UFC 317 odds, predictions: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira headlines an action-packed card

New York Times

3 hours ago

The UFC is set with one of the best cards of the year this weekend at UFC 317. Both the lightweight and flyweight titles are on the line.
I'll be breaking down both of those championship matchups below, as well as one additional fight from the undercard, which has a ton of potential for action. If there are any other fights you'd like to chat about, please let me know in the comment section.
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A new lightweight champion will be crowned Saturday as former featherweight king Ilia Topuria squares off with Charles Oliveira.
Oliveira has held the lightweight strap himself until he lost it to Islam Makhachev in 2022. Makhachev has now chosen to vacate his own belt in a corresponding move and should challenge for the welterweight title later this year.
What better way to fill the void than two previous champions doing battle, though it seems the public has chosen their favorite.
Topuria, who is coming off back-to-back knockout victories against Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, is currently a -500 favorite on BetMGM, which is an implied win rate of 83.3 percent. It's a heavy number for a fighter who has only competed at lightweight once. You could argue that Topuria's vicious knockouts over Holloway and Volkanovski are the superior betting indicators, especially as Oliveira can be hurt.
Topuria will continue to use his boxing to close the distance and land mixed-level combinations once he can break into the pocket. He has immense KO power in that range, and it does seem likely that if he connects on Oliveira, Oliveira will go down.
Additionally, Topuria holds a 92 percent takedown defense rate, and it's difficult to project Oliveira for much wrestling success. If he cannot take Topuria down and this is a striking affair, Topuria will carry more power and more moment-winning upside, which could easily be enough to carry him to a win and another highlight reel knockout.
Oliveira is a record holder in the UFC for finishes and submissions, and there's no doubt he's an offensive threat. He's a dangerous muay-thai striker, with some of the best offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) in the UFC today, and his wrestling is quite strong.
One of my concerns for Topuria is that he fails to out-volume most of his opponents. But Topuria's five-round victory over Josh Emmett is a good sign that he can at least sustain volume and power over 25 minutes. In his other fights, Topuria has differentials of -3, -8, +4, -2, +8, +15 and -4. He has a negative differential on average throughout his past four.
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Oliveira isn't a high-volume striker, but he is five inches longer and three inches taller, and should kick enough at distance to stay competitive. He might get hurt badly once Topuria closes the distance, but Topuria has been rocked badly before, too, and Oliveira certainly has KO upside of his own.
My other concern for Topuria is that although his wrestling defense is good and his BJJ is very good, the one time he was taken down in the UFC, against Bryce Mitchell, he never got back up. Oliveira may not have sustained wrestling success, but he lands 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and has elite BJJ on top. He is likely the best and biggest wrestling threat Topuria has ever faced.
Ultimately, I think Oliveira is a great test for Topuria, and as long as Oliveira remains conscious, I believe he will be competitive. Considering Oliveira has size advantages, and is very skilled in multiple areas, I do consider him a live underdog.
I'm personally not betting Topuria at a big price, although I don't mind Topuria to win by TKO at -180 if you're looking for a prop to play. Oliveira at +360 feels reasonable on paper, but it's still a difficult matchup for him, and if I were to play it, I'd only consider a sprinkle.
Pushing his way up the pound-for-pound list, Alexandre Pantoja has now won seven consecutive fights in the flyweight division, which includes four championships. He'll aim to make that No. 5 as he squares off with Kai Kara-France in the co-main event.
This is a rematch of sorts as the two fought back in 2016 on the flyweight season of The Ultimate Fighter. Pantoja beat Kara-France two rounds to zero to advance, but it was so long ago that I don't put much stock in it.
Though he's now 35 years old, Pantoja seems to be getting better and is clearly in his prime form, coming off a dominant submission win over Kai Asakura in December. Despite the finish, I think Pantoja's success has primarily stemmed from his offensive output and round-winning abilities.
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Not only is Pantoja a high-volume muay-thai striker, but he's elevated his wrestling output and has been crushing on that front in recent matchups. At his peak, Pantoja has landed 125 significant strikes and nine takedowns, 95 significant strikes and eight takedowns and 129 significant strikes and six takedowns. Over the course of 25 minutes, that kind of output is going to be challenging to beat.
