Can interceptor drones stop Russia's terror bombing?

Hindustan Times

4 days ago

RUSSIA'S GROUND offensive in Ukraine's east is making slow progress this summer, at huge cost. But its mounting drone campaign against the country's cities is arguably a more serious threat. Day after day, strikes against Ukraine's civil and military infrastructure, not to mention people's homes, are battering the country's economy and eating away at its morale. Finding ways to block more of them is an urgent priority.
On July 9th over 700 drones, 60% of them carrying warheads and the rest cheap decoys, attacked Kyiv and other targets. That week alone, said Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, Russia launched more than 1,800 drones and 83 missiles in a campaign of 'intensifying terror against our cities and communities'.
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Swarms of Geran-2s, Russia's version of the Iranian Shahed kamikaze drone, are starting to overwhelm Ukraine's defences. Until March this year, only about 3-5% of the Gerans were getting through. Last month that rose to some 15% of a significantly higher number. In addition to killing people and destroying infrastructure, the attacks exert relentless psychological pressure. They often last through much of the night. The aim is 'to deepen the feeling that there is no safety and no confidence in the state or in the defence forces', Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Army's Southern Division, told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia has improved both the quantity and quality of its drones. Since last summer it has raised monthly production of Gerans five-fold, according to Ukraine's military intelligence service. Increasing supplies of Chinese dual-use components have helped. In May about 2,700 Gerans and 2,500 Gerberas (a smaller drone usually used as a decoy) were produced at two factories, both nearly 1,500km east of the front line. The factories have been hit by Ukrainian drone strikes, but output has not been severely dented and is expected to rise further.
Since June Russia has been using an upgraded Geran-2 equipped with video guidance systems, artificial intelligence and improved electronics to thwart jamming, according to Olena Kryzhanivska, a defence analyst. It can fly at altitudes of up to 4,000m, allowing it to increase its speed from 185kph to 400kph as it descends on the target. Earlier versions carried a 40kg warhead, but the payload on new variants can be as heavy as 90kg. A Geran-3 with a turbojet engine that can fly at up to 600kph has also entered service, but it has an estimated cost of $1.4m, compared with about $200,000 for the upgraded Geran-2.
That poses a dilemma for Ukrainian defenders. Using million-dollar missiles such as the IRIS-T to shoot down drones that cost $200,000 or less can quickly exhaust high-end air defences, which are needed to stop ballistic and cruise missiles. Until recently a combination of electronic warfare (EW) and mobile firing groups with heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft artillery, such as the German Gepard, managed to destroy the vast majority of drones. But they are struggling against improved Gerans flying at high altitude on unpredictable flight paths.
The most promising solution is cheap interceptor drones. At least four Ukrainian firms, including Wild Hornets and Besomar, are producing different models. So are Tytan, a Germany company, and Frankenberg, an Estonian one. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, says that interceptor drones have a success rate of 70% against Gerans. Last week Mr Zelensky ordered his defence ministry to rapidly sign large-scale contracts for the proven interceptors. On July 25th he urged drone companies to boost production to at least 1,000 interceptors per day. Doing so, the president said, entailed an 'urgent funding requirement' of $6bn. Unless Russia manages to raise its production of kamikaze drones significantly above the current 200 or so a day, that could tilt the advantage back to the defenders.
Charitable organisations such as the Sternenko Community Foundation and Come Back Alive have helped finance the drones' development. Taras Tymochko, a drone expert at Come Back Alive, says each interceptor must cost no more than $5,000. They require a speed of around 300kph and must fly and loiter at altitudes of up to 5,000m. (That means fixed-wing drones, not quadcopters.) They must hit the Geran and explode on impact; getting close is not enough.
The challenge now, says Mr Tymochko, is to award contracts, increase production and train operators—this last potentially a major bottleneck. Matching Russian production of Shaheds and Gerans is ambitious, but 'we are really close.'
There are still technological hurdles, says Max Enders of Tytan Technologies. Drones need to be integrated with existing radar networks. They need advanced artificial intelligence to make them autonomous and resistant to jamming. He foresees an adaptation race, with each side constantly upgrading software in 15-to-20-day innovation cycles. At some point the Russians may be able to send swarms of drones that communicate with each other to get around defences.
Interceptor drones are no silver bullet, says Ms Kryzhanivska. Short-range defence will still require gun systems such as Ukraine's Sky Sentinel, an autonomous turret equipped with a heavy machine gun, and Rheinmetall's Skynex, designed to combat swarm attacks. Neither is yet available in significant numbers. Ukraine is also developing Tryzub, a laser system that can supposedly down aerial targets at altitudes of 3,000m or above. For now interceptor drones are the best hope. But in the meantime, the Gerans keep coming.