Chinese aircraft carrier sails into Hong Kong to boost patriotism
The Shandong entered the city's waters alongside another vessel from its battle group in the early morning hours. According to state media, two destroyers and a frigate had accompanied the aircraft carrier into Hong Kong. The warships will be open for public visits this weekend.
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The PBOC's response is complicated by the fact that deflation has not been persistent for more than a half century and also because the tools China is introducing are novel and untested – in China. Easing monetary policy while reining in market tendencies to price in the most severe economic scenarios has seen a comparatively inconsistent policy mix that has seen an intermittent bond-purchasing programme; on-again, off-again rate reductions; and occasional draconian policies such as the disciplining of certain regional banks for purchasing too many government bonds. How are the PBOC's actions affecting foreign investor sentiment? On one hand, ultra-low Chinese yields, a flattening yield curve and ongoing depreciation pressures on the renminbi are understandably alarming. Authorities are wary, as the one ending to the decades of the Chinese economic miracle they are keen to sidestep is any comparison with Japan's experience of recent decades: low nominal growth, low or negative yields and a weak currency. The PBOC wants its monetary policies to be correctly transmitted and to avoid monetary easing stretching much beyond what it has been announcing. On the other hand, even if monetary easing has run faster than planned, low yields may be welcome. Given the record levels of public debt and outstanding budgetary challenges, low rates could partially alleviate the challenging fiscal trajectory and support economic restructuring, thereby facilitating the sought-after soft landing. Plus, a weaker renminbi helps combat low inflation, so the low yields achieved via monetary easing, accelerating credit growth and ultimately depreciating the currency might prove strategically beneficial. Nevertheless, the PBOC's erratic easing announcements followed by tightening complicate policy signalling. A clearer communication strategy is needed as China transitions from opaque policymaking to greater transparency and market engagement. Foreign investors have been comparatively unphased by the PBOC interventions to date as real rates have stayed attractive and bond prices remain high. Global investors are accustomed to interventionist policies like QE so are unlikely to exit unless they are faced with direct capital restrictions. Balancing the US dollar-yuan exchange rate using monetary tools looks challenging. What is your observation of and outlook on the PBOC's moves? The PBOC is navigating a structurally slowing economy facing deflation threats while endeavouring to avoid asset bubbles and rising debt risks, even though growth came in better than economists had anticipated at 5.2% year-on-year in the last quarter. China is seeking to liberalise its capital markets but the PBOC is not accustomed to markets doing so much of the easing for it so it is rightly seeking to prevent monetary conditions from easing too quickly or by too much. In this context, the PBOC is targeting a guided and gradual loosening of monetary conditions through interest-rate cuts, balance-sheet policies and the currency. Strengthening communication following the example of developed market central banks could help temper market volatility and strengthen credibility. For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macro Economic Council and Lead Global Economist of Scope Group. The rating agency's Macroeconomic Council brings together the company's credit opinions from multiple issuer classes: sovereign and public sector, financial institutions, corporates, structured finance and project finance. 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