Texas flood highlights deadly climate risk from extreme weather
As rescue crews continue their frantic search for missing children along the Guadalupe River, experts say it is just the latest warning of how rising temperatures are worsening the flood risk.
There have been increasing signs of extreme weather across the world, from more intense droughts to stronger and more intense rainstorms. These impacts have been felt profoundly with more destructive fires, intense water shortages and flooding in California as well as in many other parts of the world.
While the focus remains on frantic search for missing people in the Texas flood zone, this weekend's tragedy is already heightening discussion on shifting federal climate policy.
Read more: Death toll in central Texas flash floods nears 80 as sheriff says 11 campers remain missing
Critics fear grim consquences as the federal government slashes funding for weather forecasting, shutters climate websites and databases, lays off scientists and researchers and weakens disaster response capabilities at a moment when climate change is increasing the frequency of such events.
That includes California, where the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service, are reeling from cutbacks ordered by the Trump administration. In May, at least two California offices of the NWS said they no longer have enough staff to operate overnight: Hanford and Sacramento, which together cover nearly all of the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada mountains, some of the state's most fire-and-flood-prone areas.
Nationally, more than 600 scientists and meteorologists have already been laid off or taken a buyout from NOAA this year. The Trump administration is planning to cut thousands more employees next year — approximately 17% of its workforce — and slash the agency's budget by more than $1.5 billion, according to the fiscal 2026 budget request. The president has said the changes will help reduce federal waste and save taxpayers money.
Yet these and other changes come as human-caused climate change contributes to larger and more frequent floods, wildfires and hurricanes, among other worsening disasters. The Texas flood, in particular, was marked by the type of extremely intense, highly localized downpour that is becoming much more common due to global warming. Portions of the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in less than an hour, state officials said.
"This is one of the hardest things to predict that's becoming worse faster than almost anything else in a warming climate, and it's at a moment where we're defunding the ability of meteorologists and emergency managers to coordinate," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. "That trifecta seems like a recipe for disaster."
Indeed, just how frequently such events occur will soon become harder to tell, as the Trump administration has already eliminated NOAA's database for tracking billion-dollar disasters. Its last update before the shutdown confirmed that there were 27 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion each in the United States in 2024. In the 1980s, the nation averaged just 3.3 such events per year, adjusted for inflation, the database shows.
The administration last week shut down the U.S. Global Change Research Program's website, which housed congressionally mandated reports and research on climate change. Meanwhile, the weather service has begun halting weather balloon operations at multiple locations due to staffing shortages, reducing the amount of data that's available.
Details about the Texas incident are still unfolding. Some state officials were quick to point the finger at the National Weather Service — including Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd, who said forecasts did not adequately predict the amount of rain that fell on the area.
Agency officials said they did their job — issuing multiple warnings in advance of the incident, including some that advised of potentially catastrophic conditions. A timeline provided to The Times by the National Weather Service indicated that an expanded flood hazard outlook was issued on the morning of July 3, and that multiple, increasingly urgent alerts followed.
"The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County," agency spokesperson Erica Grow Cei said in an email, adding that the NWS "remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services."
However, the local area office was also short several key positions, including a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, the New York Times reported Sunday. Also absent was the office's warning coordination meteorologist — the person who acts as the liaison between the weather service and the public and emergency management officials — who took Trump's buyout earlier this year.
On Sunday, Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro called for an investigation into whether staffing shortages at the agency played a role, telling CNN's "State of the Union" that "not having enough personnel is never helpful."
In a statement, the White House did not address staff reductions but said no funding cuts have yet occurred at the National Weather Service.
"The timely and accurate forecasts and alerts for Texas this weekend prove that the NWS remains fully capable of carrying out its critical mission," a spokesperson from the U.S. Commerce Department, which oversees NOAA, said in an email.
Read more: Trump administration shuts down U.S. website on climate change
While the precise circumstances that surrounded the Texas tragedy will continue to be studied in the days and weeks ahead, experts say it is clear that such climate hazards will continue to happen.
"With a warmer atmosphere, there is no doubt that we have seen an increase in the frequency and the magnitude of flash flooding events globally," said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist with AccuWeather.
Porter credited the weather service with issuing warnings in advance of the flash flood, but said there was a breakdown when it came to local officials' response to the information.
