HEDGE FLOW Hedge funds dumped Japanese stocks ahead of upper house election, says Goldman
Sunday's election dealt a major blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling coalition, just as investors who had been selling Japanese bonds and stocks in the run up to the election had expected.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 (.N225), opens new tab and Topix (.TOPX), opens new tab have dropped 1.7% and 0.6%, respectively so far this month, bucking the rally in other stock markets.
Both indexes closed down on Friday.
Sunday's outcome further weakens Ishiba's grip on power, even though he has vowed to remain party leader to complete trade tariff negotiations with the United States.
The selling by hedge funds between July 11 and July 17 was mainly driven by increased short bets and a relatively moderate reduction in long positions, according to a Goldman Sachs prime brokerage note on Friday, seen by Reuters on Monday.
Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday on Monday, but the yen strengthened while Nikkei futures rose slightly, as the election results appeared to be already priced in.
Overall, hedge funds remain overweight Japan compared to its weight in the MSCI World Index (.MIWO00000PUS), opens new tab by 0.6%, Goldman said.
Analysts said uncertainty about the prime minister's future has increased and could lead to "policy paralysis" and larger fiscal deficits.
"This marks the first time since 1955 that the LDP-led government has fallen below a majority in both the lower and upper house, potentially increasing political instability in Japan," MUFG analysts said in a note.
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