South Africa Central Bank Says Uncertainty Risks Higher Rates
'Confidence around the medium-term outlook has reduced significantly due to heightened global trade tensions and elevated domestic uncertainties,' the central bank said in its semi-annual Monetary Policy Review published Tuesday in Johannesburg. 'Although policy rates are expected to decline further in major economies, the new risks that have emerged suggest they will remain higher for longer.'
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Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
I Asked ChatGPT To Explain Trump's ‘Big Beautiful Bill' To Me Like I'm 12 — Here's What It Said
I'm no stranger to sweeping legislation. I have 30 years of combined experience covering politics and state government, advocating for healthcare and education nonprofits, and negotiating policy from both sides of the table. Discover More: Try This: However, when President Donald Trump unveiled his 'Big Beautiful Bill,' even I had to pause. What exactly is in it? What's at stake for everyday people now and in the future? I asked ChatGPT to cut through the noise and condense sprawling policy documents to provide me with a clear, emotionally neutral summary. In other words, I asked ChatGPT to explain it in a way that I would understand, as if I were a 12-year-old. Here's what it said. It's All In the Branding There's no official legislation called the 'Big Beautiful Bill.' According to ChatGPT, it's a branding phrase Trump used to signal his agenda. It includes tax cuts, deep rollbacks, and restructuring of social safety nets, carrying significant implications for energy, education, and public debt. Read Now: What Does It Mean for Average Americans? One of my first questions while reviewing any public policy, including Trump's budget bill, is how it would affect regular citizens. Same with ChatGPT. I asked how Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' would affect average Americans. It said that workers could see slightly larger paychecks if payroll taxes are reduced. However, there's a catch. 'Those same payroll taxes fund programs like Social Security and Medicare, and without a replacement funding mechanism, the long-term stability of those benefits could be in jeopardy,' ChatGPT said. 'We've seen versions of this play out before: short-term relief, long-term risk.' Healthcare on the Chopping Block For those who rely on the Affordable Care Act, it could bring significant disruption. According to ChatGPT, 'Trump has repeatedly signaled interest in dismantling parts of the ACA. That could mean higher premiums, fewer protections for people with preexisting conditions, and a market-wide ripple effect for anyone who buys insurance independently or through the exchanges.' While the bill doesn't eliminate the ACA outright, it lays the groundwork for targeted rollbacks that could weaken coverage and affordability. For millions of Americans, especially gig workers, freelancers, and early retirees, this isn't just a policy; it's a potential threat to their health and finances. Student Debt Relief Could Disappear Tucked into the Big Beautiful Bill are provisions that would unwind key aspects of the Biden administration's student debt relief efforts. While not framed explicitly as an attack on borrowers, the bill signals a sharp policy reversal, one that could shut down or restrict forgiveness programs and income-driven repayment options. According to ChatGPT, 'If you have student loans or are counting on forgiveness programs, they could disappear overnight. The bill includes a rollback of debt relief efforts and the potential return of higher interest rates for federal loans. And if you're a parent planning for college, the financial aid landscape could shift beneath your feet.' Social Security Is Fine Until It Isn't While the Big Beautiful Bill doesn't explicitly cut Social Security, its structural changes to payroll taxes and entitlement spending raise serious questions about long-term funding. By lowering or eliminating certain employer-employee tax obligations, the bill could weaken the primary revenue stream that supports Social Security's solvency. ChatGPT explained: 'Reducing payroll taxes without a clear replacement funding mechanism puts pressure on programs like Social Security and Medicare. Even if benefits aren't cut immediately, the financial sustainability of those programs becomes more fragile.' For retirees and future beneficiaries alike, this isn't just theoretical. A weakened Social Security trust fund could lead to delayed payments, reduced benefits, or increased retirement age, all of which disproportionately affect low-income earners and workers with physically demanding jobs. The Real Power Play From an AI and systems-thinking perspective, the 'Big Beautiful Bill' revealed something deeper: it's not just about the policies; it's about who benefits from speed and opacity. According to ChatGPT: 'Wealthy donors and corporate lobbyists can plan for these changes before they hit. They have access, leverage, and legal teams. The average worker? They're just trying to make rent and keep the lights on.' With a degree of self-awareness, ChatGPT said. 'While AI can help decode the structure, it can't shield anyone from the real-world consequences. That's why clarity, accountability, and deliberate scrutiny still matter. Because in a system where speed favors power, the rest of us need time to see clearly, before the ground shifts beneath our feet.' More From GOBankingRates Clever Ways To Save Money That Actually Work in 2025 This article originally appeared on I Asked ChatGPT To Explain Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' To Me Like I'm 12 — Here's What It Said
