COVID cases rise in California. Is this the start of 2025's summer wave?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that infections are now increasing in about half of U.S. states. The agency's latest update, released Friday, pointed to rising activity across more than two dozen states in the Southeast, South and along the West Coast — including California.
Nationally, COVID-19 levels remain in the 'medium' category based on wastewater monitoring. That's up from 'very low' just a week earlier, signaling a clear upward trend.
In California, wastewater surveillance confirmed the virus is spreading.
WastewaterSCAN, a national program that tracks viruses in sewage, reported Monday that 95% of the sites tested in the state showed traces of the virus. The amount detected has increased since June.
'As we have seen in recent years, levels may increase during the summer months,' researchers noted in a July 14 report.
Last month, an average of 150 people died each week from COVID-19, according to the CDC.
Public health experts said the summer rise in cases is likely driven by a mix of factors, including increased travel around the July 4 holiday, large gatherings such as concerts and sporting events, people spending more time indoors during heat waves, and waning immunity among those who were last infected or vaccinated more than six months ago.
Current virus levels are slightly below those recorded at this time last year. While no sharp spike has emerged, the steady rise mirrors familiar seasonal patterns.
Genetic sequencing from wastewater samples shows the LP.8.1 variant is currently dominant, making up 33.2% of sequenced samples, followed by XFG at 24.6%.
The NB.1.8.1 variant — nicknamed 'nimbus' and informally referred to as the 'razor blade throat' variant due to reports of painful sore throats — accounts for 7.5%.
Despite its nickname, there is no strong evidence that NB.1.8.1 causes more severe illness or higher hospitalization rates. Still, public health officials continue to recommend vaccination, testing when symptomatic, and mask use in high-risk settings.
'For those who are older than 65, those who are very immunocompromised, and for pregnant persons and infants— especially under 2 — I would make sure you have received a COVID vaccine at least in the past year,' said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UCSF.
A CDC analysis published Thursday suggests that COVID-19 has now settled into a twice-yearly pattern of surges, typically peaking from July through September and again from December through February.
Scientists attribute this cycle to genetic changes in the virus's S1 region, a key part of the spike protein that enables the virus to bind to human cells.
'Our analysis revealed biannual COVID-19 peaks in late summer and winter, a pattern that is expected to persist as long as the rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and cyclical S1 diversity continues,' the report stated.
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