50% Tariffs Are About Punishment, Not Trade
The global copper industry saw President Donald Trump's proposed 50% tariffs from a mile away. As early as February, he mooted the idea on national security grounds. That day of reckoning is fast approaching, barring a TACO U-turn, and the way the copper market is dealing with the issue — including a bizarre race to make deliveries to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to beat levies — has pointers for Brazil, hit with only a 10% overall levy three months ago, but now singled out for 50%:
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Brazil chooses local relief over retaliation for US tariffs, sources say
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi isn't backing down. Days after President Donald Trump slapped a surprise 25% tariff on Indian exports and warned of more action over India's oil ties with Russia, Modi doubled down on his buy local message. He urged citizens to prioritize Indian-made goods, while sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that New Delhi hasn't ordered refiners to stop buying Russian crude. Instead, refinersboth public and privateare still choosing suppliers based on commercial logic. The backdrop: Trump is ramping up pressure on India for its energy and diplomatic relationship with Moscow, just as global markets remain uneasy over war financing and shifting trade alliances. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 9 Warning Signs with GS. The rhetoric is heating up fast. Trump's team has accused India of cheating the US on trade and immigration, and signaled that all options are on the table to respond to its Russian oil purchases. But while the public messaging may sound tough, India isn't giving up much. Officials said US trade talks are still on, but they won't open up politically sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy. And recent dealslike the one India just signed with the UKsuggest that Modi's government is moving at its own pace, carefully protecting domestic interests even while staying at the negotiating table. The pushback highlights how India, now the world's fastest-growing large economy, is becoming less willing to compromise under outside pressure. Despite the rising tension, markets aren't panicking. Indian equities climbed on Monday, while the rupee and government bonds also strengthened. The boost came after oil prices dropped sharplythanks to OPEC+ signaling it could raise output in Septemberwhich is a major win for India, a net fuel importer. While Indian refiners are preparing fallback plans in case Russian crude becomes unavailable, there's no sign of a near-term disruption. India is signaling it may not easily yield to pressure, even from a key partner. For global investors watching this unfoldincluding those with exposure to geopolitical-sensitive names like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)India's balancing act between Washington and Moscow could become a defining theme for emerging market strategy in the months ahead. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
