Economists Sometimes Don't Grasp the Future or the Past
When it comes to economists, the adage 'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future'—often attributed to Yogi Berra—might be amended to note that even their hindsight isn't 20/20.
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Yahoo
a minute ago
- Yahoo
Cocoa Prices Pressured as Supply Concerns Ease
September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) today is -49 (-0.60%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) is down -111 (-2.02%). Cocoa prices are sliding today, with NY cocoa posting a 2-week low and London cocoa posting a 1-week low. Cocoa prices are under pressure on speculation that cocoa will be exempt from President Trump's tariffs, which would ease supply concerns. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick noted last week that goods not produced in the US could be exempted from tariffs. More News from Barchart Is the Corn Market Undervalued? Below-Average Rain in Brazil Supports Coffee Prices Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Last week, cocoa prices rallied to 1-month highs on concern that the slowdown in the pace of Ivory Coast cocoa exports could tighten global supplies. Today's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.76 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to August 3, up +6% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December. Concerns about dry weather in West Africa are also bullish for cocoa prices. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season remains below the 30-year average, and combined with high temperatures, risks hurting cocoa pod development for the main crop harvest that starts in October. Concerns over tepid chocolate demand are bearish for cocoa prices. Last month, chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG lowered its margin guidance for the year due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales. Also, chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance earlier this month for a second time in three months, citing persistently high cocoa prices. The company projects a decline in full-year sales volume and reported a -9.5% drop in its sales volume for the March-May period, the largest quarterly decline in a decade. Cocoa prices sold off last month, with NY cocoa sinking to an 8.5-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa slumping to a 17-month nearest-futures low. Weakness in global cocoa demand has hammered prices. The European Cocoa Association reported on July 17 that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell by -7.2% y/y to 331,762 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -5% y/y. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings fell -16.3% y/y to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for a Q2 in 8 years. North American Q2 cocoa grindings fell -2.8% y/y to 101,865 MT, which was a smaller decline than the declines seen in Asia and Europe. In a bearish development, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports reached a 10.5-month high of 2,368,141 bags on July 22. Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8.3% y/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024/25. Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa prices have support from quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT. Another supportive factor for cocoa is smaller cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects Nigeria's 2025/25 cocoa production will fall -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT. ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
CNN
a minute ago
- CNN
How Texas' redistricting effort is having major implications across the US
The outcome of the political battle over Texas' redistricting effort is already having major implications across the country. Other Republican-dominated states are considering following Texas' lead as Democratic governors weigh their options to retaliate with their own mid-decade redistricting efforts. The Texas legislature, meanwhile, is at a standstill after House Democrats fled the state in a bid to block the Republican effort to redraw congressional districts in the GOP's favor. President Donald Trump has pushed the redistricting effort, and Gov. Greg Abbott called the 30-day special session in which the GOP unveiled proposed maps that could shift as many as five US House seats into the Republican column. Abbott is now threatening to remove the Democratic lawmakers who left the state in a bid to block the House from voting on those new maps. Here's a look at what's happening in Texas, and why it matters: Congressional district lines are required to be redrawn once a decade, after the census. But mid-decade maneuvers like the one in Texas are unusual. Texas Republicans want to pad the US House GOP majority ahead of next November's midterm elections by increasing the number of seats Democrats need to flip — currently three — to claim House control. Democrats face a much stiffer challenge in winning back the Senate. But if they win the House majority, it would give the party a foothold for Trump's final two years in office. Democrats could slow or halt the president's legislative agenda and use House committees to investigate his administration's actions, much as they did in the last two years of Trump's first term, from early 2019 to early 2021. The proposed maps unveiled last week by Texas' majority-Republican legislature would aggressively redraw the state's congressional districts to make five seats much more likely to favor GOP candidates. The new Texas map features 30 districts that Trump would have won in 2024 if the map was in place, up from 27 under the current district lines. In total, there are five more seats that Trump won by more than 10 percentage points, according to data from the Texas Legislative Council. The proposed map eliminates the seat of Rep. Greg Casar, who would likely be forced into a primary with another liberal Democrat, Rep. Lloyd Doggett, in the Austin area. Republicans also propose merging the Houston-area seat of Rep. Al Green with a vacant seat held by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died in office earlier this year. Green's district was altered more than any other sitting member in the plan. The map would also make two south Texas seats held by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez more