Latvia seeks cooperation from Baltic Sea allies in finding cause of undersea data cable rupture
Siliņa wrote on platform X she was informed in the early hours that the data cable from Latvia to Sweden was damaged in the Baltic Sea 'in the section that is located in the Exclusive economic zone of Sweden.'
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Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Yahoo
Putin is preparing for another invasion while Nato is fatally distracted
At the latest Nato summit in The Hague, the alliance announced that members had set a new target of spending 5 per cent of GDP on defence and security by 2035. In part, this is likely to have been driven by a realisation that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff's shuttle diplomacy and Europe's denunciations of Vladimir Putin will not be enough to end the war in Ukraine. More fundamentally, however, members are waking up to the need to deter Russia from attacking a Nato country – which, according to Mark Rutte, the alliance's secretary-general, it could be ready to do within five years. As a military intelligence analyst specialising in Putin's thinking and Russian military strategy, I agree with Rutte's assessment about Russia's readiness for another offensive military campaign in just a few years. I'm less convinced that a Nato country is likely to be the Kremlin's next target, unless the alliance directly intervenes in Ukraine by deploying troops onto the battlefield. Nevertheless, what Nato does or doesn't do in the next few years could be highly significant in determining whether Putin decides to attack another post-Soviet state – such as Moldova. The problem is that increasing spending on defence and security-related areas will not do the trick on its own. Money and technology, the staples of the West's style of warfare, do not by themselves prevent or win wars. Strategy does. And a successful strategy must be based on a deep understanding of the opponent's way of war, addressing the key elements of its military planning. I briefed Nato members on Russia's war-fighting strategy in September 2013, just months prior to Putin's invasion of Crimea. Regrettably, no counter-strategy was developed by the Pentagon and its Nato counterparts. Hence Putin's invasions. Developed by the Russian General Staff and often dubbed 'asymmetric warfare', Russia's strategy borrows heavily from the classic works of the British strategist Sir Basil Liddell Hart. He advocated indirect methods of fighting the opponent, rather than the brute application of force. The centrepiece of this approach is to bypass the enemy's areas of strength and focus on exploiting weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Obviously, the war in Ukraine has developed into precisely the sort of conflict Russia seeks to avoid. But that doesn't mean that the Kremlin has fundamentally changed its approach to conflict, particularly when facing new opponents. Since Nato militaries are technologically superior to the Russian forces, Moscow knows it will have to rely on seizing the strategic initiative during the initial period of any future war. It will not be seeking a repeat of what has happened in Ukraine. Russian planners therefore envision undermining Nato's network-centric approach to war by disrupting its forces' 'kill chain', the process that enables military decision-making to detect, target, and destroy adversaries. This could be achieved by targeting, perhaps pre-emptively, the C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) and space systems on which Nato forces depend. So Nato members need to do more than spend money. They need to understand what the Russians consider to be the alliance's vulnerabilities, and take action to remove the Kremlin's incentive to exploit them. There are five principal areas that require action. 1. Secure space-related infrastructure Russia has a formidable arsenal of counter-space weapons, designed to degrade or destroy US and allied satellites. It includes GPS-jamming systems, lasers, orbital interceptors, and anti-satellite missiles. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned in its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment that Russia is training its space forces, fielding new anti-satellite weapons, and is already using electronic warfare to counter Western assets. Moscow is also developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon as an anti-satellite capability. 2. Harden critical infrastructure against cyber attacks Russia has one of the world's most destructive arsenals of cyber weapons, a sophisticated doctrine, and advanced expertise. The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment warned about Russia's repeated success in compromising sensitive targets for intelligence collection. Moscow is likely to already have access to critical infrastructure in the US and Europe. Moscow has a particular strength and practical experience in integrating cyber attacks with military operations in wartime. 3. Establish stronger protocols to guard undersea communications cables Russia's General Staff Main Directorate has a highly secretive deep sea research programme, known as GUGI. Moscow is highly likely to have put this expertise into practice, with several suspected sabotage operations of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea since the war in Ukraine began. A similar risk applies to energy pipelines. In October 2022, the UK Ministry of Defence acknowledged that a Royal Navy frigate was deployed to the North Sea to assist Norwegian forces in protecting gas pipelines, after the rupture of Nord Stream in the Baltic. 4. Bullet-proof against Russian espionage It hardly needs saying that Russia routinely infiltrates spies all across Europe and recruits locals to steal military, political, and economic secrets. But Moscow has also been able to insert intelligence operatives to conduct destabilisation operations, targeting critical infrastructure. Some estimates suggest that such sabotage operations almost quadrupled in number between 2023-24. Multiple arrests have taken place, including in Germany, Poland, and the UK. But the alliance must take a more pro-active approach, neutralising and disrupting Russia's espionage operations before they are able to do damage. 