I do think Pantoja has vulnerabilities. He's not a devastating knockout artist, and he's not the most physical guy in the division. He can be hit a lot. He can also be taken down. His ground control is a bit one-dimensional.
However, that one dimension is a pretty important aspect, as Pantoja is one of the best back-takers in the sport. There, he can also threaten for the RNC.
In order to beat Pantoja, you have to hurt him. You have to keep up with his pace. You have to outwrestle him. Over 25 minutes, he's going to be a tough out.
Kara-France definitely carries enough power to make this interesting. He's coming off a devastating KO win over Steve Erceg, and we've seen him score big KOs on a few occasions.
He's a good kickboxer, and his striking is his primary strength. He is a solid volume fighter, landing 4.56 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.22 per minute with a 65 percent defensive rate. What stands out there for me, despite the power, is the 65 percent defensive number, where Pantoja only holds a defensive rate of 50 percent.
If we get a stand-up fight here, Kara-France can win it. However, Pantoja still has hope. He lands just as much, if not more volume than Kara-France outright. Kara-France has been knocked out before and dropped by multiple opponents. Pantoja could hurt him, too.
Over 25 minutes, I'd expect both guys would win rounds, and it would be a competitive affair in general.
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On BetMGM, Pantoja is lined at -275, which is an implied win rate of 73.3 percent. You can get this line near -250 on other books, though. I'm not sure how much more value is on the bone at this price, but I consider Pantoja fairly safe to win, and I don't mind him as a parlay leg if that sort of thing interests you.
One of the best fights on the slate is a potential No. 1-contender matchup between former title challenger Brandon Royval and Joshua Van in the flyweight division.
I'm a huge fan of Van. I think he's on the path to becoming the champion of this division. He's still only 23 years old, but I consider him one of the best at 125 pounds already.
Van is a super high-volume boxer who can build throughout a fight, which is a great recipe for breaking opponents. He's currently landing 8.20 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.26 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. We've also seen him top out at 165, 156, 125 and 120 significant strikes over 15 minutes, which is elite.
I think Van can compete with anyone in the division on the feet, and especially so over five rounds, which he hasn't had the chance yet to prove. This is only a three-round fight.
Van is more vulnerable as a grappler. We've seen him lose via grappling on the regional scene, and we've seen him taken down in the UFC. I thought Rei Tsuruya had a really good chance to upset Van, but Van completely shut him down. After that performance, I have confidence in Van's defense.
I've been less high on Royval than Van, but I also respect who he is as a fighter.
Royval is a pace machine, too, so this fight has the makings for fireworks. Royval lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.06 per minute with a 47 percent defensive rate. He topped out at 145 significant strikes landed against Brandon Moreno in 2024.
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More importantly, it was Royval's willingness to spam strikes that won him the fight over Moreno. He attempted 510 significant strikes compared to Moreno's 211. That's more than 20 strike attempts per minute for 25 minutes.
Granted, Royval missed most of them, landing at only a 28 percent clip compared to Moreno's 53 percent. But the judges barely know what's landing and what's not, so offensive output like that is still a huge positive.
Additionally, Royval is an opportunistic grappler and has secured a handful of chokes throughout his career, including one over Kara-France in 2020. Royval is a dangerous offensive fighter. He spams a lot of strikes and can threaten in volume and is not easy to grapple with.
I do personally favor Van because I consider Van to be far more effective as a striker. The way I see Royval winning is by keeping Van at distance, throwing lots of kicks and jabs and not allowing Van to close the distance. Once Van does close that distance, he should carry a major power advantage and should be able to land far more effectively.
It still gives Royval openings. He could hurt Van, who was knocked out by Charles Johnson in the third round of their July matchup. He could potentially find a takedown and immediately lock up a submission.
I think the most likely outcome is that we'll have some fun early exchanges, where Royval is competitive, but he simply cannot keep pace with Van, who eventually finds his range and starts to land the bigger shots.
On BetMGM, this fight is lined as a near pick 'em with Van sitting at -120 and Royval priced at +100. I do think Van is a slight value at this number, and I'm willing to play him.
My primary hesitation is that Van just fought in June, and a short turnaround may affect his performance. I don't focus on those narratives, though, as ultimately Van looked phenomenal in that outing and cruised to a TKO win. I think he is live for a TKO here too, but I'd much prefer the moneyline at near even money.
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(Photo of Ilia Topuria: Angel Martinez / Getty Images)