California dreamin' or ‘CalExit'? Secession movement rises again amid GOP ‘hate'
For the third time, supporters of what's known as 'CalExit' are attempting to get a measure on the ballot that asks California voters a once unthinkable question: Should the state secede from the United States and become its own nation?
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The question has failed twice before, but movement leader Marcus Ruiz Evans has managed to shepherd the initiative to the signature-collection phase. And he says he believes the third time might be the charm.
His reasoning? The current presidential administration and American Republicans 'hate' California.
'Republicans now hate us in California more than ever. The hate was palpable in 2016. But now it's palpable and focused,' Evans told the San Francisco Standard. Between the state's severe political divide with the current administration and President Trump's response to the devastating wildfires in January, Evans says Californians are fed up.
So, as Billy Joel rues in his eponymous song, is it really time for America to 'say goodbye to Hollywood'?
Secession appears highly unlikely. The legal and political hurdles would be immense. But does that mean CalExit has no shot at all?
Secession attempts have happened before — the most famous being the Confederate States during the Civil War and Texas's bid to break away, both in the 1800s. Both were declared illegal.
Still, while the idea sounds extreme, 61% of Californians say the state would actually be 'better off' if it seceded peacefully, according to the January 2025 Independent California Poll from YouGov. At the same time, 62% of respondents said they didn't think a peaceful and legal break-up would be possible.
The California Constitution says the state 'is an inseparable part of the United States of America' and affirms that the U.S. Constitution is the supreme law of the land. Notably, the U.S. Constitution neither grants nor explicitly prohibits states from seceding — an omission that has fueled debates since the 19th century over whether secession is an inherent state right.
Evans faces an uphill battle to get the question on the 2028 ballot. He needs at least 545,000 valid signatures by July. Even if he gets them, bigger hurdles await: If 55% of voters approve the initiative, a commission would be formed to analyze whether California could function as an independent nation.
Key questions for the commission:
Could it govern itself?
Could it sustain its own economy?
Even if the commission said yes, the debate wouldn't end there. The federal government isn't obligated to honor the results or recommendations. A legitimate path to secession would likely require a constitutional amendment — meaning approval by Congress and 38 states.
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Let's say the Golden State clears all the voting hurdles, survives a constitutional change and legally declares itself independent. Could it sustain itself?
Consider California's economic might: its $3.9 trillion GDP in 2023 places it among the top five economies in the world. The state is home to global tech giants like Apple and Google, vast agricultural operations and it's chock full of more Fortune 500 companies than any other US state.
On top of all that, California controls the entire Pacific coastline, giving it access to vital trading ports. And, of course, there's the entertainment behemoth that is Hollywood.
Still, the state would face major adjustments. It would need to establish new trade agreements and tariffs to keep global imports and exports flowing. Businesses might experience supply chain disruptions and the loss of federal subsidies. (Would President Trump slap tariffs on a newly seceded California?)
The state would have to establish its own military, build new diplomatic ties and govern a population of 39 million people speaking hundreds of languages and practicing religions and cultural traditions.
A new California Republic is unlikely — but the idea is clearly on many people's minds. Is it more than just California Dreaming? Time will tell.
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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
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