5. Establish advantage in total combat potential Having moved onto a war footing several years prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia now produces more ammunition in three months than Europe does in one year. Scaling up production of air defence systems, tanks, drones, and ammunition is imperative for Nato to catch up to Russia and restock its depleted arsenals. Weapons don't shoot themselves, however. The alliance must recruit, train, and equip a fighting force sufficient to change Putin's decision calculus. Moscow has been mobilising overtly and covertly throughout its three and a half year war in Ukraine. And on Tuesday, a bill was submitted to the State Duma introducing year-round conscription for military service. If approved and signed by Putin, the law will come into effect on Jan 1, 2026. In Europe, only a few countries have mandatory military service, and so far most of the others are not considering it. But in a war of attrition, such as the one Russia is fighting in Ukraine, the side that has more manpower is better positioned to win. The good news is that the alliance has time to get its act together to prevent another invasion. It would be tragic if the alliance fails to step up to the plate now, especially given the colossal price Ukraine is paying to defend itself against the Russians. Nato owes it to all those dead Ukrainians and their families to develop a viable counter-strategy to Putin's playbook. Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst, formerly with the US Defense Intelligence Agency. She is the author of 'Putin's Playbook', Regnery 2021. Her next book 'Trump's Playbook' will be published later this year. Rebekah's podcast Trump's Playbook is running on her channel Censored But Not Silenced and is available on most social media platforms @Rebekah0132. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
The Hill
10 hours ago
- The Hill
The next generation of leaders learn that Radio Free Europe is worth saving
It was an early morning, 12 days and three cities into our summer study abroad, yet my very tired students were at our hostel door, on time and dressed nicely, as warned. Our group, from a regional state university, had snagged an invitation to the Resilient Europe conference at Prague's 17th century Czernin Palace. Once there, the students perked up, dazzled by being in the same room as the Czech minister of foreign affairs and 150 other government and non-governmental experts from the European Union and NATO. They were clearly the only college students in the room. Later, one student showed me his notes. At the top, he'd written simply 'Russia = Bad.' I laughed, but it wasn't untrue. One after another, government officials from the Czech Republic, Latvia, Ukraine, Moldova, Lithuania and Estonia described relentless Russian election interference. Russian digital misinformation had provoked a 2021 migrant crisis in Europe, which has only worsened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year later. The point of the conference was for participating democracies to learn strategies from one another, because 'the information arena is a crucial battlefield,' one representative said. Ironically, they announced, the Czech foreign ministry's email account had become the victim of a cyberattack just the night before, albeit by China. One of those crucial battlefields in the information arena was our next stop. We had arranged to visit the headquarters of Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty across town, which was still open only because of a court challenge to the Trump administration's decision to take away its congressionally appropriated funding. Radio Free Europe, which provides uncensored, trusted news to audiences in 23 countries where a free press is nonexistent or under threat, is still at risk even after furloughing staff, reducing programming and letting go of hundreds of freelancers. Again, my students were awestruck, but for different reasons. First, by the numerous searches and scans to get into the compound housing the news agency. And second, by the reasons for the high security: Trump isn't the only person who wants to kill it. Nineteen of its journalists have been killed — five since 2018 — by regimes that do not want their people to have real news. Another three of its journalists remain unjustly imprisoned in Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan. Most Americans know little about this historic service because the news it does isn't aimed at us, though it can be accessed in English on the Radio Free Europe website. My students were clearly proud that the U.S. government pays for real, independent journalism that reaches 47 million people each week in their own languages. Some of those people find Radio Free Europe at great risk. In Belarus, for instance, just following or liking something on Radio Free Europe's social media can land you in prison, we were told. Yet, they don't have any alternative, truthful source of information. This means that Radio Free Europe's Belarussian journalists (now working in Prague) know they can never go back to their home country without being arrested and imprisoned by a president who doesn't want real news. For doing this job, they might never see their families again. 'Our journalists really feel the mission,' said Jakub Tesar, the fellowships and academic relations officer for Radio Free Europe. 'We just always have to make sure the people who work for us understand the risk.' Yet, under President Trump this spring, the U.S. Agency for Global Media inexplicably disconnected satellites carrying Radio Free Europe to Russia, so its reach there has decreased. Such decisions have thrilled Russia, where regime officials told The Moscow Times that they were glad to see the service defunded, particularly because it reaches Russians without abiding by state censorship. The message got through to my students, who called the tour a 'privilege.' One later wrote that 'a lot of dangerous and powerful people … stand to gain by silencing the truth which these journalists seek out, often causing them to put their lives on the line for their work.' In summing up her study abroad, she wrote that she'd found a deeper respect for journalism, which is so much under threat. 'I just hope they know that there are people and students (like us) who support the work that they do each and every day,' she wrote. 'I couldn't even imagine cutting funding for an organization that brings unbiased media to places that don't have it.'