Republican-leaning. But multiple Democrats view the seats as still in reach for the two centrist members who typically performed ahead of statewide or national Democrats. Democrats are in the minority in the Texas House, but they hold enough seats that they can deprive the chamber of the number of legislators necessary to do business under House rules. That's why many fled the state on Sunday, with most flying to Illinois and others traveling to New York, outside the reach of Texas law enforcement. The departed lawmakers could face $500-a-day fines that can't be paid with campaign funds — though the House Democrats and their supporters are already raising money to help cover those fines. Former US Rep. Beto O'Rourke told CNN his political action committee, Powered By People, which raised more than $700,000 for state House Democrats during a quorum-break in 2021, will 'raise whatever it takes, for as long as it takes, to help these Texas Democrats with their lodging, with being able to feed themselves, supporting them with these $500-a-day fines.' 'We have their backs all the way,' he said. Meanwhile, Democratic governors in deep-blue states are plotting retribution. The governors of California, Illinois, Maryland New Jersey and New York have suggested they will explore redrawing their own congressional district maps to add more Democratic-leaning seats, or left the door open to doing so. 'The gloves are off, and I say, bring it on,' New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said Monday. Once a critical swing state, increasingly red Ohio is required to redraw its congressional districts this fall because the 2022 map was struck down as unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court. The makeup of the Buckeye State's high court has changed since that ruling, and the new court is seen as much more likely to green-light a map that favors Republicans, who hold 10 of the state's 15 congressional seats. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently floated the idea of a mid-cycle redistricting in his state, too. 'I think the state malapportioned,' he told reporters in July, adding it would be 'appropriate to do a redistricting here in the mid-decade.' Punchbowl News reported the White House is pushing Missouri to redraw its districts to target one of just two Democratic-held seats, that of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, in a state where the GOP holds the other six House seats. The White House has also urged Indiana to redraw districts in which Democrats hold two of nine seats. Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan's northwest Indiana district would likely be the target if the Hoosier State were to do so. The redistricting battles cannot carry on without deadlines. In many states, including Texas, candidates must file for next year's primary ballots before the end of this year. Abbott on Monday indicated he could seek more extreme measures than daily $500 fines to try to force Democrats' hands or circumvent their quorum-break. He threatened to remove Democrats from the state House if they don't return by 4 p.m. ET, when the legislature is scheduled to convene in Austin. Abbott told Fox News that the Democratic lawmakers had 'absconded' from their responsibilities. 'I believe they have forfeited their seats in the state legislature because they're not doing the job they were elected to do,' he said. CNN's David Wright, Kaanita Iyer, Sarah Ferris and Ethan Cohen contributed to this report.
Buzz Feed
3 minutes ago
- Buzz Feed
Trump Criticizes Taylor Swift In Sydney Sweeney Rant
President Donald Trump is continuing to respond very normally to news that Sydney Sweeney is a registered Republican. The actor found herself amid backlash following her "great jeans" American Eagle ad, in which she said, 'Genes are passed down from parent to offspring, often determining traits like eye color, personality, and even hair color. My jeans are blue." Given the political climate, some criticized the ad as a racist "dog whistle." This weekend, BuzzFeed was the first major outlet to confirm that Sydney is registered as a Republican in Florida, according to publicly available voter registration records. When Trump was seemingly told about her registration in an interview this morning, he responded, 'She's a registered Republican? Oh, now I love her ad!' Shortly after the interview, Trump hit Truth Social with another take: "Sydney Sweeney, a registered Republican, has the 'HOTTEST' ad out there. It's for American Eagle, and the jeans are 'flying off the shelves.' Go get 'em Sydney!" Indeed, Sydney's Ultra Wide-Leg Jean is currently listed as out of stock on American Eagle's website. Interestingly, the success of American Eagle sub-brand Aerie has been attributed to its emphasis on diversity in its branding. Trump compared the ad to car company Jaguar's viral "Copy Nothing" campaign last year, which featured a diverse selection of models and was branded "woke" by the right: "On the other side of the ledger, Jaguar did a stupid, and seriously WOKE advertisement, THAT IS A TOTAL DISASTER! The CEO just resigned in disgrace, and the company is in absolute turmoil. Who wants to buy a Jaguar after looking at that disgraceful ad." He further evoked the Bud Light boycotts, which began after transgender TikToker Dylan Mulvaney posted a less-than-a-minute-long video on Instagram promoting the company's giveaway. The President wrote, "Shouldn't they have learned a lesson from Bud Lite, which went Woke and essentially destroyed, in a short campaign, the Company. The market cap destruction has been unprecedented, with BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SO FOOLISHLY LOST." "Or just look at Woke singer Taylor Swift," he continued, taking another shot at the singer. "Ever since I alerted the world as to what she was by saying on TRUTH that I can't stand her (HATE!). She was booed out of the Super Bowl and became, NO LONGER HOT. The tide has seriously turned — Being WOKE is for losers, being Republican is what you want to be. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Similarly, Trump posted (unprovoked) back in May, "Has anyone noticed that, since I said 'I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT,' she's no longer 'HOT?'" It's worth noting that Taylor is reportedly enjoying some downtime after her record-breaking Eras tour. Cool! Very normal stuff from the President!
