Nifty seen moving rangebound amid sector rotation; cautious optimism advised
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(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com .)
After a strong move in the week before this one, the Nifty spent the last five sessions largely consolidating in a very defined range.The markets traded with a weak underlying bias and lost ground gradually over the past few days; however, the drawdown remained quite measured and within the expected range. As the markets consolidated, the trading range got narrower.The Nifty moved in a 337-point range during the week. While the Index formed a near-similar high, it marked a much higher low. The volatility also retraced; the India VIX came off by 0.59% to 12.31. While showing no intention to trend higher, the headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 176.80 points (-0.69%).The Nifty has created an intermediate resistance zone between 25600 and 25650. A trending move on the upside would happen only if the Nifty is able to take out this zone on the upside convincingly. Until that happens, we will see the Nifty continuing to consolidate with 25100 acting as support. This is the prior resistance level, which is expected to act as support in case of any corrective retracement. So long as the Nifty is inside the 25000-25650 zone, it is unlikely to develop any sustainable directional bias on either side.Friday was a trading holiday in the US. Because of this, we will not have any overnight cues to deal with on Monday. The Indian markets may see a stable and quiet start. The levels of 25650 and 25800 are likely to act as probable resistance points. Support levels come in at 25250 and 25000.The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. The weekly RSI is 62.40; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. No major formation was noticed on the candles.The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that after breaking above the rising trendline resistance while moving past the 25000-25150 zone, the Nifty consolidated after trending higher for four days. Over the past week, it gave up a portion of its gains and consolidated at higher levels. In the process, it has dragged its support level higher to 25000. As long as the Index remains above this point, the breakout and the resumption of the upmove observed in the preceding week remain valid and intact.Overall, it is expected that the Nifty will remain within the 25000-25650 range over the coming week. The markets are unlikely to develop any directional bias unless they move past the 25650 level or violate the 25000 level. Sector rotation within the market is very much visible; it would be imperative to efficiently rotate sectors and stay invested in those that show improved relative strength and a promising technical setup. We are likely to see improved performance in the Auto, Energy, IT, and broader markets, among other sectors. It is also strongly recommended to protect profits here, where the stocks have run up hard. Any aggressive shorting should be avoided as long as the Nifty stays above the 25000 level. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week.In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index and the Midcap 100 Index are the only two groups that are inside the leading quadrant. They are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.The Nifty Infrastructure Index is experiencing an improvement in its relative momentum while it remains within the weakening quadrant. Additionally, the PSE, Nifty Bank, and the Financial Services Index are located within the weakening quadrant. While individual stock-specific performance may not be ruled out, the overall relative performance may take a backseat.The Commodities Index and the Services Sector Index have rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Consumption, Pharma, and the FMCG Indices also continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. The Metal Index is showing a sharp improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets, while staying within the lagging quadrant.The IT, Energy, Media, Realty, and Auto Indices are inside the Improving quadrant. They continue to rotate firmly while improving their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index.Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Indian Express
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Time of India
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WiFi at 40,000 Feet and Other Modern Tragedies
As the Business Head for The Times of India, I lead strategic initiatives and drive growth for one of the nation's most influential media organisations. My journalist friends believe I've crossed over to the proverbial dark side. Living on the edges of a dynamic newsroom, I dabble infrequently into these times that we live and believe in the spectatorial axiom – 'distance provides perspective'. LESS ... MORE Somewhere over Athens, and very much online. Many years ago — and I say this not with the smugness of an ageing tech evangelist, but the quiet trauma of someone who once had to borrow coins to make an STD call — incoming mobile calls in India were chargeable. Yes, you paid to be yelled at by your boss. The good old days, when guilt came with a per-minute tariff. We had pagers then. Remember those? They were like polite SMSes that said, 'You may now go find a landline, Sir.' We survived Y2K with more drama than disruption, bought calling cards that had expiry dates shorter than milk, and waited at STD booths hoping the person before us didn't have relatives in three continents. Now I'm aboard an Air India Dreamliner headed to Frankfurt — yes, the same airline whose flight recently met a tragic end in Ahmedabad — and somewhere over the Aegean, I make a horrifying discovery. No, not the lavatory. WiFi. Free. Functional. Fatefully fast. No announcement from the cockpit. No warning in the inflight magazine. Just a silent betrayal waiting in the network settings, like a ghost of productivity past. And suddenly, my phone — once nobly in airplane mode — begins to twitch like Frankenstein's monster reanimated. WhatsApp lights up with the precision of German railways. The client from hell has sent three PDFs, four voice notes, and a thumbs-up emoji so sinister it should come with a trigger warning. A cousin texts 'call when you land', the passive-aggressive Indian family version of 'We need to talk.' This, my friends, is what we call progress. Once upon a time, flight meant freedom. You were unreachable. Untouchable. A silhouette gliding above responsibility. Now, you're just a flying node in a 5G matrix, doomed to be responsive at 900 km/h. We used to vanish. Now we merely roam. I blame the Germans. Not for the WiFi — let's be clear, they do infrastructure too well to take the fall for this — but for the global myth that everything must be efficient. That we must respond, submit, update, even at 40,000 feet. Somewhere in Frankfurt, a man in a beige suit and Bluetooth earpiece probably once said, 'Connectivity is not optional.' And that was that. Air India, in its latest attempt to look modern while still serving frozen peas, embraced it. The same airline whose Dreamliner nearly clipped the edge of aviation news doom now makes sure your boss can see two blue ticks before your complimentary beverage arrives. I look out the window. Beneath me, Europe sprawls elegantly like a Thomas Cook brochure from 1997. Inside, I'm in a pressurised metal tube with too many WhatsApp groups and too little legroom. The only thing soaring freely is my anxiety. Would it really hurt to disconnect? To be unreachable — gloriously, unapologetically, untaggable — for six hours? Somewhere, a pager lies in a drawer, still holding its tiny breath. A landline waits patiently for a call that won't come. And me? I ache for silence at 40,000 feet — a luxury we gave up for 5 bars and a delivery report. Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
