Tiger Lefty Tarik Skubal Once Again In Control Of AL Cy Young Race

Forbes

13 hours ago

We're over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it's time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The current AL leader is last year's winner, and he has built a significant if not quite insurmountable lead.
If you're new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It's a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they 'should have' allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That's expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher's 'Tru' ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their 'Tru' Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
There are no real sleepers outside the Top Ten at this point - even the contenders for down-ballot positions have fairly entrenched themselves at this point. Let's get right to it.
Astro lefty Framber Valdez (9.6 'Tru' Pitching Runs Above Average) is once again riding his tried and true grounder-centric approach to solid results. His 0.9 degree average launch angle allowed is the second lowest among AL ERA qualifiers. He's been somewhat fortunate across all batted ball types, and his 84 'Tru'- is higher than his 65 ERA- and 69 FIP- as a result. Yankee lefty Carlos Rodon (11.7 TPRAA) owes his success more to a very high K rate than to his command or contact management ability, as usual. His 80 'Tru'- is more in line with his 79 ERA- than his 90 FIP-. Royal lefty Kris Bubic (12.6 TPRAA) is injured and out for the season, and will not be in the Cy picture at season's end. He's an ERA qualifier for now, however, and deserves his roses. In fact, he is the current AL Contact Manager of the Year - his 83.1 Adjusted Contact Score noses out #5 below.
The Mariners have seen starter after starter go down with injuries this season, but Bryan Woo (14.4 TPRAA) has been a quiet constant. Only three AL ERA qualifiers have allowed a lower average liner exit speed than his 91.8 mph. His stellar K/BB profile is another big asset. Woo's 76 'Tru'- is better than his 82 ERA- and 95 FIP-. Hopefully, Ranger righty Jacob deGrom (14.5 TPRAA) is on his way to his first fully healthy season in a good while. He's not quite as overwhelming as he once was, but his bat-missing, command and contact management performances all remain above average.
#5 - LHP Max Fried (Yankees) - 15.7 TPRAA, 74 'Tru'-, 65 ERA-, 72 FIP-
The Yankees' prized offseason free agent acquisition has been as advertised this season. He's one of the AL's premier grounder generators, and throttles authority across all batted ball types. He's the favorite to cop AL Contact Manager of the Year honors - through July 31, he was fractionally behind Bubic with an 83.2 Adjusted Contact Score. He has emerged as the Yankee ace, and while he lacks the ceiling of the pitchers below, his floor is exceedingly high.
#4 - RHP Hunter Brown (Astros) - 17.3 TPRAA, 69 'Tru'-, 63 ERA-, 72 FIP-
I've been waiting for this breakthrough for a while now, and it's been fun to watch. Brown is above average in all facets of pitching, and likely still has a bit more durability ceiling to explore. His 86.4 mph overall average exit speed allowed is third best among AL ERA qualifiers. He's without weakness, as his bat-missing, command and contact management skills are comfortably above average, and he still has a bit more upside.
#3 - RHP Joe Ryan (Twins) - 18.0 TPRAA, 67 'Tru'-, 69 ERA-, 76 FIP-
The Twins traded just about everything that wasn't nailed down at the deadline, but wisely held onto Ryan. He's never quite qualified for an ERA title, falling barely short multiple times. Hopefully he runs through the tape this time. He gets it done differently than all of the hurlers previously discussed - he's a big pop up guy, and his 18.5 degree average launch angle allowed is easily the highest of anyone we'll discuss today. FIP knocks him for the flyballs he allows, but shouldn't, as they aren't hit very hard (88 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score).
#2 - LHP Garrett Crochet (White Sox) - 20.4 TPRAA, 68 'Tru'-, 52 ERA-, 60 FIP-
Crochet's 'Tru'- is higher than both his ERA- and FIP- at present, but is still pretty darned good. He's settled in as a true ace after the Red Sox paid a huge prospect cost to bring him aboard in the offseason. Perhaps most impressive of all has been his durability - he currently leads the AL in innings pitched despite a significant injury history and relative lack of experience. He's a lot like Brown, but a little better across the board - and gets a premium for being lefthanded.
#1 - LHP Tarik Skubal (Tigers) - 28,3 TPRAA, 53 'Tru'-, 52 ERA-, 46 FIP-
The identity of the current alpha male starting pitcher in the AL is pretty clear, Skubal's K/BB profile is without peer, and he's consistently improved his contact management performance through his career - he has an 85 Adjusted Contact Score through July 31. His 85.7 mph average exit speed allowed is best among ERA qualifiers, and his 88.4 mph average fly ball exit speed allowed is 2nd best, behind only Brown. His 'Tru'- is a bit above his ERA- and FIP-, but still comfortably paces the junior circuit.
Skubal (5.4 WAR) and Crochet (4.5) also pace AL starters in WAR through July 31.