Return of the native
A Thackeray reunion could influence politics in Maharashtra in multiple ways. One, it can reshape the political ground in Mumbai and other urban pockets such as Nashik and Thane, where the Shiv Sena has historically held sway. The Shiv Sena (UBT) is facing an existential crisis after the Eknath Shinde faction (now recognised as the Shiv Sena) did well in the last assembly polls and won over most of the second-rung leaders. Two, a common front of Sena (UBT) and MNS on an aggressive platform of native identity can complicate equations within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA): The Congress, the largest constituent of MVA, has already expressed reservations about the MNS, and its senior leaders were not present at the Saturday rally. This is not surprising since endorsement of nativist politics, which has expressed itself as violence against migrants in the past few days, can be counterproductive, especially in Bihar, where assembly elections are due later this year.
Politically, three strands are likely to be in play in the short term in Maharashtra. One, the Hindutva politics of the BJP; two, the nativist politics of the Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS; and three, a broad secular bloc under the Congress and the NCP. The big question is if the nativist agenda can counter the appeal of Hindutva, which, the assembly election results suggest, has pan-state support in Maharashtra. Aggressive mobilisation over language and identity has limited electoral traction now — it could not help the Shiv Sena win Maharashtra (except in alliance with the BJP) even in the heyday of Bal Thackeray. It can potentially polarise the vote, but the demography of a city such as Mumbai is such that a pro-Marathi agenda may result in a counter-polarisation of non-Maharashtrian voters, who are as significant a constituency as the Marathi voters (and traditional supporters of the BJP, mostly). But for the Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS, the immediate consideration is to reclaim the legacy of Bal Thackeray and establish primacy at least in the resource-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation. The Saturday rally was the first step towards that goal.
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