Sweden's Arctic Railway Prepares for a More Militarized Future
There had been another accident in the area, the second in less than three months. It would be almost two weeks before trains could resume their travel along Malmbanan, or the Iron Ore Line, between the world's biggest underground iron ore mine and the export port on the coast of Norway. Her first thoughts were of sabotage.
'Could an outsider be involved?' the LKAB logistics boss wondered. 'It was an uncomfortable possibility, given the way the world looks today.'
That turned out to be a red herring — the accident had been caused by harsh winter weather. But Bjurholt had good reason to suspect otherwise. The war in Ukraine was then entering its third year, and with Finland a new NATO member and Sweden close to becoming one, relations between Russia and the Nordic countries were strained. Since then, the situation has only gotten more tense, and the 500-kilometer-long (310 mile) Malmbanan line remains a prime target.
For nearly 150 years, Malmbanan trains have hauled iron ore, the main component in steel, across the barren, mountainous landscape of Sweden's far north. The state-owned line supplied German steelmakers during the Second World War, and LKAB's iron ore now accounts for about 80% of the European Union's output, going into tanks, guns and other military equipment the bloc is racing to produce. Should Finland's more than 1,300-kilometer-long border with Russia ever become an active front, the track would also be one of the best ways for NATO to transport vehicles and supplies. Kiruna, the town that's home to the iron ore mine, is little more than 540 kilometers away from the Russian military hub of Murmansk.
While war is not seen as imminent, it is a possibility that leaders are actively preparing for. Since Sweden became NATO's newest member in March 2024, the number of suspected hybrid attacks on the country's critical infrastructure has risen. Its banking services and a public broadcaster have been subjected to cyberattacks, water facilities have been mysteriously damaged and police are investigating incidents of suspected sabotage against about 30 cell phone towers in the east of the country.
'Sweden is not at war,' Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said at a security conference in January, referring to the situation. 'But there is no peace, either.'
Speaking in The Hague last week, Sweden's Foreign Affairs Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said that Russia has singled out the Arctic region as its 'second-most important foreign policy priority' after the post-Soviet states. In recent years, she added, 'we've also seen how both the number and extent of the Russian military activities in the Arctic have increased.'
While Sweden's Security Service declined to comment specifically on Malmbanan, it released a report in March that underscored the threats facing the country's critical infrastructure. LKAB also abstained from discussing the railway's security in any detail, simply calling it a 'big priority.'
As NATO and Sweden ramp up military activity in the north, demands on the transit network will increase, said Magnus Stahl, Colonel and Commander of Sweden's Northern Military Region.
'Malmbanan is incredibly important for Sweden,' he said during an interview in the garrison town of Boden. But, he warned, 'it's very easy to damage infrastructure like a railway or a bridge.'
Connecting this infrastructure to other parts of the region presents another challenge. Because Finland was part of the Russian empire when its railways were built, its gauge is about 90 millimeters wider than Sweden's, meaning trains can't seamlessly travel between countries like in most parts of Europe.
A study recently estimated that replacing the tracks between the Swedish border and the towns of Oulu and Rovaniemi alone would cost about €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion). To address the issue, the Finnish government said last month that it may end up building new lines with narrower track gauges alongside existing ones, and in some places, interlacing the two.
In the meantime, Malmbanan is in dire need of upgrades. After decades of underinvestment, demand for space on the line is outstripping availability. LKAB runs about 14 return trips a day, and other companies also use the railway to ship goods and offer passenger services. Sweden's Minister for Infrastructure and Housing, Andreas Carlson, described Malmbanan in an email interview as the most 'congested train line in the country.' With only one track, any accident or unexpected problem could shut down the entire system — as happened in December 2023, February 2024 and again just a few weeks ago.
Albin Enbacke, one of LKAB's roughly 100 drivers, is used to delays. Some are caused by run-of-the-mill problems like track obstructions and gear failures, others by avalanches and traffic jams. He now shows up for shifts with yogurt or nuts, or anything he can cook on the hotplate in the driver's cabin. 'You need to bring some emergency food. You never know if there will be a stop and you'll get stuck.'
Bolstering Malmbanan's capacity and long-term resilience is not only a Swedish priority. Bane Nor, the operator on the Norwegian side of the border, expects a 43% increase in traffic over the next 20 years and has already allocated 2.6 billion Norwegian kroner ($260 million) to upgrades.
In Sweden, more than two dozen renovation and improvement projects are underway or slated to start in the next few years, according to the website of Sweden's Transport Administration, including ones to replace aging rails and install new signaling systems. Tracks will also be reinforced to accommodate heavier trains, Carlson said, and there are plans to install double tracks between Boden and Lulea. While LKAB has been pushing for double tracks along the entire length of the line, an early estimate from the Transport Administration suggests that this could take as much as €11 billion and up to three decades to plan and complete.
As a project leader at the agency, Joran Gartner spends his days finding ways to implement fixes that will ease pressure on the system.
During a recent visit to a site near Boden, Gartner pointed at three tracks that ran parallel to each other for several hundred meters. In the past, that was enough room for iron-ore trains to pass each other safely. But as the length of trains have expanded over the years, that's no longer the case.
Once his latest upgrades are finished — including the construction of a roughly one kilometer-long track where trains can meet oncoming traffic — additional capacity will open up. Still, he cautioned, the system will remain vulnerable to disturbances and delays.
'These measures,' he said, 'are just about providing life support.'
--With assistance from Kari Lundgren, Charlie Duxbury and Jade Khatib.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
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