Every SEC football strength of schedule ranked by opponents betting market win totals

USA Today

a day ago

As teams compete for seeding and spots in the College Football Playoff, the strength-of-schedule drum gets beaten like a dead horse. It's important to remember rule No. 1 when discussing strength-of-schedule: Your favorite team has faced a gauntlet while everybody else played cupcakes all year.
The SOS debate in college football is a unique one. With only 12 regular-season games, the sample size is small. The NFL sample size is small, too, but the playoff structure is independent of human debate. In college basketball, strength-of-schedule plays a large role in the NCAA Tournament invites, but it's easier to separate teams when they play 30+ games.
In college football, you get 12 games to prove it.
Today, we'll look at SEC conference schedules ranked by opposing win totals. No better number is better at distilling preseason expectations and quality than the betting market win total, making it a good way to evaluate expected strength-of-schedule.
With the SEC at 16 teams, there's more SOS discrepancy than we had in the past. Here's how the conference schedules stack up for the 2025 College football season.
16. Texas Longhorns
Average Opponent Win Total: 6.22
Texas's entire schedule isn't a breeze because the Longhorns open the year at Ohio State, but Texas has a manageable conference slate. Texas plays at Georgia, but gets to face Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. The Longhorns also get a bye before the Athens trip. Texas will face Texas A&M in the comfort of its home stadium.
15. Tennessee Volunteers
Average Opponent Win Total: 6.43
Tennessee faces several teams projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC: Mississippi State, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. The Vols meet Georgia and Oklahoma, with both games in Knoxville. The toughest game on the slate might be a road trip to Alamama.
14. Missouri Tigers
Average Opponent Win Total: 6.53
Missouri dodges Texas, Georgia, and LSU at the top of the SEC while getting to play Mississippi State and Vanderbilt at the bottom of the conference. It's a manageable slate for a Missouri team looking for another 10-win season.
13. Ole Miss Rebels
Average Opponent Win Total: 6.64
Ole Miss had one of the easier schedules last year and couldn't take advantage, still missing the playoff. The Rebels have a chance again in 2025. Ole Miss will have to overcome a road trip to Georgia, but it gets LSU and Florida at home.
12. Auburn Tigers
Average Opponent Win Total: 6.87
Auburn will finally look to get it rolling under Hugh Freeze, and the conference schedule gives them a chance to do so. The Tigers play Georgia and Alabama, but the remaining six conference games are winnable. LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss are absent from the schedule.
11. LSU Tigers
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.20
LSU's conference slate will be slightly tougher than it was last year due to locations of the Ole Miss and Alabama games being flipped, but it's still manageable. LSU gets Texas A&M and Florida in Baton Rouge -- both games the Tigers lost last year.
10. Texas A&M Aggies
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.24
Mike Elko had some big moments in his first year at Texas A&M's head coach and the Aggies look primed to compete for a playoff spot in 2025. A&M's first three conference games -- Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida -- are all at home. The Aggies likely won't be underdogs until the fifth game of their SEC slate, which is at LSU on Oct. 25.
9. South Carolina Gamecocks
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.30
South Carolina made headlines by overperforming in 2024, and Shane Beamer hopes to keep that momentum going in 2025. The Gamecocks have tough road games at LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss but they will be heavy favorites vs. Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.39
Georgia had to play at Alabama in 2024, but this year, the Bulldogs get the Crimson Tide at home. UGA is also slated to host Texas and Ole Miss. Georgia was tested on the road last year, so the Dawgs will be glad to play their toughest games between the hedges in 2025.
7. Florida Gators
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.58
Florida's schedule was brutal last year, but it isn't quite as hard in 2025. The Gators get Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee at home. All tough games, but Florida is talented enough to pull an upset in front of the home crowd. The Gators must take a trip to Death Valley after upsetting LSU in Gainesville last year.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.62
Kalen DeBoer missed the college football playoff in his first year leading the Crimson Tide, but expectations are high in year two. Bama's SEC schedule is middle of the pack. Playing at UGA will be Alabama's biggest test, but the Tide avoids Texas and gets LSU at home.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.82
Arkansas must take back-to-back road trips to LSU and Texas in November before finishing the season vs. a solid Missouri squad. Earlier in the year, road games at Ole Miss and Tennessee are on the slate.
4. Kentucky Wildcats
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.90
Kentucky's October is brutal with dates against Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee. The Wildcats open their SEC schedule in week two and won't have much time to prepare for Ole Miss.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Average Opponent Win Total: 7.97
Head coach Jeff Lebby will look to show progress in his second year at the helm. The schedule makes that a tall task, though. Road trips to Texas A&M, Florida, and Missouri are on the slate while the Bulldogs will host Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss.
2. Vanderbilt Commodores
Average Opponent Win Total: 8.01
Vanderbilt's schedule is always tough. The Commodores are typically at the bottom of the conference and that means most teams they play are going to be better. Texas, LSU, and Alabama are all on the slate. The Dores make road trips to South Carolina and Tennessee, too.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
Average Opponent Win Total: 8.44
Oklahoma didn't get a warm welcome to the SEC with a tough schedule last year, and it's a gauntlet again in 2025. The Sooners must play Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU. They also play Missouri and South Carolina -- two programs that competed for playoff spots in 2024.