IEA raises oil demand growth forecast
In its May report published today, May 15, the agency increased its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing the total to 740,000 bpd. Similarly, the 2026 forecast has been raised to 760,000 bpd, up from the previously estimated 690,000 bpd.
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Arab News
2 hours ago
- Arab News
Middle East gas demand expected to rise by 3.5% in 2026: IEA
RIYADH: The combined gas demand in the Middle East and Africa region is expected to rise by 2 percent in 2025 before accelerating to 3.5 percent in 2026, driven by higher use in the industry and power sector, an analysis showed. In its latest report, the International Energy Agency projected that global gas consumption is projected to reach an all-time high in 2026, with demand growth accelerating to around 2 percent, up from the expected 1.3 percent expansion in 2025. In April, a report by the World Bank echoed similar views, stating that global gas consumption is expected to be moderate in 2025, before rebounding in 2026, due to high demand in markets such as the Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Commenting on the recent report, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said: 'The backdrop for global gas markets is shifting as we enter the second half of this year and look toward 2026. The wave of LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply that is set to come online is poised to ease fundamentals and spur additional demand, especially in Asia.' Sadamori added that the IEA's latest projection on gas demand and consumption is subject to unusually high levels of uncertainty over the global macroeconomic outlook and the volatile geopolitical environment. Natural gas is a significant source of energy for power generation, industrial processes, and heating. It is widely considered a cleaner-burning fuel than coal or oil as the world continues its energy transition journey. The IEA further stated that Asia's gas demand is expected to rise by more than 4 percent in 2026, accounting for around half of the global gas demand growth. In North America, natural gas demand is expected to increase by less than 1 percent next year, primarily supported by the power sector. The report, however, noted that gas demand in Europe is projected to decline by 2 percent next year, amid strong renewable energy output. With global gas consumption expected to reach an all-time high in 2026, usage by industry and the energy sector is forecast to contribute around half of the incremental demand. Gas-to-power demand is projected to account for 30 percent of the total demand growth in 2026, while gas use in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by around 1 percent, assuming average weather conditions prevail. Stable Middle East and energy security According to the latest IEA report, stable geopolitical conditions in the Middle East region are critical to ensure global energy security. 'The conflict between Israel and Iran highlighted the energy interdependencies within the Middle East and the region's crucial role in global oil, natural gas and fertilizer supply security,' said the energy agency. It added: 'The Middle East accounts for 30 percent of global oil and 18 percent of global gas production, almost 25 percent of LNG supplies and around one-third of global urea exports.' According to the study, the crisis in the Middle East region put intense upward pressure on prices, with the Israel-Iran conflict fueling strong price volatility across commodity markets. In the cases of natural gas and urea, higher prices were also supported by actual disruptions to production and physical trade flows. Due to rising security concerns, Israel shut natural gas production at the Leviathan and Karish fields between June 13 and 15 and halted piped gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, which in turn led to the curtailment of fertilizer production. In Iran, attacks damaged a platform at South Pars Phase 14, reducing output by around 12 million cubic meters per day. Production in gas fields and trade flows in the Middle East region were gradually restored following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. 'The initial increase in prices was largely driven by the fear that an escalation of the conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil and LNG chokepoint, which is located between Iran and Oman,' said IEA. Earlier this month, a report released by Rystad Energy, a research and analysis firm, stated that the Middle East region is on track to surpass Asia and become the world's second-largest gas producer by 2025, ranking only behind North America. According to the analysis, gas production in the Middle East has increased by around 15 percent since 2020, and future growth underscores the determination of regional producers to monetize their gas reserves and develop export potential to meet global demand. The analysis added that Iran currently leads the Middle East in gas production, with about 25 billion cubic feet per day, followed by Qatar at 16 bcfd and Saudi Arabia at eight bcfd. LNG supply According to the latest IEA report, global LNG supply in 2026 is projected to rise by 7 percent or 40 billion cubic meters, as new projects are expected to come online in countries including Qatar and the US. Qatar plans to expand its LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 110 mtpa by 2026 and 126 mtpa by 2027, ultimately reaching 142 mtpa by 2030. In March, global credit rating agency Fitch said that state-owned Qatar Energy's North Field projects will support both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon growth from 2025 to 2030. North Field, which holds nearly 10 percent of the world's known LNG reserves, lies off the northeast shore of the Qatar peninsula, covering more than 6,000 sq. km — roughly half the country's land area. For the whole of 2025, global LNG supply is expected to increase by 5.5 percent or 30 bcm, primarily supported by the ramp-ups of major new LNG projects in North America. These projects in North America include the Plaquemines LNG project and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion, as well as LNG Canada.
Al Arabiya
7 hours ago
- Al Arabiya
BP-chartered tanker leaves port of EU sanctioned-Nayara Energy without oil, sources say
Oil tanker Talara, chartered by energy major BP, has left the Vadinar port of newly-sanctioned Indian refiner Nayara Energy without loading diesel as planned, according to five industry sources and shipping data on LSEG. The vessel was supposed to load 60,000 metric tons (447,000 barrels) of ultra low sulphur diesel on July 21 with the cargo bound for Africa, LSEG data showed. Nayara, partly-owned by Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft, and BP did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The sources declined to be named as they were not authorized to speak to the media. The change in loading plan suggests that European Union sanctions imposed on Nayara on Friday are disrupting refined products exports from the Russia-backed refiner, one of the two private fuel exporters in India. The vessel, Talara, did not load the cargo after the EU imposed the sanctions, one of the sources said. The EU sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine was aimed at dealing further blows to Russia's oil and energy industry. BP has since released the ship, making it available for charter within India or Middle East region, two of the sources said. Nayara said in a statement on Monday it condemned the EU's 'unjust and unilateral' decision to impose sanctions on the company, while India said on Friday it did not support the EU's 'unilateral sanctions.'
Saudi Gazette
a day ago
- Saudi Gazette
Saudi Arabia outpaces China and India in renewable energy project costs, says energy minister
Saudi Gazette report RIYADH — Saudi Arabia is now implementing renewable energy projects at costs even lower than China and India, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, emphasizing the Kingdom's global leadership in green hydrogen, battery technologies, and clean energy. 'Saudi Arabia has become cheaper than China and India,' the minister said during the International Workshop on Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Exports held in Riyadh on Sunday. 'As I always say: catch up with us if you can.' '15 gigawatts of renewable energy projects in just one week at the most competitive prices globally — and with pride: catch up if you can!' Minister of Energy speaks today at the International Workshop in Riyadh: 'Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Export' on the Kingdom's... — وزارة الطاقة (@MoEnergy_Saudi) July 20, 2025 Prince Abdulaziz stressed the Kingdom's ability to compete with China even in battery manufacturing, citing the recent project in Bisha and the latest tender round where 'we managed to catch up with China.'The minister highlighted the signing of renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of 15 gigawatts last week, with prices among the most competitive said the Kingdom is executing these projects at exceptionally low costs across both wind and solar power Abdulaziz also confirmed that Saudi Arabia is already exporting green hydrogen and that the country is working on battery projects with a combined capacity of 48 noted that Saudi Arabia is simultaneously advancing carbon capture initiatives, including pipelines and related addition to its renewable energy push, the Kingdom is undergoing an unprecedented expansion in gas production and is enhancing its fleet of power generation units with the most efficient systems available globally.