"The key question is, what did people do with those warnings that were timely, that were issued?" Porter said. "What was their reaction, what was their weather safety plan, and then what actions did they take to based upon those timely warnings, in order to ensure that people's lives were saved?"
Yet even efforts to enhance coordination between the weather service, the government and the general public could soon be on the chopping block. NOAA has been researching better ways to communicate disaster warnings, including improved public education and early warning systems, at its Oceanic and Atmospheric Research division, which is facing a hefty 74% budget cut if not complete elimination.
The president's proposed 2026 budget would also reduce funding for specialized, high-resolution thunderstorm models that have been developed for just this type of event, according to Swain of UC ANR. He noted that it's an area of research that was pioneered by the U.S. government, in large part because the country has some of the most extreme thunderstorm weather in the world.
"Nearly all of the research in the world, historically, toward understanding these types of storms and predicting them has been sponsored by the U.S. federal government, and nearly all the advances we have made have been U.S. taxpayer-dollar funded," Swain said. "Other countries aren't going to do that on behalf of the U.S. ... So if we don't do it for ourselves, we aren't going to have access to that."
The Texas flood "is representative of precisely the kind of nightmare scenario that is going to become more likely with the further extreme cuts that are proposed, and likely to be implemented to some degree," he added.
Read more: 'Forecast risk': How Trump's cuts to weather experts could imperil California
Notably, the changes at NOAA and the NWS are meeting with other new priorities from the president, including a renewed investment in oil and gas drilling — fossil fuel industries that are among the top contributors to global warming.
In southeastern states such as Florida, officials are also grappling with reduced hurricane forecasting capabilities at the height of hurricane season.
And in California, where multiple wildfires are currently burning, state officials are also facing reduced firefighting capabilities as Trump deploys National Guard firefighting troops in Los Angeles and reduced forest management and firefighting staffing at the U.S. Forest Service.
The administration has also expressed interest in disbanding FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, as early as this fall.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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CBS News
17 minutes ago
- CBS News
Texas flash floods hit residents and campers with no warning. Here's what to know as the death toll climbs.
Search continues for dozens after Texas floods, at least 79 dead with more severe weather expected Flash floods in Texas killed more than 80 people over the Fourth of July holiday weekend and left others still missing, including girls attending a summer camp. The devastation along the Guadalupe River, outside of San Antonio, has drawn a massive search effort as officials face questions over their preparedness and the speed of their initial actions. Here's what to know about the deadly flooding, the colossal weather system that drove it in and around Kerr County, Texas, and ongoing efforts to identify victims. Massive rain hit at just the wrong time, in a flood-prone place The floods grew to their worst at the midpoint of a long holiday weekend when many people were asleep. The Texas Hill Country in the central part of the state is naturally prone to flash flooding due to the dry dirt-packed areas where the soil lets rain skid along the surface of the landscape instead of soaking it up. Friday's flash floods started with a particularly bad storm that dropped most of its 12 inches of rain in the dark early morning hours. After a flood watch notice midday Thursday, the National Weather Service office issued an urgent warning around 4 a.m. that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life. By at least 5:20 a.m., some in the Kerrville City area say water levels were getting alarmingly high. The massive rain flowing down hills sent rushing water into the Guadalupe River, causing it to rise 26 feet in just 45 minutes. Death toll is expected to rise as campers remain missing Gov. Greg Abbott said Sunday that there were 41 people confirmed to be unaccounted for across the state and more could be missing. In Kerr County, home to youth camps in the Texas Hill Country, searchers have found the bodies of 68 people, including 28 children, Sheriff Larry Leitha said Sunday afternoon. Fatalities in nearby counties brought the total number of deaths to 82 as of Monday morning. Ten girls and a counselor were still unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river. Three girls from Dallas — 8-year-olds Hadley Hanna and Eloise Peck and 9-year-old Lila Bonner — were identified as missing Camp Mystic campers. Bonner's family confirmed to CBS Texas on Saturday that she was among the children confirmed dead and Peck's family on Sunday posted a note at their home saying she had died as well. Two sisters from Dallas — 13-year-old Blair Harber and 11-year-old Brooke Harber — were also confirmed dead by the St. Rita Catholic Community church in Dallas. A search and rescue volunteer holds a T-shirt and backpack with the words Camp Mystic on them in Comfort, Texas on July 6, 2025. The volunteer found the belongings yesterday along the Guadalupe River near Ingram, Texas. "I hope I find the person to