Politico
22 minutes ago
- Politico
How the 2017 Trump tax cuts made the ‘big, beautiful bill' so expensive
Congressional Republicans really like the 2017 Trump tax cuts. It's why the 'big, beautiful bill' costs so much. The decision to either extend those cuts or make them permanent before their year-end expiration date was the driving force behind the original, $2.4 trillion price tag of the House-passed megabill. Then the Senate GOP went even further, deepening the financial impact of the vast domestic policy package. That exacerbated the string of intraparty fights that consumed Republicans for weeks. Even as different factions squared off over issues such as slashing Medicaid — hundreds of billions here, tens of billions there — the extension of the 2017 tax cuts had already set the table. In the end, the Senate added another $1 trillion to the price tag. Detailed final estimates from Congress' scorekeeper haven't yet been released, but the overall picture is clear: The cost of President Donald Trump's signature tax and spending legislation was inflated by the desire to extend the tax cuts from his first administration. Other political fights shifted the price tag from there, but there was not much the staunchest deficit hawks could do but chip away at the margins. 'This was going to be a fiscal challenge from the start, because of how expensive it is to extend [the 2017 cuts],' said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center. Here's how the bill's cost ballooned, starting with its initial cost: $2.4 trillion added to the federal deficit over 10 years.
CNN
22 minutes ago
- CNN
Talk about no taxes on tips, less about Medicaid cuts: How GOP is trying to sell Trump's landmark law
The White House just spent six months jamming a massive legislative package through Congress with almost no margin for error. Now comes the real challenge. Donald Trump's aides and allies are embarking on a concerted bid to sell the president's 'big, beautiful bill' to voters who are mostly unfamiliar with its specifics and skeptical of what little they have heard about the administration's central domestic accomplishment. The yearlong mission — relying in part on dispatching top Trump officials across the country to highlight the bill's economic benefits — is seen as critical to preserving GOP control of Congress in next November's elections, according to interviews with more than half a dozen White House aides, allies and Republican lawmakers. And for a White House that's cast Trump's agenda as a financial boon for Americans, the midterms represent a high-stakes referendum that could determine the course of his final years in office. 'It comes down to whether people feel like they're doing better and have more money in their pockets,' said one Trump political adviser. 'And if they don't think the economy's going well, then we've got a problem.' Republicans will have several months to make headway with voters before the midterm season heats up, after lawmakers passed nearly the entirety of Trump's domestic agenda in a single multitrillion-dollar package just ahead of the White House's self-imposed July 4 deadline. But the urgency behind an extended campaign for the bill underscores how little time the GOP had to explain what was actually in the package before passing it — and signals a recognition of the steep uphill battle the party now faces in selling it after the fact. What Americans did learn about the bill amid the rushed process was largely negative, polling has shown. Perhaps most alarming for Trump and Republicans, party operatives said, is that many voters remain concerned that rather than juicing the economy as the president promised, a package that includes deep cuts to Medicaid and food assistance might end up leaving them worse off overall. 'I'm not sure anybody completely understands what's in it, including most of the people who voted for it,' said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. 'But there are a lot of provisions in it that will be challenging to sell to many of the Trump voters who live in small-town and rural areas, a great many of whom are on Medicaid.' White House officials and their allies have coalesced behind a plan to bolster enthusiasm for the sprawling bill by focusing mainly on the narrow slice of policies that have proved most popular — such as provisions eliminating taxes on tips and on overtime pay, according to GOP lawmakers and campaign officials. Republican leadership has also encouraged lawmakers to tailor their messaging on Trump's agenda to their specific constituencies' priorities. 