Uterine cancer projected to rise in US, Black women likely to be hit hardest

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Uterine cancer cases in the U.S. will rise significantly by 2050, with Black women three times more likely to die from it, a study from the American Association for Cancer Research projects.
Uterine cancer is the most common gynecologic cancer in the U.S. In 2024, there were almost 70,000 cases, according to the National Cancer Institute.
Over the past 30 years, uterine cancer cases and deaths have jumped. NCI data shows that between 2015 and 2019, there was about a 2% increase in new cases per year, the highest for any cancer in women.
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Researchers at Columbia University used population data and computer modeling to predict how many people will get uterine cancer -- and how many will die from it -- over the next 30 years. They predict that the number of new uterine cancer cases will increase by over 50% for Black women compared to about 30% for white women by 2050.
Elena Elkin, one of the study's authors and a Ph.D.-level researcher at Columbia's Mailman School of Public Health, pointed to an aging population as one major cause of the projected increase.
"Like many cancers, uterine cancer is a disease of aging. Another major factor is the increase in overweight and obesity in the U.S. population," she said.
Elkin pointed to decreases in hysterectomies -- surgery to remove the uterus -- for conditions like fibroids and endometriosis as another reason uterine cancer rates are increasing. More women are living with their uterus, putting them at risk of developing the disease, she noted.
The uterus is a hollow, pear-shaped organ located in a woman's pelvis where a fetus develops and grows. Uterine cancer refers to any cancer that arises in this organ, including endometrial cancer, the most common form. Uterine sarcomas that develop in the muscles or the tissues of the uterus are more rare -- and more fatal.
Overall, uterine cancer has an 81% five-year survival rate.
"Survival outcomes are generally good, because most cancers are diagnosed at an early stage," Elkin said.
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Unfortunately, this is not the case for all.
For those diagnosed with more aggressive forms of the disease, five-year survival drops to 20-50%. Black women are already more likely to have aggressive forms and are two times more likely to die from uterine cancer compared to white women, NCI statistics show.
The American Association for Cancer Research study projects worsening racial disparities. By 2050, Black women could be three times more likely to die of the disease.
"Studies have shown that these disparities are due to delays in diagnosis, barriers to accessing care, and receiving sub-optimal care," Elkin said.
Some research has linked chemical hair relaxers to uterine cancer. In the U.S., about 95% of Black women under age 45 have used chemical hair relaxers at least once in their lives.
Chemical relaxers have been found to have toxins like formaldehyde, heavy metals, and endocrine disrupting chemicals like phthalates and parabens. Many have been linked to cancer.
Although chemical relaxer use has declined significantly in recent years, women who used them at all during their lifetime are still at risk of possible long-term impacts.
There are currently no routine screening tests for uterine cancer. People are often diagnosed once they start having symptoms like abnormal vaginal bleeding typically after menopause, pelvic pain and weight loss.
"We don't yet have a test that is accurate enough to provide the maximum benefit and minimum harm," Elkin stated.
The study model found that if there was an accurate screening test for women at age 55, rates of uterine cancer cases would significantly decrease.
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"We can use models like this one to evaluate emerging technologies for screening," she said.
Although the study's uterine cancer projections are concerning, Elkin said she remains optimistic. She pointed to emerging treatment like immunotherapy and bio marker-based therapies as promising options.
Elkin also emphasized targeting risk factors as a way to lower the number of new cases.
"Population level changes in overweight and obesity, perhaps through improved access to the current generation of weight loss medications, could lead to reductions in uterine cancer cases in the future," she said.
Dr. Adeiyewunmi (Ade) Osinubi is an emergency medicine resident physician at the University of Pennsylvania and is a member of the ABC News Medical Unit.