NATO aims to flatter, but Trump remains unpredictable

Australia Broadcast Center

5 days ago

Donald Trump was in a bad mood when he left the White House Rose Garden for the NATO summit in The Netherlands.
The leader of the free world spoke of Israel and Iran like they were two underperforming contactors on one of his New York construction sites.
Perhaps his mood improved on Air Force One as it raced across the Atlantic — but the NATO summit in the Hague wouldn't be at the top of the president's list of things to cheer him up.
He's openly criticised NATO for several years — once describing it as obsolete.
Former officials within his administration have spoken of Mr Trump's episodic displays of contempt for the alliance, with some reports claiming he's threatened to withdraw the US from the organisation.
NATO's secretary-general Mark Rutte seems acutely aware that the other 31 NATO nations are concerned about Mr Trump's unpredictability and the fact he could remove the US's membership at any moment.
Many analysts believe this year's summit and Mr Rutte's recent comments are a deliberate attempt to flatter the president.
Mr Rutte is using the conference as a vehicle to urge member nations to up defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 and so far, aside from one hold out, it looks like he'll be successful.
Europe's defence spending has been a bug bear of Mr Trump who sees a modest investment in military operations as a way to shift the responsibility onto the US.
The White House will likely see Mr Rutte's constant lobbying and the fact he's discussed defence spending in almost every public engagement at the NATO event so far, as a big win.
He's also been fawning over Mr Trump in recent days — in a private message which the president later posted on social media, Mr Rutte showered the leader with gushing praise.
"Mr President, dear Donald, Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, that was truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do. It makes us all safer."
Mr Rutte reportedly wrote in the message: "You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening. It was not easy but we've got them all signed onto 5 per cent!"
The event also only requires leaders to be in town for about 12 hours rather than the standard two days.
As evidenced at the recent G7 event in Canada where Mr Trump dramatically left the event early to deal with what he said was "big stuff", the commander in chief likes these events to run short.
It's these attempts at flattery that may have led Mr Rutte to remark at the summit's opening forum on Tuesday that NATO members shouldn't worry about the US' commitment to the alliance.
"So my message to my European colleagues is: stop worrying so much. Start to make sure that you get investment plans done, that you get [the] industrial base up and running," he said.
"This is what you should work on and stop running around being worried about the US. They are there, they are with us.
"There is total commitment by the US president and the US senior leadership to NATO," he said, adding that its backing of the organisation came with an expectation that European countries and Canada would continue to increase their defence budgets.
But despite NATO rolling out the red carpet for the Americans, Mr Trump is refusing to temper his running commentary on the alliance.
While on Air Force One, Mr Trump raised doubts over his commitment to one of organisations cornerstone agreements — Article 5 — which states that an attack on one NATO nation is an attack on the alliance itself.
When asked whether he was committed to it, he responded: "Depends on your definition. There are numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right? But I'm committed to being their friends.
"I'm committed to saving lives. I'm committed to life and safety. And I'm going to give you an exact definition when I get there. I just don't want to do it on the back of an airplane."
The presence of Mr Trump has shifted the focus away from the purpose of the summit, which was to agree on a spending plan and discuss a way to restrict Russia's war effort.
The shortened summit means there will be no meeting of NATO's Ukraine council.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is an invited guest at the summit, told Sky News UK on the morning of the conference's first day that the war in the Middle East was diverting attention away from his country.
"It is a big problem, the political focus is changing, and that is understandable … and this may mean that aid from partners, above all the United States, may be reduced," he said.
Mr Zelenskyy was given centre stage at the first major event of the summit, where he addressed a defence industry forum and spoke of the enormous challenge his military were facing.
"We all understand that the source of this war and the long-term threat to the European way of life is Russia. But in reality, we are not just facing Russia alone," he said.
"We are facing a network of state and non-state actors that are serving the cause of aggression. This network includes Russia, North Korea, the current regime in Iran and Chinese companies."
Mr Zelenskyy has been critical of NATO's increased defence spending timeline saying it's too long and has warned that Russia may attack a NATO member in the next five years.
The Ukranian leader will meet with Mr Trump on the second day of the summit, in what is expected to be another eventful bilateral between the pair.