Donald Trump has a secret weapon that could leave Putin defenceless

Telegraph

2 days ago

US President Donald Trump is changing his strategy on Russia from carrot to stick. Having announced on Monday that the US would largely reverse a decision to halt the provision of certain weapons to Ukraine, on Tuesday he hit out at Vladimir Putin for throwing 'bulls—' America's way. A lot of what the Russian leader says, remarked President Trump, turned out to be 'meaningless'.
It appears that Trump has developed a more accurate understanding of Putin's behaviour on the battlefield, too. After a phone call with the Russian president last week, he assessed that Putin's intention was 'to go all the way [and] just keep killing people'. Indeed, far from preparing for peace, Russia has assembled an estimated 695,000 troops for a summer offensive and has ramped up its aerial bombardment of Ukraine.
It is unlikely that President Trump would ever act on his threat – as revealed in a leaked audio recording – to 'bomb the s—' out of Moscow, which appears to have been more a warning not to invade in the first place. The US is also unlikely to have either the ability or desire to supply the Ukrainians in an indefinite war of attrition, if Putin continues to disappoint the White House's peace efforts.
But Trump might well have something else in mind.
The first indication came on Sunday, when the president threatened the Brics countries, which include Russia, with an extra 10 per cent tariff. 'Any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics, will be charged an additional 10 per cent tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy,' he wrote on Truth Social.
Trump also hinted in May that Russia could be hit with something big if Putin doesn't play ball: 'What Vladimir Putin doesn't realise is that if it weren't for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He's playing with fire!'
What could Trump mean? The United States and Europe have already imposed over 16,000 sanctions on Russia, making it the world's most sanctioned country. Russian banks have been kicked out of the Swift international payments system, its central bank's international assets have been frozen, and other financial restrictions have been placed on critical sectors of the Russian economy. None of these punitive measures have changed Putin's decision calculus on Ukraine.
But Trump might have a secret weapon in his new Russia playbook.
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is a fellow disrupter and out-of-the-box thinker. A talented Wall Street operator, he has been a key figure in Trump's trade war with China. In April, he revealed that he and Trump had strategised on a plan for China. He stated that he was 'certain' that the economic conflict 'will affect their economy much more than it will ours,' adding that 'they have shown themselves to the world to be the bad actors'. Indeed, China eventually settled on a deal with the Trump administration, but the White House has continued efforts to squeeze it, notably via a new agreement with Vietnam. Intense economic pressure appears to have been enough to bring Beijing to the table.
Bessent is no stranger to taking risks based on exploiting his opponent's vulnerabilities, either. Early in his career, he was employed by George Soros and instrumental in the financier's bid to 'break the Bank of England' in 1992 through crushing trades against the pound. The result was humiliation for the British central bank, and more than $1 billion in profits for Soros's firm. Two decades later, in 2013, Bessent reportedly made another $1.2 billion for Soros by betting against the Japanese yen.
There are also clear signs that Russia's economy is facing strain from the effort of sustaining the war. Inflation remains high, consumer demand is falling, the domestic manufacturing industry is struggling, and the budget is under strain. Putin's central banker, the Ivy League educated Elvira Nabiulina, warned at the start of the month: 'We have adapted to some external challenges [but] we have very turbulent times ahead'.
Putin will be aware that Trump might be plotting something big. After all, he has been signalling to the Russian strongman that there's a finite time limit to sign the deal. The most recent warning came on Friday. Responding to a reporter's question, Trump admitted that he threatened Putin with new sanctions. 'We talk about sanctions a lot … He understands that it may be coming.'
But is Putin underestimating the willingness of Trump and leading advisers to really tighten the screws? The Sanctioning Russia Act, sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham, is already on the table. Under its terms, any country that deals with Russia across a range of areas would be slapped with 500 per cent tariffs on all goods and services imported into the United States, amounting to an almost total embargo on the Kremlin's trading partners.
Putin has been able to maintain his war effort, because he took measures to sanction-proof his economy prior to the invasion and because Russia was able to circumvent the restrictions on its ability to export oil and import components critical to its economy. If Trump and Bessent really decide to get tough, however, will Russia be able to avoid economic collapse? More importantly, will Trump's new stick approach compel Putin to end the war?
Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst, formerly with the US Defense Intelligence Agency. She is the author of 'Putin's Playbook', Regnery 2021. Her upcoming book 'Trump's Playbook' will be published later this year. Rebekah's podcast Trump's Playbook is running on her channel Censored But Not Silenced and is available on most social media platforms @Rebekah0132.