
Leaders of growing BRICS group gather for Rio summit
With forums such as the G7 and G20 groups of major economies hamstrung by divisions and the disruptive "America First" approach of U.S. President Donald Trump, expansion of the BRICS has opened new space for diplomatic coordination.
"In the face of the resurgence of protectionism, it is up to emerging nations to defend the multilateral trade regime and reform the international financial architecture," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told a BRICS business forum on Saturday.
BRICS nations now represent over half the world's population and 40% of its economic output, Lula noted.
The BRICS group gathered leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China at its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and last year included Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as full members. This is the first leaders' summit to include Indonesia.
"The vacuum left by others ends up being filled almost instantly by the BRICS," said a Brazilian diplomat who asked not to be named. Although the G7 still concentrates vast power, the source added, "it doesn't have the predominance it once did."
However, there are questions about the shared goals of an increasingly heterogenous BRICS group, which has grown to include regional rivals along with major emerging economies.
Stealing some thunder from this year's summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping chose to send his prime minister in his place. Russian President Vladimir Putin is attending online due to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.
Still, many heads of state will gather for discussions at Rio's Museum of Modern Art on Sunday and Monday, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Over 30 nations have expressed interest in participating in the BRICS, either as full members or partners.
Brazil, which also hosts the United Nations climate summit in November, has seized on both gatherings to highlight how seriously developing nations are tackling climate change, while Trump has slammed the brakes on U.S. climate initiatives.
Both China and the UAE signaled in meetings with Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad in Rio that they plan to invest in a proposed Tropical Forests Forever Facility, according to two sources with knowledge of the discussions about funding conservation of endangered forests around the world.
Expansion of the BRICS has added diplomatic weight to the gathering, which aspires to speak for developing nations across the Global South, strengthening calls for reforming global institutions such as the United Nations Security Council and the International Monetary Fund.
The growth of the bloc has also increased the challenges to reaching consensus on contentious geopolitical issues.
Ahead of the summit, negotiators struggled to find shared language for a joint statement about the bombardment of Gaza, the Israel-Iran conflict and a proposed reform of the Security Council, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to speak openly.
To overcome differences among African nations regarding the continent's proposed representative to a reformed Security Council, the group agreed to endorse seats for Brazil and India while leaving open which country should represent Africa's interests, a person familiar with the talks told Reuters.
The BRICS will also continue their thinly veiled criticism of Trump's U.S. tariff policy. At an April ministerial meeting, the bloc expressed concern about "unjustified unilateral protectionist measures, including the indiscriminate increase of reciprocal tariffs."
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Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
The Russian potato shortage that shows Putin's economy is on the brink
When the last leader of the Soviet Union visited Chequers for lunch with prime minister Margaret Thatcher in 1984, one topic of discussion was potatoes. Raisa Gorbachev, the wife of Soviet leader Mikhail, claimed Russia had 300 ways of cooking the humble spud, prompting Michael Jopling, Britain's agriculture minister, to express disbelief. She later posted a Russian cookbook to Jopling with the clarification: 'In fact, there are 500, rather than 300, recipes to cook potatoes.' For Vladimir Putin, Russians' appetite for the vegetable has become problematic, however. Shortages have pushed up prices by 167pc over the past year, the biggest rise of any food. 'It turns out that we don't have enough potatoes,' Putin admitted during a televised meeting in May, adding: 'I spoke with [Belarusian leader] Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko. He said, 'We've already sold everything to Russia.'' Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 made Russia the world's most sanctioned country, eagle-eyed economists have watched closely for signs of economic damage which have proved remarkably elusive. But now surging food prices and labour shortages are keeping inflation high, driving big cracks in the economy. 'We're basically already on the brink of falling into a recession,' economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov told a conference recently. Could Russia's well-oiled war machine be running out of steam? The strain is definitely starting to show, says Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. 'Slowing economic growth coupled with high inflation leaves Russia close to stagflation,' says Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia's central bank. It means Putin is vulnerable. Further falls in oil prices or a tightening of sanctions can now inflict far greater harm than they did previously, Prokopenko warns. 'None the less, we are not quite there yet,' she cautions. Another economist at a European bank, who didn't want to be named, said the waters were still muddied when it came to Russia's economy. 'The momentum is much slower than it used to be. If we look at the deficit, it has been widening. That suggests that despite the fiscal support, which is most likely aimed at military-related areas, the Russian economy is clearly not as robust as it used to be,' they said. In other words, Putin's war economy is likely at capacity: 'The potential to draw more people into the army and military production has been used. There is a limit to how many shifts people can work in factories, producing munitions and military uniforms.' As a result, inflation was running high at 9.9pc in May, fuelled by billions of roubles ploughed into the war effort, worker shortages and other price pressures. To quell it, interest rates are at 20pc, even after a one percentage point cut in June. 