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India's wholesale inflation drops to -0.13% in June on food, fuel prices
The WPI measures the average change in prices of goods sold in bulk and serves as a key indicator of inflation at the producer level. It reflects supply and demand trends across sectors such as agriculture, mining, and manufacturing.
The WPI for all commodities stood at 153.8 in June, down from 154.1 in May. On a month-over-month basis, the index declined 0.19 per cent—a sharper fall compared to the 0.06 per cent contraction in May.
WPI Food Index
The food index, which comprises the majority of the WPI basket, declined by 0.26 per cent year-on-year, reversing the 1.72 per cent increase seen in May. This came despite a month-on-month increase in the Food Index to 190.2 from 189.5, supported by higher prices of vegetables, fruits, and milk. However, on an annual basis, vegetable prices were down, with the onions prices falling 33.49 per cent, and potatoes declining by 32.67 per cent.
Fuel and power
Fuel and power prices also softened, with the group index declining 2.65 per cent year-on-year. Within this category, electricity prices dropped 9.10 per cent sequentially.
Petrol and diesel fell 6.57 per cent and 5.12 per cent respectively in Jne 2025 compared to the same month last year.
RBI FY26 inflation forecast
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) anticipates inflation to remain moderate. In its last monetary policy meeting, the central bank projected retail inflation at 3.7 per cent for FY26, down from its earlier estimate of 4 per cent. The quarterly inflation forecasts are as follows:
Q1 FY26: 2.9 per cent
Q2 FY26: 3.4 per cent
Q3 FY26: 3.9 per cent
Q4 FY26: 4.4 per cent
While favourable trends in food production and commodity prices support this outlook, the RBI cautioned that weather-related disruptions and changing global tariffs could still pose inflationary risks.
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