
Proposed Canada-US trade deal could still be weeks away, says Ottawa
Ottawa's chief negotiator suggests a U.S.-Canada trade deal remains weeks away, despite Trump's imposition of higher tariffs on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Carney insists on resetting bilateral relations, but negotiations have yielded little progress, with crucial sectors like steel and automobiles affected. Canada seeks a beneficial deal, while the U.S. cites concerns over fentanyl smuggling and trade barriers.
ANI Carney with Trump A proposed U.S.-Canada trade deal could still be weeks away, Ottawa's chief negotiator said on Friday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from Canada. Trump - who had set an August 1 deadline for an agreement - signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% on all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Prime Minister Mark Carney insisted on the talks to reset bilateral relations, saying Trump's tariffs have upended decades-old trading and security ties. The negotiations, though, have so far produced little. Although over 90% of Canadian exports enter the United States without duties, the tariffs apply to crucial sectors such as steel, aluminum and automobiles. Federal cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc, in charge of U.S. trade relations, said Canada had always made clear it would only accept a good deal.
"At the end of business yesterday that agreement was not yet in sight ... there remain sectors the Americans are targeting which are essential for the Canadian economy," he told public broadcaster Radio-Canada. "Over the coming weeks we will ... continue talks with the Americans in an attempt to find a deal that would put us in a better position." Separately, LeBlanc told reporters in Washington that he would speak to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick next week and hoped to meet him in August. "The doors aren't closed, the doors are open, the conversations are ongoing," he said. The White House cited what it said was Canada's failure to stop fentanyl smuggling and address U.S. concerns about trade barriers. Washington is also unhappy about Canada's refusal to drop its own countermeasures, which were first imposed by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He resigned in March to be replaced by Carney, who won an April election promising to stand up to Trump. In June, Carney had threatened to ramp up counter tariffs in July unless there was progress on the deal. A statement he issued on Friday did not mention retaliation. Brian Clow, who was in charge of U.S. relations inside Trudeau's office for several years, noted Trump had announced deals with nations that declined to impose counter tariffs. "Unfortunately, Canada stands on its own right now, along with China, because many other countries ... refused to stand up to this President," he said by phone. "So I'm not sure that further retaliation is the way to go." Carney's talk about standing up to Trump cannot hide the divisions between those advocating for a hard line and those who worry about the potential economic damage. Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada lobby group, said Canada was struggling at the talks and urged a new approach. "As someone said to me, Canada is playing chess, but there's nobody playing chess with it at the other end," he said. "We've got to make sure that we are thinking through: 'What have we been doing and what do we need to do?'," he told CBC News. "We've got to move with greater urgency, because our own economy is very fragile."

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While Trump imposes high tariffs, India dramatically increases energy imports from US
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U.S. penalty risk on Russian oil may add $9-11 billion to India's import bill, analyst say
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The twin strategy of Indian oil companies is posting record profits. This is, however, now under threat after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods plus an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and weapons. The 25% tariff has since been notified, but the penalty is yet to be specified. Coming within days of the European Union banning imports of refined products derived from Russian-origin crude, this presents a double whammy for Indian refiners. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, termed this as "a squeeze from both ends". EU sanctions — effective from January 2026 — may force Indian refiners to segment crude intake on one side, and on the other, the U.S. tariff threat raises the possibility of secondary sanctions that would directly hit the shipping, insurance, and financing lifelines underpinning India's Russian oil trade. "Together, these measures sharply curtail India's crude procurement flexibility, raise compliance risk, and introduce significant cost uncertainty," he said. Last fiscal, India spent over $137 billion on import of crude oil, which is refined into fuels like petrol and diesel. For refiners like Reliance Industries Ltd and Nayara Energy — who collectively account for a bulk (more than 50% in 2025) of the 1.7–2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude imports into India - the challenge is acute. While Nayara is backed by Russian oil giant Rosneft and was sanctioned by the EU last month, Reliance has been a big fuel exporter to Europe. As one of the world's largest diesel exporters — and with total refined product exports to Europe averaging around 200,000 bpd in 2024 and 185,000 bpd so far in 2025 — Reliance has extensively utilised discounted Russian crude to boost refining margins over the past two years, according to Kpler. "The introduction of strict origin-tracking requirements now compels Reliance to either curtail its intake of Russian feedstock, potentially affecting cost competitiveness, or reroute Russian-linked products to non-EU markets," Mr. Ritolia said. However, Reliance's dual-refinery structure — a domestic-focused unit and an export-oriented complex — offers strategic flexibility. It can allocate non-Russian crude to its export-oriented refinery and continue meeting EU compliance standards, while processing Russian barrels at the domestic unit for other markets. Although redirecting diesel exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, or Latin America is operationally feasible, such a shift would involve narrower margins, longer voyage times, and increased demand variability, making it commercially less optimal, he said. 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Refiners will face higher feedstock costs, and in the case of complex units optimized for (Russian) Urals-like blends, even margins will be under pressure," he said. In the future course, Kpler believes India's complex private refiners — backed by robust trading arms and flexible configurations — are expected to pivot toward non-Russian barrels from the Middle East, West Africa, Latin America, or even the U.S., where economics permits. This shift, while operationally feasible, will be gradual and strategically aligned with evolving regulatory frameworks, contract structures, and margin dynamics. However, replacing Russian barrels in full is no easy feat — logistically daunting, economically painful, and geopolitically fraught. Supply substitution may be feasible on paper, but remains fraught in practice. "Financially, the implications are massive. Assuming a $5 per barrel discount lost across 1.8 million bpd, India could see its import bill swell by $9–11 billion annually. If global flat prices rise further due to reduced Russian availability, the cost could be higher," it said. This would increase fiscal strain, particularly if the government steps in to stabilize retail fuel prices. The cascading impact on inflation, currency, and monetary policy would be difficult to ignore.


Mint
9 minutes ago
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