Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

02-03-2025

The Toronto Maple Leafs (37-20-2) meet the Pittsburgh Penguins (24-29-9) Sunday at PPG Paints Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (TNT / truTV / Max). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Penguins odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The home team has won both meetings to date, with the Penguins winning 5-2 Dec. 7 as moderate underdogs (+145) as the Over (6.5) cashed.
Toronto has won 5 of the past 7 meetings since Nov. 15, 2022, with the Under going 7-2-1 in the past 10 in the series since Nov. 20, 2021.
The Maple Leafs scratched out a 3-2 victory at the New York Rangers Friday as slight favorites (-115) as the Under (6) cashed. LW Matthew Knies and RW William Nylander had goals, while D Oliver Ekman-Larsson also lit the lamp. Toronto has won 4 in a row and gone 7-1-0 in the past 8 outings. The Over is 3-1 across the past 4 contests, too.
For the Penguins, they suffered a 3-2 loss against the Boston Bruins Saturday afternoon as the Under (6.5) connected. LW Anthony Beauvillier had a shorthanded goal, and RW Rickard Rakell notched a power-play goal in the loss. Pittsburgh is just 1-5-0 in the past 6 games, while the Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 contests.
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Maple Leafs at Penguins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Maple Leafs -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Penguins +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
: Maple Leafs -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Penguins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125) | Penguins +1.5 (-150)
: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125) | Penguins +1.5 (-150) Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Maple Leafs at Penguins projected goalies
Joseph Woll (20-11-0, 2.63 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Joel Blomqvist (4-9-0, 3.63 GAA, .890 SV%)
After Maple Leafs G Anthony Stolarz notched a win against the Rangers Friday, stopping 33 of 35 shots, it's Woll's turn Sunday. He is confirmed to start for the first time since Feb. 23, and just the second time since Feb. 8. He went 3-1-0 with a 2.53 GAA and .921 SV% in 4 starts in February.
Blomqvist is likely to start after G Alex Nedeljkovic started Saturday's game. Blomqvist came on in relief in Thursday's 5-4 OT comeback win, stopping 22 of 23 shots to pick up the victory in relief. He went 1-2-0 with a 3.75 GAA and .851 SV% in 2 starts and 2 relief appearances in February.
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Maple Leafs at Penguins picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Penguins 3
The Maple Leafs (-190) are heavy favorites on the road, but you can't risk nearly 2 times your potential return on a standalone bet. If you were to toss Toronto into a multi-team parlay, or if you were to use an odds boost, it would be OK to back the Leafs straight up.
PASS.
The PENGUINS +1.5 (-150) are worth backing at home as underdogs on the puck line. The Pens have played five 1-goal games in the past 8 outings, with Pittsburgh going 6-3 in the past 9 on the puck line as an underdog. The Pens have won 4 of those games outright.
The Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125) have won 4 in a row, but the past 2 victories have been by only a single goal. As a favorite, Toronto is just 3-6 on the puck line in the past 9 games.
OVER 6.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games for the Maple Leafs, while the Penguins have cashed high in 4 of the past 5 contests.
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