'Energy states are going to talk about the things that are going to really help us build our energy dominance; border states, probably more about border security,' said Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota. 'You've got all those general concepts that are important, and then how you present it is going to be a function of what you work on as a member and what's really important in your state.' That strategy is aimed primarily at reframing voters' view of what Republican lawmakers privately acknowledge is an unwieldy and vaguely named bill, while also allowing them to paper over more unpopular elements such as the hundreds of billions of projected cuts to health care spending needed to help pay for the array of tax breaks. Democrats have seized on those Medicaid cuts, betting that the backlash will propel them back into power next year. Within GOP circles, strategists plotting out the next several months are operating under the theory that if they can simply contain the damage done to the party on health care issues, they'll be able to press advantages elsewhere. 'As long as we level the playing field on the Medicaid aspect, we can talk about tax cuts and border security all day,' said one Republican campaign official. 'It's something we think about every day: What is the narrative of this cycle?' In eastern Pennsylvania on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance offered an early look at how Trump officials will try to execute on the strategy in forthcoming trips to key districts, touting the bill's tax breaks and energy policies in a state where the coal and gas industry plays a major role. He made no mention of Medicaid and the broader health provisions expected to eliminate coverage for nearly 12 million people over a decade, instead urging attendees to talk up the bill's benefits in their own communities. 'Go and talk to your neighbors, go and talk to your friends about what this bill does for American citizens,' Vance said. The White House is still finalizing which Cabinet officials to send where to promote the bill over the next several months. In a statement, White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson called the bill 'an encapsulation of the campaign promises that the American people elected President Trump to enact.' 'The Trump administration plans to communicate the massive achievements in the One Big Beautiful Bill at every opportunity,' she said. Still, there are lingering doubts across the GOP about how quickly the White House and Republican lawmakers can turn around public opinion — and whether enough voters will feel enough of the benefits in time to salvage their congressional majorities. The bill's passage further widened an advantage Democrats hold over Republicans over which party's base is more energized to vote, CNN polling released last week shows. The GOP has so far made little progress toward countering Democratic attacks over Medicaid cuts as well, even as Republicans point to data showing the specific policies in the bill imposing work requirements and restricting eligibility have majority support. And while Republicans believe they will eventually find their footing, much of their fate may depend on whether Trump and his GOP allies can stay focused on promoting the bill for more than a year. In the weeks since July 4, Trump's heightened attacks on the Federal Reserve chair and his administration's botched handling of promised Jeffrey Epstein disclosures have created days of news cycles that distracted from the administration's core agenda. 'The sales job is important, and when the administration then gets in its own way with things that are going to garner a lot of media attention — let's say, Jeffrey Epstein, for instance — that impacts that,' said Doug Heye, a longtime Republican strategist. The White House in the coming weeks is likely to face another decision point that could alter Republicans' trajectory ahead of the midterms: Whether to push Congress to pass new legislation enacting even more spending cuts, and potentially even pursue a second major policy bill at some point next year. The prospect has animated budget hawks in the White House and on Capitol Hill eager to further shrink federal spending. But others are wary of the political fallout of slashing more from popular programs after congressional Republicans just passed a $9 billion cuts package taking aim at PBS and NPR. And with little GOP consensus on what policies the party should pursue next, some Republicans say focusing on how to sell their one 'big, beautiful bill' is challenge enough for the coming year. 'Given the fact this bill is enormous,' Ayres said, 'I don't know that you really need much of anything else to try to explain.'
