,000 strikeouts.
He made a career-high 31 starts last season, so if he's able to do that every year going forward ... it would take Skubal until the second half of 2036 to hit the 3,000 mark.
Just for kicks, let's do last seasons's NL Rookie of the Year. Now in his first full major league campaign, Skenes is just slighly ahead of Skubal in averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings over his 41 big-league starts.
Needing just 2,715 more strikeouts to join the 3K club, Skenes would need to stay healthy and maintain his current pace for strikeouts and innings pitched per game for another 392 starts. Let's be optimistic and say he makes 34 starts per season every year. That's another 14 in 2025, plus 11 full seasons and another four starts in 2037.
Good luck fellas. Clayton will see ya' in Cooperstown!