Why NZ's involvement in possible US-Iran war may hang on Europe
Photo:
RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
An expert in warfare law says New Zealand might struggle to stay out of a US-Iran war if the Europeans get involved.
As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, the US has moved
additional fighter jets and ships to the region
and President Donald Trump is warning that "patience is wearing thin".
Professor and specialist in the laws of war, Al Gillespie of Waikato University, said the White House may seek military or diplomatic backing from its partners.
"It will be hard if the Europeans get involved because the the British and the French appear to be willing to deploy something and if we get pulled more towards the European line then it will become harder, and it will depend also what Australia does," he said.
In 2003, New Zealand stood aside from Australia when it joined in the American war on Iraq.
This time around, on the diplomatic front, "I really wouldn't want to call it", Gillespie said.
"We [have] showed a willingness to get involved. We've been involved in the defence of the Red Sea recently. This is a step further. This is a significant step further."
To back an offensive war by the US when other means had not been exhausted would be an "extreme inconsistency" with the government's stated support for the international rules-based order.
Israel's attack was launched when the US and Iran were about to resume talks on Tehran's nuclear programme.
Iran has accused the US of helping Israel
in the attack already, with " weapons, intelligence and political backing".
Legally, Trump would need approval from Congress to launch an offensive war outside the US.
"In theory he can't, but he is very good at trying to sidestep these rules," Gillespie said.
"If he can argue that the United States was at risk and imminent risk, then he could potentially use his authority.
"Congress would probably support him if you put it to them and made the case."
New Zealand was speaking the right language about adhering to the International Court of Justice, and "in theory" an illegal war by Trump could be brought to the UN Security Council, Gillespie said.
The Security Council held an
emergency session
on 13 June where its Under-Secretary-General for political affairs said, "We must at all costs avoid a growing conflagration which would have enormous global consequences."
In 1981, the council condemned an attack by Israel on nuclear site in Iraq.
"You won't get that kind of consensus on the Security Council anymore," Gillespie said.
New Zealand had "lost our voice" recently... such as on the war in Gaza in part, so silence might be an option over Iran, he said.
"I'm not sure whether we would speak with any certainty about the illegality of what's just happened.
"I'd say it's a diplomatic choice, but many of the reasons we do that are so that we don't incur the wrath of Mr Trump.
"There's so many things to balance right now. There's the relationship with China, the relationship with the Middle East, there's the relationship with America, there's trade negotiations, there's security negotiations, there's AUKUS in the background, a lot of things get muddied. And so it's not clear which way New Zealand would go."
Trump's "grand plan for the Middle East" was another unknown quantity.
"No one's quite sure how all this fits into his equations."
Emily Mosley of the Australian Institute of International Affairs said Trump was not all-powerful over Republicans in Congress and this allowed people even outside the US, to look for ways to have influence.
The voting record, in how it sometimes contrasted with the social media posts emanating from the White House, showed there was room for pushback, she told an international affairs conference in Wellington on Tuesday.
"The choice before us is clear: Engage with the whole breadth of American institutions and demand accountability and stability, or panic and risk eroding one of the most effective checks."
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