return their belongings, not to find closure," he said. Photo by Danielle Villasana for The Washington Post via Getty Images Camp Mystic's owner and director Dick Eastland died while trying to save girls at the camp, according to local media reports. The obituary section of the Kerrville community news site was dotted with tributes to victims, including Eastland. For past campers, the tragedy turned happy memories into grief. Beyond the Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, the number of missing from other nearby campgrounds and across the region had not been released. "We don't even want to begin to estimate at this time," Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said Saturday, citing the likely influx of visitors during the July Fourth holiday. Officials face scrutiny over flash flood warnings Survivors have described the floods as a "pitch black wall of death" and said they received no emergency warnings. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who lives along the Guadalupe River, said Saturday that "nobody saw this coming." Various officials have referred to it as a "100-year-flood," meaning that the water levels were highly unlikely based on the historical record. And records behind those statistics don't always account for human-caused climate change. Though it's hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur, meteorologists say that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and allow severe storms to dump even more rain. Additionally, officials have come under scrutiny about why residents and youth summer camps along the river were not alerted sooner than 4 a.m. or told to evacuate. Officials noted that the public can grow weary from too many flooding alerts or forecasts that turn out to be minor. Kelly said authorities were shocked by the ferocity of the floods. "We had no reason to believe that this was gonna be any, anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever," Kelly told "CBS Evening News." Kerr county officials said they had presented a proposal for a more robust flood warning system, similar to a tornado warning system, but that members of the public reeled at the cost. On Sunday, officials walked out of a news briefing after reporters asked them again about delays in alerts and evacuations. Search for victims and monumental cleanup With more rain on the way, the risk of life-threatening flooding was still high in central Texas on Monday even as crews search urgently for the missing. Volunteers, search dogs and drones have joined the effort — with some rescuers maneuvering through challenging terrain filled with snakes. U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a social media post that the U.S. Coast Guard was responsible for saving more than 200 people, as dramatic video showed Guard members conducting aerial rescues near Kerrville, while dark water covered the ground. The flash floods have erased campgrounds and torn homes from their foundations. "It's going to be a long time before we're ever able to clean it up, much less rebuild it," Kelly said Saturday after surveying the destruction from a helicopter. Other massive flooding events have driven residents and business owners to give up, including in areas struck last year by Hurricane Helene. President Donald Trump signed a major disaster declaration Sunday for Kerr County and said he would likely visit Friday: "I would have done it today, but we'd just be in their way." "It's a horrible thing that took place, absolutely horrible," he told reporters. At the Vatican, Pope Leo extended a prayer to the flooding victims during Sunday mass, saying, "I express my sincere condolences to all the families who have lost loved ones, in particular their daughters who were at summer camp, in the disaster caused by the flooding of the Guadalupe river in Texas in the United States."
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Moment entire cabin full of people swept downriver in Texas flooding
Footage shows a cabin full of people being swept down the Guadalupe River in Hill County, Texas, as deadly flash floods tore through the region, killing at least 82 people. Torrential rains struck Kerr County and neighbouring areas over the holiday weekend, trapping locals, campers, and 4 July tourists. In the video, the cabin is seen hurtling through the floodwaters in darkness, as an onlooker is heard saying: 'Oh my God, there's so many people in it.' Reports speculate the cabin belonged to the nearby Camp La Junta in Hunt. The camp posted on Facebook on Friday, 5 July, stating, 'Everyone at Camp La Junta is safe and accounted for.' More than 400 emergency responders have joined search and rescue efforts in Kerr County.
Yahoo
28 minutes ago
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Timelapse shows speed of Texas floodwaters rising over causeway
STORY: :: A timelapse shows the speed at which deadly floodwaters rose over a causeway in Texas :: Robert Ivey :: July 4, 2025 :: Kingsland, Texas :: The video recorded the scene for around 50 minutes, according to the timecode The death toll from catastrophic floods in Texas reached at least 78 on Sunday (July 6), including 28 children, as the search for girls missing from a summer camp continued and fears of more flooding prompted evacuations of volunteer responders. The flooding occurred after torrential rain fell in the central Texas area on Friday, the U.S. Independence Day holiday. The video was verified by the landscape, bridge and roadmap layout of the video, which matched satellite and street view imagery of the area. The date was verified by matching it with the timestamp on the video.