Operating cost trumps politics in commercial EV rollout

Yahoo

05-02-2025

The effort to clean up smoke-belching heavy-duty trucks and commercial vehicles has evolved over more than half a century and through 10 presidents.
Now, in the early days of the second Trump administration, efforts to roll back the nation's existing emissions regulations and green-vehicle purchase incentives, the march to reduce emissions will continue to move forward because fleet operators expect it will eventually lower their costs.
That's why there are unlikely to be many knee-jerk reactions from the fleets, truck manufacturers, engine companies and suppliers. Already, they have spent billions of dollars developing and deploying cleaner trucks and the components and infrastructure to support them.
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For example, Schneider National Inc., one of the nation's largest freight haulers, runs a fleet of 92 eCascadia electric Class 8 trucks made by Daimler's Freightliner division. Schneider built a charging depot in South El Monte, Calif., that has 16 350-kilowatt dual-cord chargers that can charge 32 eCascadias at the same time.
PepsiCo also plans to shrink its carbon footprint by adding more electric trucks and vans and expanding its charging infrastructure.
'It illustrates how sustainability is a core part of our business strategy. It's good for the planet, good for our business and good for the communities that we're in,' Adam Buttgenbach, director of fleet engineering and sustainability at PepsiCo North America, told Automotive News.
PepsiCo operates more than 1,500 EVs, including pre-production models of Tesla's electric Semi truck.
For fleet operators, or total cost of ownership, will likely determine the speed at which cleaner-running trucks displace old-school diesels.
Electrified commercial vehicles, especially those that can be recharged or refilled with hydrogen at a fleet's depot overnight and travel on pre-planned short-haul routes, can offer economic and other advantages over internal combustion engine vehicles.
'Commercial vehicle customers are much more focused on the total cost of ownership,' said Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of market research at Telemetry, a marketing and research firm.
Fleets track fuel costs, maintenance costs, time lost to maintenance and repairs and look at what costs the least, he said.
'In most cases, they are still paying more upfront for clean or electrified vehicles, but the other advantages outweigh acquisition cost premiums,' Abuelsamid said.
Startup EV manufacturers that counted on the generous federal incentives of the Biden era are the most concerned about Trump administration policy changes.
Bollinger Motors, which began shipping its Class 4 electric chassis cab late last fall, is paying close attention. Bollinger vehicles qualify for up to $40,000 in federal incentives, a key selling point.
'Rescinding of the federal tax incentive would present a challenge for the entire commercial EV category, but it is too early to tell how this would impact our sales,' Jim Connelly, Bollinger's chief revenue officer, told Automotive News in an email.
He said state-based purchase incentives might help fill any gap created by federal policy changes.
Its B4 truck have a suggested price of $158,758 before incentives. A B4 sold in California is eligible for $100,000 in federal and state incentives. Local incentives can chip even more off the B4's purchase price.
One of the weakest startups, Canoo, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy Jan. 17.
Cash-short Nikola, a Class 8 zero-emission truckmaker, said on Jan. 23 that it is exploring options that include selling the entire company. Nikola had less than $200 million as of last September, Reuters reported, and has been struggling to raise funds. The company said it doesn't have enough cash to make it through the first quarter.
The 2027 emissions standards, finalized in 2022, require nitrogen oxides to be reduced by more than 80 percent. The EPA has determined the useful life of a commercial truck is 650,000 miles, up from 435,000 miles. Manufacturers must warranty the emissions system for that standard. So far, Trump has not reversed those rules. But his administration has already taken the first steps to loosen emissions regulations for passenger vehicles. Commercial vehicle emissions standards could be next.
Because companies such as Kenworth, Cummins, Shyft Group, JB Poindexter & Co. and others have invested billions on green technologies for fleets, it isn't likely that the end of incentives or rescinding the 2027 emissions regulations will cause much disruption to product rollouts, Abuelsamid said.
Kenworth, for example, has worked with Toyota for more than seven years testing and refining hydrogen fuel cell technology for Class 8 trucks. The company recently opened its order books for the T680, which uses a Toyota fuel cell stack. It can haul 41 tons of cargo more than 400 miles without emitting any harmful emissions. The company is also charging ahead with it plans for cleaner 2027 models.
'Customers will continue to demand the best and most efficient engines to meet sustainability requirements so the need for cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles will not go away,' Noelle Parlier, Kenworth director of product planning and strategy, said in an email.
Manufacturers are building green trucks of all sizes.
Shyft Group began delivering its Blue Arc electric Class 4 delivery vans in late December. The walk-in vans can haul more than two tons of cargo 200 miles on a charge. And Freightliner is building its eCascadia Class 8 electric truck that can haul 82,000 pounds of cargo as far as 300cq miles on a charge
Cummins has spent more than $1 billion developing a new line of HELM fuel-agnostic inline six-cylinder engines that can run on hydrogen, natural gas or diesel. HELM stands for Higher Efficiency Lower emissions Multiple fuels.
The uncertainty around emissions regulations and incentives hasn't tamped down fleet operators' interest in green commercial vehicles.
Around 8,000 attendees are expected at this year's Advanced Clean Technology Expo, scheduled for April 28 to May 2 in Anaheim, Calif. The show has booked more than 450 manufacturers and suppliers and at least 200 vehicles will be displayed. The ACT Expo is one of the nation's largest shows for fleet operators.
Relaxing of diesel emissions standards and eliminating incentives might prolong the life of some diesel-powered fleets, but it won't put the brakes on electrifying the nation's work trucks, Abuelsamid said.
'There are a lot of use cases that are ideal for electrification,' he said. 'For trash trucks, one of the challenges is residential pickups. You can't go through neighborhoods at 3 a.m. with a diesel truck. It's too noisy. With an electric trash truck you can run those routes in the middle of the night.'
PepsiCo is mining the data gleaned from the millions of miles traveled by its EV fleet to wring out further efficiencies.
'Understanding how our field operates and how our supply chain works, getting the vehicles in the hands of our employees and having them understand them and how they fit into the business has really helped improve adoption,' Buttgenbach said. 'Now, instead of this being just a push of electric vehicles into our fleet, it's a pull from the field.'