Newsweek
10 hours ago
- Newsweek
Poland Strikes It Rich With Largest Ever Oil Discovery
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The discovery in Poland of one of Europe's most significant conventional oil finds in a decade has been welcomed as a step toward energy security in the NATO country. Central European Petroleum (CEP), a Calgary-based company with Norwegian backing, announced the find at the Wolin East 1 (WE1) well, four miles from the Baltic Sea port city Świnoujście in the northeast of the country. However, energy expert Thomas O'Donnell told Newsweek Thursday that the discovery was "not a game changer." Nevertheless, one think tank in Germany has warned that the discovery could come with substantial costs to tourism and environmental protection. When contacted by Newsweek, the Polish foreign ministry referred to foreign minister Radosław Sikorski's X post that said: "God probably really loves the (coalition) government." Crude oil tanks are seen near a cemetery a few dozen kilometers from Gdansk in Poland on June 6, 2022. Crude oil tanks are seen near a cemetery a few dozen kilometers from Gdansk in Poland on June 6, It Matters In a statement to Newsweek, CEP said that once the Wolin East deposit is officially confirmed it will be Poland's largest oil and associated natural gas field. With the potential to more than double Poland's current estimated oil reserves, it will boost the energy security of a NATO member on the alliance's eastern flank and diversify its fuel sources. What To Know CEP, which holds a 100 percent stake in the Wolin lease area, said it had made a significant oil discovery in the Wolin East 1 (WE1) well, about four miles offshore from the city of Świnoujście on the Baltic Sea. Preliminary estimates suggest the site contains 22 million tons of recoverable crude oil and condensate, along with 5 billion cubic meters of commercial-grade natural gas. These make it the most significant conventional oil discovery in Poland's history and one of the most significant in Europe in recent years. Berlin-based energy expert Thomas O'Donnell told Newsweek the site may produce up to 35,000 barrels a day which is "a fairly good sized well in Texas, but that's not a game changer" amid estimates that this would provide five percent of Poland's needs. However, there could be further oil to discover and the find showed Poland's commitment to find indigenous sources of oil and gas. Poland is a net importer of oil and so the more it can produce itself, the more it will help with the country's balance of payments. This has knock-on benefits in terms of the price of goods and curbing inflation, O'Donnell said. Increased oil production offshore will also focus minds on how to protect energy assets in the Baltic Sea from sabotage, following a number of attacks blamed on Moscow recently, he added. However, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has warned that exploiting the discovery in Poland's section of the Baltic Sea could come with substantial costs to tourism and environmental protection. DIW researcher Claudia Kemfert said in a statement that any accidents would come with high cross-border clean-up costs and fossil energy extraction "runs counter to climate protection targets" and so "extraction therefore cannot be recommended." What People Are Saying Rolf G. Skaar, CEO of CEP said in a statement: "We view this discovery as a foundation for long-term, responsible development of Poland's offshore resources. Wolin East is more than just a promising field – it represents a shared opportunity to unlock the full geological and energy potential of the Baltic Sea." Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said on X, formerly Twitter: "Sławosz flies to space, Iga wins Wimbledon, the EU predicts a ton of money for (Poland) and now this too. God probably really loves the KO-PSL-PL2050-Lewica (coalition) government." As well as referring to the oil discovery, the post also mentions Polish astronaut Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski and tennis player Iga Swiatek. Energy analyst Thomas O'Donnell told Newsweek: "This is not a game changer, but as far as politics is concerned this shows Poland's commitment to find oil and gas wherever it can." DIW researcher Claudia Kemfert said in a statement that the environmental costs "outweigh the benefits. Extraction therefore cannot be recommended." What Happens Next Further geological documentation must be prepared, submitted, and approved before extraction can start. Piotr Woźniak, former CEO of Polish oil and gas company Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), told Euronews CEP will want to raise funds quickly and document the deposit so that it has full rights to it and the legal ability to exploit it. However, there is also a potential environmental challenge from a German organization, Lebensraum Vorpommern, over concerns about the potential impact of gas extraction.
