Three bets for York and Newcastle tomorrow
The training talents of Ed Bethell and the spending power of Wathnan Racing could prove to be a lethal combination in the years ahead. Both are hugely ambitious and knowledgeable when it comes to all aspects of horse racing.
Tomorrow PABORUS, the horse that Wathnan bought earlier this season from his original syndicate owners for an undisclosed sum, runs at York in the Group 3 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (2.25 p.m.)
Bethell will have been delighted to have added Wathnan to his growing list of patrons. This is racing stable of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, which celebrated five winners at this month's Royal Ascot meeting, including Group 1 success with Lazzat in Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.
I can see Paborus, an improving four-year-old gelding, establishing himself as a proper Group horse this season and next if he stays fit and well. It's interesting that he has been given an entry in the Group 2 HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood next month and Group 1 ambitions could eventually be realistic too.
Paborus has a fair bit to find on official ratings tomorrow with the likes of Lake Forest. I had intended to put him up each way but the 6-1 available yesterday morning has long gone so instead, at shorter odds, the suggestion is two points win at 4-1 with bet365. If Paborus is as good as connections think he is, I can see Wathnan Racing having more horses with Bethell.
At a much bigger price at York in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap (1.55 p.m.), I am going to take a chance on VICARIO for the Ed Walker/Kieran Shoemark trainer/jockey combination. This duo had a winner at Royal Ascot last week with Noble Champion in the Jersey Stakes and Walker has been admirably loyal to Shoemark during the rider's troubled season.
Admittedly, Vicario, a four-year-old filly, has been disappointing so far this season but as a result she is down to her last winning mark of 83. Back her one point each way at 33-1 with Paddy Power or Sky Bet, both paying a generous four places. If the horse has fallen out of loving with racing, then so be it but at that price I will take the risk.
Over at Newcastle, the course hosts the JenningsBet Northumberland Plate which is the only all-weather race of the entire flat season that I study closely to try to find the winner. Most all-weather racing has little appeal for me.
I have already put up three bets for the race over the past month. Two are looking promising as Duke of Oxford, suggested at 33-1, is now no bigger than 10-1 and Who's Glen, put up at 16-1, is now vying for favouritism at no bigger 5-1. Sadly, Caballo de Mer, put up at 10-1 after his Royal Ascot second, is being given a break by his handler George Scott and so that bet is lost.
There is, however, one other horse that I am backing at Newcastle: NATIVE WARRIOR, another purchase for Wathnan Racing but this time trained by a different talented northern-based handler in the shape of Karl Burke.
I put this horse up at 50-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot but he failed to make the cut for the contest and then suffered the same fate in the Buckingham Palace Stakes later in the week.
I would have preferred to see him run on turf and over a mile whereas tomorrow's contest – the Pertemps Network Handicap (3.45 p.m.) – will be his first race on the all-weather for well over a year (when he ran modestly) and the contest is over just seven furlongs.
However, Burke will have had this horse primed for last week and so I hope he will race prominently and make tomorrow's race a real test. Back him two points win at 5-1, a price offered by most firms – win only because if he dislikes the artificial surface, he may be out with the washing.
I am keen on another couple of bets at York too – this time ante-post wagers on the John Smith's Cup, a competitive and valuable handicap over more than 10 furlongs run on Saturday July 12.
Regular readers of this blog will know that I like to look for horses that have good form at York for races at this track, particularly the bigger handicaps. For some reason, many horses fail to act on the Knavesmire, as the track is affectionately known.
Karl Burke's THUNDER RUN is two from two at the track most recently winning the Knights Solicitors Handicap last month off a mark of 100. He has been raised just 4 lbs for that comfortable win which seems lenient. Back him 1 point each way at 12-1 with Ladbrokes, Coral or BetMGM, all paying four places.
But I want to go in double-handed for this event with Ed Bethell's SEE THAT STORM, who was second to the John and Thady Gosden trained Burrito over course and distance earlier this month. The latter has picked up a penalty for winning that race which should enable See That Storm to turn the tables on 5lbs better terms.
Back See The Storm 1 point each way at 14-1 with Betfred or Star Sports, both paying four places.
Last weekend: – 7.8 points.
1 point each way Babouche at 4-1 in the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Oolong Poobong at 11-1 for the Sandringham, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 4th. + 1.2 points.
1 point each way Sea Poetry at 50-1 for the Sandringham, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Elite Status at 25-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Topgear at 7-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Vicario at 33-1 for the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
2 points win Paborus at 4-1 for the Criterion Stakes.
1 point each way Duke of Oxford at 33-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Who's Glen at 16-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2 points win Caballo de Mar at 10-1 for the Northumberland Plate.
2 points win Native Warrior at 5-1 for the Pertemps Network Handicap.
1 point each way Thunder Run at 12-1 for the John Smith's Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way See That Storm at 14-1 for the John Smith's Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2025 flat season running total: + 37.06 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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