South African Factory Mood Escapes Contraction Despite US Tariffs
Absa Group Ltd.'s Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research, rose to 50.8 in July from 48.5 in the prior month, the lender said on Friday. It was the first time since October that the index has pushed above the 50 level that indicates an expansion.
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USA Today
25 minutes ago
- USA Today
Trump, when in trouble, throws tantrums. The economy is his latest conniption.
Trump's economy is telling you a story the president doesn't want you to hear: Prices are rising, growth is slowing, unemployment is increasing in some sectors – and the stock market is noticing. President Donald Trump applies a very simple – and deeply dishonest – approach to telling the story of America's economy: Everything his opponents do is designed to destroy it, and only he can fix it. And if the economic data doesn't support Trump's claims, he plays the victim of a rigged system. This way, in his own telling, Trump can never be wrong. Either his policies saved the day, or his rivals cheated him out of victory. No surprise there. This is Trump's schtick for everything, from developing real estate to keeping score at golf to winning and losing presidential elections. We're about seven months into Trump's second term, and the data produced by his chaotic economic policies – trade wars and tariffs for our allies, mass deportations that impact agriculture and other industries, overhaul of agencies that has eliminated nearly 150,000 federal employees – tells a story Trump doesn't want you to hear. Trump and Republicans still owe us an economic resurgence Prices are rising, growth is slowing and unemployment for some Americans is increasing. The stock market is noticing. Trump's conniption about adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job numbers from May, June and July continued with an attempt to distort reality during an Aug. 5 CNBC interview, where a friendly interviewer couldn't shake him from his baseless claim that the report was "rigged." This is instructive because it shows us what he fears. Our economy displayed some strengths and plenty of challenges in 2024 when Joe Biden was president and Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential election to Trump, who directly linked economic revival through tariffs and trade wars with the deportation of undocumented immigrants. We've now seen nationwide deportation efforts so random and ruthless that public sentiment has turned on Trump for this issue. But where is the economic revival that he promised? There, too, on the economy, Trump's approval ratings are dismal. He's tanking. And he needs someone to blame. So he fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Aug. 1 and continued this week to claim, while offering zero evidence, that she had somehow rigged the reports that showed America adding a lackluster 73,000 jobs in July while revising downward the projections for May and June by 258,000 jobs. Trump had previously touted the May and June reports as proof that he was "revitalizing the American economy." The revised data bursts those boasts. No wonder he wigged out. He must know that he now faces what he warned about while campaigning for reelection. The truth of the economy is plain to see Trump, campaigning in Wisconsin in May 2024, claimed Biden's administration was suffering from "stagflation" – a period of increasing inflation, slowing economic growth and high unemployment. America hasn't actually seen stagflation since Jimmy Carter's presidency. But Trump told his supporters in Wisconsin that stagflation "spells the death of the American dream," while directly linking his false claim to his complaints about undocumented immigrants. Now that he is in charge, talk of stagflation is back in a way that Trump doesn't want to hear. Opinion: Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill victory tour hits major bump − voters hate it Prices in June ticked up 2.6% from 12 months before, when Biden was president. The Associated Press says it's a sign that "broad-based tariffs are starting to lift prices for many goods." Unemployment is climbing among Black Americans, rising from 6.3% in July 2024 to 7.2% this July, an economic indicator that can be an early sign of a weakening job market. A new report showed the nation's gross domestic product, a broad measure of the nation's economy, grew by less than 1.3% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% growth a year ago. While the GDP is still growing, Trump's unpredictable dalliances with tariffs affected the percentage. The stock market, which has been on a Trump tariff roller coaster ride for months, clearly took note on Aug. 5 of rising prices and falling employment, giving back some recent gains. Americans keep disapproving of Trump's policies None of this means America's economy is on the precipice. It just means the economic revival Trump promised on the campaign trail is not happening. If anything, his policies are making things worse, not better. But that's not a story Trump could ever tell. Instead, he'll try to construct an alternate reality where he is winning at everything while foes, real and imagined, attempt to defeat him. Opinion: Republicans in Congress head home to angry voters. So much for summer break. Just listen to Trump ramble on CNBC, where he tried to float the whopper that he has "the best poll numbers I've ever had." It was just too much, so the host had to tell him he was wrong. His response: "fake polls." The truth: 54.8% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy while 41.9% approve, as of Aug. 4, according to an average of surveys compiled by the website RealClear Polling. But Trump would much rather fire statisticians for producing accurate reports than admit that his promise of economic revival has been stymied by his own actions. That's not going to fix anything. The most likely outcome is that future reports will echo Trump's lies to prevent his tantrums. Follow USA TODAY columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan. Sign up for his weekly newsletter, Translating Politics, here.
CNBC
26 minutes ago
- CNBC
Trump's tariff playbook comes with a baseball twist
Say what you like about U.S. President Donald Trump's leadership style and policies, but he has a way with words. Trump's love of deal-making and former career as a real estate magnate are both well-known, with the loquacious president often peppering his speeches and interviews with business-related terminology. Now, he's turning to the sports world for inspiration when discussing the U.S.' recent trade deals with global trading partners. In a Tuesday interview with CNBC, the president likened billions of dollars' worth of investments in the U.S. — pledged by Europe and Japan as part of their recent trade deals with Washington — to the "signing bonus" baseball players typically get when they join new teams. "We're taking in trillions of dollars," Trump told CNBC's "Squawk Box," noting "people love the tariffs, they love the trade deals, and they love that foreign countries aren't ripping us off anymore." "If you look at Japan, we're taking in $550 billion, and that's like a signing bonus that a baseball player would get. He would get slightly less than that ... But they give a signing bonus of a million dollars, or $2 million or $20 million, or whatever the hell they give today," he said. "So I got a signing bonus from Japan of $550 billion. That's our money. It's our money to invest, as we like." He also noted the European Union's pledge to both invest in the U.S. and buy $750 billion worth of American energy. The EU and U.S. announced a trade deal in late July with the agreement bringing import tariffs down to 15%. In addition, Washington said the EU "will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028." No other information was forthcoming on the promised investment, however. When CNBC anchors on Tuesday asked for more clarity, Trump said, "the details are $600 billion to invest in anything I want, anything, I can do anything I want with it." Asked what would happen if the investments did not come through, Trump said, "Well, then they pay tariffs at 35%. No, no. They brought down their tariffs." Speaking anecdotally, the White House leader said that representatives from other nations had asked why the EU had received a lower levy. "And I said, 'Well, because [the EU] gave me $600 billion.' And that's a gift — that's not a loan. There's nothing to pay back. They gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want." Similarly, the U.S.' trade deal with Tokyo stated emphatically that "Japan will invest $550 billion directed by the United States to rebuild and expand core American industries." The White House said the funds will be targeted toward "the revitalization of America's strategic industrial base," including energy infrastructure and production, semiconductor manufacturing, critical minerals mining, pharmaceutical and medical production and commercial and defense shipbuilding, as the U.S. looks to reduce its reliance on foreign-made goods, materials and suppliers.
Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Pakistan Strikes U.S. Oil Pact as Trump Jabs at India
The United States and Pakistan have finalized a trade and energy pact that could reshape both nations' approach to energy cooperation and strategic alignment. Announced on Wednesday by President Donald Trump, the agreement includes U.S. participation in developing Pakistan's oil reserves and a substantial reduction in tariffs on Pakistani exports to the U.S. The new deal lowers the U.S. tariff rate on Pakistani goods from 29% to 19%, offering critical relief to one of the world's largest textile exporters. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan posted a $3 billion trade surplus with the United States in 2024, with more than 80% of its exports to the U.S. consisting of textiles and garments. Washington is Pakistan's largest export market, accounting for over 17% of the country's total exports. 'We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves,' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this partnership. Who knows, maybe they'll be selling Oil to India someday!'Pakistan's deputy prime minister Ishaq Dar confirmed the deal on X, but offered no further details. The agreement is being framed in Islamabad as part of a broader economic reset, aimed at deepening bilateral ties and addressing Pakistan's chronic energy vulnerabilities. Pakistan imports more than 85% of its crude oil, according to the State Bank of Pakistan, and crude remains its single largest import category. In the fiscal year ending June 2025, the country spent $11.3 billion on crude oil imports, nearly one-fifth of its total import bill. That level of dependency has left the economy exposed to global price shocks and dollar liquidity crises. Trump's reference to 'massive' reserves may be more political than geological. A 2015 study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated Pakistan had 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil. But more recent estimates of conventional proven oil reserves range between 234 million and 353 million barrels, placing Pakistan in the lower half of global rankings. Daily production of crude and condensate averages just 60,000 barrels, well behind regional peers such as India, which produces more than 1 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, the government views American involvement as a breakthrough. In a statement following Trump's announcement, Pakistan's finance ministry said, 'This deal marks the beginning of a new era of economic collaboration especially in energy, mines and minerals, IT, cryptocurrency and other sectors.' The capital investment required to tap Pakistan's reserves is substantial. In a public briefing last year, Energy Minister Mohammad Ali stated that Pakistan would need between $25 billion and $30 billion over the next decade to develop even 10% of its estimated 235 trillion cubic feet (TCF) in gas reserves, enough, he said, to stem production declines and reduce reliance on imported LNG. No U.S. company has yet publicly confirmed interest in taking the lead. Foreign participation in Pakistan's oil and gas sector has remained tepid in recent years. A 2023 auction of 18 onshore and offshore exploration blocks failed to attract significant international bidders. In June 2023, Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL) announced its exit from the country, selling its downstream assets to Saudi Aramco in a move that reflected growing risk aversion. Security remains a major concern. Several energy and infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) were suspended in 2024 following terrorist attacks on project sites in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While CPEC has delivered over $25 billion in investment and added 6,000 megawatts to the national grid, it has also driven up Pakistan's external debt, which now stands at $100 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance. Roughly one-third of that debt is owed to China. The World Bank estimates that nearly half of Pakistan's 250 million people live below the poverty line. Inflation, especially in food prices, has remained stubbornly high, with domestic purchasing power steadily eroding over the past two years. Beyond the U.S. deal, Pakistan has been actively courting other partners. In April 2025, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Turkey to explore offshore oil and gas in Pakistani waters. The country is also expanding domestic exploration. In July, state-owned Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) announced successful testing at the Makori Deep-03 development well in the Tal Block, yielding 22.08 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) of gas and 2,112 barrels of condensate. Production is slated to begin by September, offering a rare short-term boost to domestic output. The terms of Washington's prospective involvement, whether through direct financing, technology transfer, or private sector participation, have yet to be finalized. But Islamabad is positioning the agreement as a move away from overreliance on Chinese capital and toward a more balanced foreign investment strategy. Pakistani officials likewise have yet to confirm whether the agreement includes upstream investment, technical assistance, or equity participation by U.S. firms. No American company has publicly expressed interest, and Islamabad has not announced a bidding process or operator selection timeline. At this stage, the deal appears to be a political signal rather than a commercial commitment. Notably, Trump's public statement that this could lead to Pakistan exporting oil to India one day is likely intended as another warning to New Delhi over its Russian crude imports. Trump has previously used energy cooperation as a geopolitical lever, applying pressure on countries that maintain oil ties with Russia and Iran. India, which has steadily increased its imports of discounted Russian crude since 2022, has already faced tariff threats from Washington. By positioning Pakistan as a potential beneficiary of U.S. energy support, while hinting at regional exports, the administration may be testing New Delhi's diplomatic posture or signaling dissatisfaction with its current alignment. By Alex Kimani for More Top Reads From this article on
