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Associated Press
22 minutes ago
- Associated Press
IMF upgrades outlook for global economy, citing less-than-expected damage from Trump's trade wars
WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund is upgrading the economic outlook for the United States and the world this year and next because President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies have so far proven less damaging than expected. The IMF now forecasts 3% growth for the global economy this year. That is down from 3.3% in 2024 but an improvement on the 2.8% it had forecast for 2025 back in April. The 191-country lender, which works to promote growth, stabilize the world financial system and reduce poverty, expects world growth to come in at 3.1% next year, up a tick from the 3% it had forecast three months ago. Trump's decision on April 2 – 'Liberation Day,'' the president called it -- to impose taxes of 10% or more on U.S. imports from most of the world's countries had been expected to be a bigger drag on global growth. But the damage was limited, the IMF said, partly because many U.S. importers scrambled to bring in foreign goods before Trump's tariffs took effect and partly because Trump ended up suspending his biggest levies (including a 145% duty on Chinese goods). 'This modest decline in trade tensions, however fragile, has contributed to the resilience of the global economy so far,' IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in remarks prepared for the rollout Tuesday of fund's updated forecasts. 'This resilience is welcome, but it is also tenuous. While the trade shock could turn out to be less severe than initially feared, it is still sizeable, and evidence is mounting that it is hurting the global economy.'' Tariffs raised $108 billion for the U.S. Treasury from October through June, nearly double the $55.6 billion they brought during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Global growth of around 3% is below pre-pandemic average and the world economy would be growing faster without Trump's trade wars. The IMF modestly upped its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.9% this year and 2% in 2026 when the big tax cuts Trump signed into law July 4 are expected to provide 'a near-term boost.'' The Chinese economy, the world's second biggest, is expected to grow 4.8% this year, a hefty upgrade from the 4% the IMF had forecast in April. China is getting a boost from lower-than-expected U.S. tariffs and from government spending. The 20 economies that share the euro currency are collectively expected to expand 1%, up from the 0.8% the IMF had forecast in April. But a big chunk of that growth is coming from a surge of pharmaceutical exports from Ireland, which were timed to beat Trump's expected tariffs on drugs. Japan remains in a slow-growth rut and is expected to eke an expansion of just 0.7% this year and 0.5% next. India is once again expected to be the world's fastest-growing major economy, expanding a forecast 6.4% this year and next. Trump has pressured Japan and the European Union to accept 15% U.S. tariffs on their exports. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines also agreed to accept stiff U.S. tariffs. More such deals are expected before Friday when Trump will slap even higher tariffs on countries that don't agree make concessions. Trump's protectionism is buffeting global commerce. The IMF upgraded its forecast for growth in world trade, measured by volume, to 2.6% this year. That is up from the 1.7% it had predicted in April and reflects a surge in shipments as exporters tried to beat the tariff crunch. But eventually the higher U.S. levies are expected to take a toll. The IMF sees trade growing just 1.9% next year, down from the 2.5% it had forecast in April.
CNBC
22 minutes ago
- CNBC
Apple opens manufacturing academy in Detroit as Trump ramps up pressure to invest in U.S.
Faced with intensifying pressure from President Donald Trump to bring more jobs to the U.S., Apple is opening a manufacturing program in downtown Detroit. The Apple Manufacturing Academy, which is being administered by Michigan State University, will offer workshops on manufacturing and artificial intelligence to small and medium-sized businesses when it opens in August, Apple said on Tuesday. The company said that it would "train the next generation of U.S. manufacturers" and that Apple engineers would participate in the workshops. Apple is one of the most admired hardware companies in the world, manufacturing tens of millions of complicated devices each year across a global supply chain. "With this new programming, we're thrilled to help even more businesses implement smart manufacturing so they can unlock amazing opportunities for their companies and our country," Sabih Khan, Apple's newly named chief operating officer, said in the statement. The announcement is part of a public effort by Apple to highlight its U.S. operations and investments to appease Trump, who has called on the company to move iPhone production to the U.S. while he implements tariffs that will likely raise Apple's costs. Apple first promised to open the Apple Manufacturing Academy in February, when it announced plans to spend more than $500 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, investing in products, programs and companies. Apple also said it would assemble AI servers in Houston and buy chips from a TSMC factory based in Arizona. While Trump hailed Apple's plans in February, his administration has continued to try and strong-arm the company into assembling iPhones in the U.S., which experts say would be cost prohibitive and take a very long time. In May, Trump said he had a "little problem" with CEO Tim Cook, who had said that Apple expanded production to India to avoid Chinese tariffs. "I said to him, 'my friend, I treated you very good. You're coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you're building all over India.' I don't want you building in India," Trump said. Apple runs a similar program focusing on software development, instead of manufacturing. Apple has 18 developer academies around the world, according to its website, notably in countries where the iPhone maker wants to forge a working relationship with governments, such as Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Korea. The only developer academy in the U.S. is also based in Detroit, in partnership with Michigan State, which said this spring that it has about 200 students annually. Apple said that it would provide consulting services to small businesses through the program, and that the manufacturing academy would also offer some courses virtually later this year.
New York Times
22 minutes ago
- New York Times
I.M.F. Raises Global Growth Outlook as U.S. Looks to Avert Trade Wars
The world economy is expected to slow this year as a result of President Trump's trade war. But fears of a damaging economic slowdown have been tempered as the Trump administration pursues lower tariff rates than economists feared earlier this year. The International Monetary Fund, in its world economic outlook released on Tuesday, projects 3 percent global growth this year. That is higher than the 2.8 percent it forecast after Mr. Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April, while down from the 3.3 percent it predicted in 2024. Mr. Trump announced plans in April to raise tariff rates to their highest levels since the Great Depression, sending markets tumbling and causing economists to predict a downturn. Since then, the Trump administration has been negotiating trade deals with some of America's largest trading partners and has delayed or reduced some of the tariffs. The I.M.F. is currently projecting an effective tariff rate in the United States of 17.3 percent, down from its April forecast of 24.4 percent but still a historically high level that is a result of Mr. Trump's imposing tariffs on all of the United States' trading partners. The outlook was also buoyed by the fact that importers rushed to make purchases before tariffs took effect and because of the tax cuts that Republicans passed that could stimulate the U.S. economy. The I.M.F. expects the U.S. economy to grow 1.9 percent this year, down from 2.8 percent in 2024. Output in the euro area is projected to accelerate to 1 percent from 0.9 percent last year. Europe's outlook was revised higher because U.S. importers rushed to buy Irish pharmaceutical exports ahead of tariff increases. China's economy is forecast to grow 4.8 percent. That is down from 5 percent in 2024 but stronger than the 4 percent that the I.M.F. projected three months ago. The Chinese economy has benefited as companies have stocked up on its exports to get ahead of potential tariff increases. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