'The financial resources are not endless. The central bank, which maintains some sort of independence, has to maintain a very restrictive monetary policy. That lowers the availability of finance for the rest of the economy,' the economist adds. Still, experts caution against concluding this means all Russians must be struggling. Unemployment is hovering around record lows, high interest rates are boosting savings and mortgage borrowers are to some extent shielded. Wages have also surged. 'Yes, inflation has been high in the last three years, but nominal incomes have been growing much faster, therefore the average real wage actually increased quite substantially. I travel to Russia quite often, and there doesn't seem to be any discontent which is about to bubble to the surface,' says Tatiana Orlova, from Oxford Economics. She believes the economy minister's warning of recession was an attempt to cajole the central bank into cutting rates further – a more underhanded attempt than Donald Trump's frequent angry social media outbursts against Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chief. She says that people in some sectors – teachers, doctors and others – will probably feel worse off because of high inflation. But the war has also created a big class of winners in poor towns across Russia. 'The families who are affected by the war because someone has joined the contractual army, for example, are using it as a social lift. The government is paying very high bonuses equivalent to between $20,000 [£14,600] and $35,000 just for signing up,' Orlova says. 'Those fighters are also receiving monthly wages, which are quite above average. So the families are suddenly able to afford more things. They can make a down payment for a new flat or buy a new car. It's a weird paradox that the war actually brought prosperity to families at this horrible cost,' she adds. This is echoed by the other economists who study the Russian economy. The country is experiencing the slow-burn effect of sanctions, but with very different impacts across the population. 'It's important to understand that the Russian households are not poor. The situation is far from catastrophic. The mood from now on will likely deteriorate because of the lack of new stimulus. These are the longer-term consequences of everything that the Russian government put upon itself in 2022,' said another economist. 'The politically liberal middle class that was formed in the early 2000s, which was mostly employed in the private sector, left the country in response to Putin's war. Since 2022, the new middle class has emerged among those beneficiaries [from the war], and they have been upscaling their consumption patterns,' they add. And this brings us back to potatoes. Prices of the beloved vegetable have surged because of poor harvests have reduced supply. They have only just started easing slightly. Bellwether of household finances Any sign of heightened popularity is worth watching: 'Potatoes are a Giffen good. That means if household wealth is going down, then some lower quality products such as potatoes see increasing demand,' the economist says. In other words, if people feel poorer they typically buy more potatoes, making it an unusual bellwether of household finances in a country with sparse reliable data. But says Andrey Sizov, a Russian commodity expert, other food types like butter, eggs and meat have also become much costlier after shortages. This may in fact reflect people trading up from potatoes. 'My speculation is that supply went down, and actually demand went down a little bit. Potatoes are not an expensive food. In the previous two years, it was first of all poor Russians who were making more money. So they could consume something else – less potatoes, more meat and butter, for example,' Sizov says. The humble spud's mixed signals underline that even as Russia's economy has lost momentum, some are feeling the gain and others the pain. But with the longer running toll from sanctions mounting and a costly war nearing its fourth anniversary, Putin has few options to trigger another growth spurt. 'The central bank could cut interest rates. But that would risk another surge in inflation. Another option is for the government to increase spending, but this is also more likely to increase prices than stimulate growth,' says Prokopenko, the former central bank adviser. 'Protectionism is yet another option. But this only works at the expense of consumers. In other words, it is ordinary Russians who will feel the consequences – through either increased prices, falling income, or less choice on the shelves,' she adds. Will the economic strain matter to Putin? He has been emboldened by a friendlier regime in the US under Trump administration, which has just paused some arms shipments to Kyiv. 'I do not see that the finances are at breaking point. This could go on for years,' warns Orlova. 'In Russia, people have very low expectations. They expect their life to be hard. They expect to always fight and find new ways of surviving. So it's just life as usual. When the population has very low expectations, it actually helps those who rule the country to do whatever they want,' she adds.


Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
BRICS demand wealthy nations fund global climate transition
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BBC News
2 hours ago
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Trump threatens extra 10% tariff on nations that side with Brics
US President Donald Trump says countries that side with the polices of the Brics alliance that go against US interests will be hit with an extra 10% tariff."Any country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on comments came after Brics members criticised his tariff policies as well as proposing reforms to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and how major currencies are has long criticised Brics - an alliance designed to boost member nations' standing on the international stage to challenge the US and Western Europe. Last year, the list of Brics members expanded beyond Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).The bloc is said to represent more than half of the world's population. Brics leaders, who started a meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil this weekend, have called for reforms to global institutions and positioned the alliance as a platform for diplomacy amid escalating trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions.